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Thread: How likely is it that the world will successfully manage to stave off (the worst of) global warming?

  1. Top | #31
    Elder Contributor DBT's Avatar
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    Given the current trends, climate, population, consumption, etc, it's hard to imagine what the world will look like in the next fifty to a hundred years.

  2. Top | #32
    Elder Contributor barbos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by skepticalbip View Post
    OTOH

    https://www.iflscience.com/environme...-ice-age-2030/

    Thanks To Reduced Solar Activity, We Could Be Heading For A Mini Ice Age In 2030

    Life on Earth has always been dependent on the conditions of the Sun, so scientists spend a lot of time studying its activity. A recent announcement from solar scientists suggests that the Sun may soon enter a period of significant reduced activity, possibly causing a mini ice age by 2030 – just 15 years from now.

    These predictions were announced at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno, Wales, so it hasn't been possible to evaluate the research yet. However, Professor Valentina Zharkova from the University of Northumbria who made this announcement claims that the findings come from a computer model of sunspots that has made "unprecedentedly accurate predictions," as reported in The Telegraph.

    The model has shown to have a 97% accuracy when mapping the past movements of sunspots, using data of solar cycles from 1976 to 2008. And if this reliability continues, then the model also has some alarming predictions for the future: a mini ice age sometime around the 2030s.

    ....snip....
    At most it will delay shit hitting the fan by 10 years. But what I find interesting is that the real Ice age will happen regardless of the global warming. It's still thousands of years away but imagine half of the Europe and north of the US under permanent snow. Of course at the same time Middle East and Sahara would probably be much more livable place.
    Last edited by barbos; 12-13-2018 at 05:05 PM.

  3. Top | #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by barbos View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by skepticalbip View Post
    OTOH

    https://www.iflscience.com/environme...-ice-age-2030/

    Thanks To Reduced Solar Activity, We Could Be Heading For A Mini Ice Age In 2030

    Life on Earth has always been dependent on the conditions of the Sun, so scientists spend a lot of time studying its activity. A recent announcement from solar scientists suggests that the Sun may soon enter a period of significant reduced activity, possibly causing a mini ice age by 2030 – just 15 years from now.

    These predictions were announced at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno, Wales, so it hasn't been possible to evaluate the research yet. However, Professor Valentina Zharkova from the University of Northumbria who made this announcement claims that the findings come from a computer model of sunspots that has made "unprecedentedly accurate predictions," as reported in The Telegraph.

    The model has shown to have a 97% accuracy when mapping the past movements of sunspots, using data of solar cycles from 1976 to 2008. And if this reliability continues, then the model also has some alarming predictions for the future: a mini ice age sometime around the 2030s.

    ....snip....
    At most it will delay shit hitting the fan by 10 years. But what I find interesting is that the real Ice age will happen regardless of the global warming. It's still thousands of years away but imagine half of the Europe and north of the US under permanent snow. Of course at the same time Middle East and Sahara would probably be much more livable place.
    10 years coulod be crucial in order for us to avert climate change. That mini ice age could very well be a savior.

  4. Top | #34
    Veteran Member bleubird's Avatar
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    Bump:https://www.carbonbrief.org/restorin...ses-every-year
    Also there is a doc on netflix called "
    Kiss the Ground"

  5. Top | #35
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    It is already upon us in a big way. The general public does not seem all that concerned.

    In Africa food security is dropping, crop failuers.

    Coffee production based on the Arabica strain is expectd to drop by as much as 50%, can't take the heat. There is a report of a strain once thought extinct that tolerates temperature that has bee found in the wild.

    California was running out of water for farming before droughts and climate change.

    American farmers are facing crop failures due to plant intolerance.

    NYC is figuring out how to sel the subways during hgih water storms. some areas are being evacuated.

    The Columbia river that waters eastern Washington farms is expected to draw down due to reduced snow packs.

    Miami is moving inland and raising roads.

    Islands are disappearing.

    From the general reporting. Saw the coffee story recently on BBC news.

    Is it reversible to begin with?

  6. Top | #36
    Elder Contributor DBT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by barbos View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by skepticalbip View Post
    OTOH

    https://www.iflscience.com/environme...-ice-age-2030/

    Thanks To Reduced Solar Activity, We Could Be Heading For A Mini Ice Age In 2030

    Life on Earth has always been dependent on the conditions of the Sun, so scientists spend a lot of time studying its activity. A recent announcement from solar scientists suggests that the Sun may soon enter a period of significant reduced activity, possibly causing a mini ice age by 2030 – just 15 years from now.

    These predictions were announced at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno, Wales, so it hasn't been possible to evaluate the research yet. However, Professor Valentina Zharkova from the University of Northumbria who made this announcement claims that the findings come from a computer model of sunspots that has made "unprecedentedly accurate predictions," as reported in The Telegraph.

    The model has shown to have a 97% accuracy when mapping the past movements of sunspots, using data of solar cycles from 1976 to 2008. And if this reliability continues, then the model also has some alarming predictions for the future: a mini ice age sometime around the 2030s.

    ....snip....
    At most it will delay shit hitting the fan by 10 years. But what I find interesting is that the real Ice age will happen regardless of the global warming. It's still thousands of years away but imagine half of the Europe and north of the US under permanent snow. Of course at the same time Middle East and Sahara would probably be much more livable place.
    It appears that an ice age can become established within decades or less:

    Quote:
    ''Starting roughly 12,800 years ago, the Northern Hemisphere was gripped by a chill that lasted some 1,300 years. Known by scientists as the Younger Dryas and nicknamed the "Big Freeze," geological evidence suggests it was brought on when a vast pulse of fresh water — a greater volume than all of North America's Great Lakes combined — poured into the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans.

    This abrupt influx, caused when the glacial Lake Agassiz in North America burst its banks, diluted the circulation of warmer water in the North Atlantic, bringing this "conveyer belt" to a halt. Without this warming influence, evidence shows that temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere plummeted.''

    Previous evidence from Greenland ice samples had suggested this abrupt shift in climate happened over the span of a decade or so. Now researchers say it surprisingly may have taken place over the course of a few months, or a year or two at most.

    "That the climate system can turn on and off that quickly is extremely important," said earth system scientist Henry Mullins at Syracuse University, who did not take part in this research. "Once the tipping point is reached, there would be essentially no opportunity for humans to react."

    For two years, isotope biogeochemist William Patterson at the University of Saskatchewan in Canada and his colleagues investigated a mud core — a tube of mud — taken from the ancient lake Lough Monreach in Ireland. Because this sediment was deposited slowly over time, each layer from this core effectively represents a snapshot of history, with slices just a half-millimeter thick presenting one to three months.''

  7. Top | #37
    Veteran Member bleubird's Avatar
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    This could be good for Alaska.
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...OlAas4iG_lkGhA
    Scroll down to Melting ice.

  8. Top | #38
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    Alaska villages on the coast ae going underwater.

    As the Alaskan tundra thaws sequestered CO2 is released. A runaway scenario.

  9. Top | #39
    Veteran Member bleubird's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by steve_bank View Post
    Alaska villages on the coast ae going underwater.

    As the Alaskan tundra thaws sequestered CO2 is released. A runaway scenario.
    Oh, I am very aware of the situation. They are not going under water,so much as the shore line is eroding because ice protects them from storms.
    I was thinking short term.We need a deep water port for the traffic and the USCG has some new icebreakers coming.

  10. Top | #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by steve_bank View Post
    History tells us that while science has largely replaced superstition, human nature remains the same. Greed, power and the rest.

    Overcoming human inertia and entropy tales consistent organized cooperative effort which the post WWII years show is near imposable. Russia and China are seeking empire and dominance and will not work with the USA.
    ...
    All human organization's are always the same.
    ...
    It will not take much to bring the west into chaos.
    While it is true that short-term self-interest will dominate the behavior of most human individuals and profit-making companies, I think it is wrong to extend this to "all human organizations."

    The European Community, for example, has pushed for humanitarian values and is actively reducing CO2 emissions. The Gates Foundation and the United Nations are other counterexamples.

    Pessimism may indeed be warranted. Benevolence of the Chinese and American governments can hardly be taken for granted. The modern ease of spreading disinformation has shown how precarious democracy and democratic values are. But "All human organization's are always the same" is much too strong a statement, and is not a path to the hopeful planning we need now.

    ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

    Quote Originally Posted by DBT View Post
    ... It appears that an ice age can become established within decades or less:

    Quote:
    ''Starting roughly 12,800 years ago, the Northern Hemisphere was gripped by a chill that lasted some 1,300 years. Known by scientists as the Younger Dryas and nicknamed the "Big Freeze," geological evidence suggests it was brought on when a vast pulse of fresh water — a greater volume than all of North America's Great Lakes combined — poured into the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans.
    Scientists have long known that global warming will cause melting of Greenland's ice which in turn will interfere with the movement of the ocean's heat to Europe. But it is average global temperature that is key to the climate crisis.

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