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Thread: What would the world look like If Germany would have won WWI?

  1. Top | #11
    Fair dinkum thinkum bilby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrZoidberg View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by bilby View Post
    It was the long war, with its massive casualties, huge demand for materials, and massive influence on technologies that laid the ground for the rise of labour as a force (both political and revolutionary), and for the influence of demagogues from the lower classes of society, including Hitler and Mussolini.
    That's interesting. Socialism as a reaction to just the amount of pain the working class had to endure. Makes a lot of sense imho. I am sceptical though. Socialism was a major political force from mid 19'th century onward. While I'm sure WWI gave it a push. I wonder if this boat wasn't heading straight for the iceberg. The question was where it'll hit, rather than if.
    Not so much as a reaction to the trauma, though that's part of it; More that so many were absent that those who remained - even women - realised their value. That so few of those who left for war returned home able to work only added to this.

    Add to this that the security forces were badly weakened with their best men at the front; And then the fact that the class division between senior officers and the junior officers and enlisted men was made so stark at the front, causing even the more faithful to question their place in society, and the progress of labour against the establishment was at the very least hugely accelerated by the war.
    Quote Originally Posted by bilby View Post
    The development of atomic weapons may well have been significantly delayed - maybe to the 1960s or '70s - and would almost certainly have occurred in Germany. Their development during peacetime would potentially be disastrous - WWII ended with just two nukes being used in anger, and that example was sufficient to prevent WWIII, but had two or more nuclear armed states arisen without that example, a much more extensive first nuclear exchange would seem likely to have occurred.
    9'th March, the fire bombing of Tokyo. Casualities 100 000
    6'th August, nuclear bombing of Hioshima. Casualities 120 000
    9'th August, nuclear bombing of Nagasaki. Casualities 80 000

    While nuclear weapons have a huge psychological impact. We're fully able to kill people just as well with conventional means.
    Not with one plane per city though. That's the real deterrent with nuclear weapons - the impossibility of preventing or mitigating the total destruction of a city. Ballistic missiles make the situation even more stark. The V2 was unstoppable, but it only carried a couple of tons of high explosives. It's the combination of the two that lets things get so scary that even the war hawks think twice.
    I don't think we're out of the woods when it comes to WWIII. The rise of China seems hard to stop at the moment and Russia is taking every chance they get to grab more land.
    Perhaps. But deterrence remains a factor. Nobody wants to use nukes first, knowing that to do so would lead to massive retaliation.

    India and Pakistan might nuke each other in a limited exchange without causing a world war, but even there the leaders on both sides know that their personal survival is far from assured.

    It's a LOT easier to order aggression that might get millions of your troops or even civilians killed, than it is to order aggression that will damage your entire nation beyond repair, and almost certainly lead to your own death, and that of your family.

  2. Top | #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by just_me View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by steve_bank View Post
    Germany would have developed nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic misses. They were working on ICBMs to hit the YSA.

    Heisenberg was working on the German atomic program but post war it was found they were far behind the USA. They would have gotten it eventually.

    After that world domination.

    It would be genocide in Europe beyond the death camps. The plan was always to depopulate areas for expansion of German population. Ukraine initially treated the Germans as liberators from Russia.

    The original VW Bug was meant to be cheap transportation on a new highway system.
    All of your replies are post WWII. The thread is about the first world war, not the second.
    My mistake. If the Germans had won until an eventual WWII that swept away the aristocratic systems the chronic quest for hegemony and empire would continue.

    As weans technology advanced eventually there would have been an apocalyptic scale conflict. Germany and neighbors were a tangled mess of political, aristocratic, and military factions until Hitler brutally suppressed it all.

    Up until WWII the Europeans in a sense enjoyed war. As it became clear war was coming there were parades. Men put on old uniforms and medals on the eve of WWI. That mentality would have persisted.

    People thought there would be battles, a treaty, everybody would shake hands and go home. Parades and parties.

    When Goering was in custody post WWII he thought he'd have dinner and drinks with his British captors and then go home. That was the aristocratic cavalier WWI attitude.

    Both sides were spent. European royals and aristocrats were all linked by blood. The same nonsense and arrogance would continue until the next war or the rise of new authoritarian regimes. Like the Soviets.

    The best book I read on it was Diplomacy by Kissinger. He went through all the swirling currents in the 19th and 20th century up to WWI.

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    Administrator lpetrich's Avatar
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    I think that eastern Europe is the most interesting place in such a scenario.

    The Central Powers will likely control some additional territory there. Most likely Poland, and likely also the Baltic states, eastern Ukraine, and/or Belarus. Will Germany and Austria-Hungary annex any of this territory? Or turn it into puppet states?

    Something like Treaty of Brest-Litovsk or Mitteleuropa

    That, I suspect, would likely be a setup for further strife and war, since those people may not appreciate German rule, and since Russia might pose as their "liberator".

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    Contributor DrZoidberg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lpetrich View Post
    I think that eastern Europe is the most interesting place in such a scenario.

    The Central Powers will likely control some additional territory there. Most likely Poland, and likely also the Baltic states, eastern Ukraine, and/or Belarus. Will Germany and Austria-Hungary annex any of this territory? Or turn it into puppet states?

    Something like Treaty of Brest-Litovsk or Mitteleuropa

    That, I suspect, would likely be a setup for further strife and war, since those people may not appreciate German rule, and since Russia might pose as their "liberator".
    But the Central Powers did win in Eastern Europe. So not sure what you think would be different?

  5. Top | #15
    Fair dinkum thinkum bilby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrZoidberg View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by lpetrich View Post
    I think that eastern Europe is the most interesting place in such a scenario.

    The Central Powers will likely control some additional territory there. Most likely Poland, and likely also the Baltic states, eastern Ukraine, and/or Belarus. Will Germany and Austria-Hungary annex any of this territory? Or turn it into puppet states?

    Something like Treaty of Brest-Litovsk or Mitteleuropa

    That, I suspect, would likely be a setup for further strife and war, since those people may not appreciate German rule, and since Russia might pose as their "liberator".
    But the Central Powers did win in Eastern Europe. So not sure what you think would be different?
    I think the critical differences only arise in the event of a quick win by the Central Powers. If Germany defeats France in 1914, and then demolishes the Russian imperial forces in 1915 (or even by the end of 1914), the Romanovs could sue for peace (indeed they would have no other option), leaving the Bolshevik movement stillborn. And Russia remains an imperial autocracy well into the twentieth century.

    That totally changes the Eastern European picture.

  6. Top | #16
    Contributor DrZoidberg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bilby View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by DrZoidberg View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by lpetrich View Post
    I think that eastern Europe is the most interesting place in such a scenario.

    The Central Powers will likely control some additional territory there. Most likely Poland, and likely also the Baltic states, eastern Ukraine, and/or Belarus. Will Germany and Austria-Hungary annex any of this territory? Or turn it into puppet states?

    Something like Treaty of Brest-Litovsk or Mitteleuropa

    That, I suspect, would likely be a setup for further strife and war, since those people may not appreciate German rule, and since Russia might pose as their "liberator".
    But the Central Powers did win in Eastern Europe. So not sure what you think would be different?
    I think the critical differences only arise in the event of a quick win by the Central Powers. If Germany defeats France in 1914, and then demolishes the Russian imperial forces in 1915 (or even by the end of 1914), the Romanovs could sue for peace (indeed they would have no other option), leaving the Bolshevik movement stillborn. And Russia remains an imperial autocracy well into the twentieth century.

    That totally changes the Eastern European picture.
    The Bolshevik/Russian communism movement didn't arise as a result of WWI. They were the result of Russia's loss to Japan in 1905. Or rather, it's rapid rise in popularity. The Russian communist party (which later became the Bolsheviks) was founded in 1898 for the same reason communist parties were formed all over Europe. Russia was late on the ball. The Russian communist party already had a lot of support well before WWI. Anarchist attacks was an epidemic. Tsar Alexander II had been assassinated by anarchists in 1881. He was the most liberal Tsar Russia had had. Nicholai II's response was to become extremely conservative. Which was exactly the wrong thing to do.

    I think most historians agree that Tsar Nicholai II was on the wrong side of history, and everybody saw it. He was strangling his own country. He also, very much, lived in a bubble. Unwilling to see reality. If it hadn't been the Bolsheviks, it would have been some other communists. If it hadn't been during WWI, it would have been some other time. Very likely the results would have been similar. Quite possible with less land losses. It's also quite possible that a revolution in Russia could have triggered WWI.

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