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Thread: New report on climate change released today

  1. Top | #1331
    Veteran Member George S's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bilby View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by George S View Post
    Once a source has been wrong - stupidly, obviously and unashamedly wrong - many, many times over, without a hint of apology or self-correction (despite a vast body of refuting evidence), that source can be dismissed without examination from future consideration.

    In the HIGHLY unlikely event thst the "wattsupwiththat" blog were to post some genuinely compelling evidence, it would still be most effective to ignore it, and to obtain that new evidence from a less tainted source.

    tl;dr - I am not going to waste an instant of my life on that site, and will therefore not be clicking your link.
    Okay, Executive summary.
    Article 1 from fronteirsinscience claimed that no model could support AGW due to error-bar propagation.
    Article 2 from wattsupwiththat says, no, climate models don't work that way. There is no error-bar propagation, errors cancel out.

  2. Top | #1332
    Elder Contributor angelo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZiprHead View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by angelo View Post

    Pure unadulterated bullshit! There is FA evidence for even a half % of increase or intensity of any storm or tornado world wide. In fact there's been less as if nature is also calling it for what it is=Bullshit!
    Prove it.
    Okay, A blind link which I know you hate, but it's too long to copy and paste. Now, keep in mind the rising population and major development of most of the country resulting in more damage and or causalities.

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publication...y/tor30yrs.pdf

  3. Top | #1333
    Loony Running The Asylum ZiprHead's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by angelo View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ZiprHead View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by angelo View Post

    Pure unadulterated bullshit! There is FA evidence for even a half % of increase or intensity of any storm or tornado world wide. In fact there's been less as if nature is also calling it for what it is=Bullshit!
    Prove it.
    Okay, A blind link which I know you hate, but it's too long to copy and paste. Now, keep in mind the rising population and major development of most of the country resulting in more damage and or causalities.

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publication...y/tor30yrs.pdf
    It's not a blind link when you explain what's in it. Thank you for doing so.

    That article is about tornados, not the severity of tropical storms and hurricanes. My link talked directly about the severity of the storms themselves.

    So, you have again failed.
    ITMFA

    When conservatives realize they cannot win democratically, they will not abandon conservatism. They will abandon democracy.

    You submit to tyranny when you renounce truth. - Timothy Snyder

  4. Top | #1334
    Fair dinkum thinkum bilby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by George S View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by bilby View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by George S View Post
    Once a source has been wrong - stupidly, obviously and unashamedly wrong - many, many times over, without a hint of apology or self-correction (despite a vast body of refuting evidence), that source can be dismissed without examination from future consideration.

    In the HIGHLY unlikely event thst the "wattsupwiththat" blog were to post some genuinely compelling evidence, it would still be most effective to ignore it, and to obtain that new evidence from a less tainted source.

    tl;dr - I am not going to waste an instant of my life on that site, and will therefore not be clicking your link.
    Okay, Executive summary.
    Article 1 from fronteirsinscience claimed that no model could support AGW due to error-bar propagation.
    Article 2 from wattsupwiththat says, no, climate models don't work that way. There is no error-bar propagation, errors cancel out.
    Meh. Models are not assessed by navel gazing.

    Climate models (like all models) are assessed by whether their predictions are accurate.

    You look at the real world, and see if it matches the predictions made years ago. Then you run the model again. If the short term predictions from the first run are correct, and the medium term predictions from the first run match the short term predictions of the sevond run, and the long term predictions of the first run match the medium term predictions of the second run, then you can be fairly confident in them. If not, not.

    Climate modelling has been around for long enough to test it against reality. We know it works.

  5. Top | #1335
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    Is there somewhere an article to read comparing old predictions to current measurements?

  6. Top | #1336
    Administrator lpetrich's Avatar
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    NASA's Long-Term Climate Predictions have Proven to be Very Accurate, Within 1/20th of a Degree Celsius - Universe Today
    The measurements clearly show that Earth is warming in lockstep with our carbon emissions. Since 1880, the Earth’s temperature has risen just over one degree Celsius, or two degrees Fahrenheit. And the most recent years are some of the warmest on record. That makes sense, since our emissions continue to rise.

  7. Top | #1337
    Elder Contributor angelo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bilby View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by George S View Post

    Okay, Executive summary.
    Article 1 from fronteirsinscience claimed that no model could support AGW due to error-bar propagation.
    Article 2 from wattsupwiththat says, no, climate models don't work that way. There is no error-bar propagation, errors cancel out.
    Meh. Models are not assessed by navel gazing.

    Climate models (like all models) are assessed by whether their predictions are accurate.

    You look at the real world, and see if it matches the predictions made years ago. Then you run the model again. If the short term predictions from the first run are correct, and the medium term predictions from the first run match the short term predictions of the sevond run, and the long term predictions of the first run match the medium term predictions of the second run, then you can be fairly confident in them. If not, not.

    Climate modelling has been around for long enough to test it against reality. We know it works.
    Climate modeling and the actual climate in the last few decades has a chasm between them as wide as the Grand Canyon!

  8. Top | #1338
    Elder Contributor angelo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lpetrich View Post
    NASA's Long-Term Climate Predictions have Proven to be Very Accurate, Within 1/20th of a Degree Celsius - Universe Today
    The measurements clearly show that Earth is warming in lockstep with our carbon emissions. Since 1880, the Earth’s temperature has risen just over one degree Celsius, or two degrees Fahrenheit. And the most recent years are some of the warmest on record. That makes sense, since our emissions continue to rise.
    Excuse me, but are you aware or ignoring the fact that the planet is still coming out of the last mini ice age?

  9. Top | #1339
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    Quote Originally Posted by angelo View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by lpetrich View Post
    NASA's Long-Term Climate Predictions have Proven to be Very Accurate, Within 1/20th of a Degree Celsius - Universe Today
    The measurements clearly show that Earth is warming in lockstep with our carbon emissions. Since 1880, the Earth’s temperature has risen just over one degree Celsius, or two degrees Fahrenheit. And the most recent years are some of the warmest on record. That makes sense, since our emissions continue to rise.
    Excuse me, but are you aware or ignoring the fact that the planet is still coming out of the last mini ice age?
    Which doesn't explain the speed of warming that we have seen. You've never addressed the right hook in that XKCD.

  10. Top | #1340
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    Quote Originally Posted by angelo View Post
    Climate modeling and the actual climate in the last few decades has a chasm between them as wide as the Grand Canyon!
    If you say so.

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