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Thread: Pete Buttigieg

  1. Top | #131
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    Quote Originally Posted by southernhybrid View Post
    Black voters are an extremely important part of the Democratic party and I doubt many of them are crazy about Mayor Pete.
    And worse, here's the breakdown on whites vs blacks in regard to approval of "gay marriage" from PEW:

    Today, 64% of whites support same-sex marriage, as do 51% of blacks.
    Iow, 49% of blacks do NOT approve of "gay marriage" and since the majority of blacks are Dems, that's a huge percentage.

    My biggest concern is that white, college educated millennials will vote for him in record turnouts in the primaries because he's gay (aka, novelty vote) and thereby make him our candidate in the general. Primaries are notoriously low priorities among Dem voters in particular and usually only appeal to the older voters, who, in this case, are the very ones most in danger of not showing up.

    So a falsely motivated younger Millennial vote combined with a much lower turnout among party loyalists could easily result in Buttigeig taking the primaries. And then we're truly fucked.

    I know I've thrown a lot of percentages around, but this is the most straightforward bunch from a 2017 PEW poll specifically on various social issue, such as gay marriage:

    About seven-in-ten (73%) Democrats and independents (70%) favor same-sex marriage.
    So that, of course, also means 27% of Democrats overall do not and 30% of Independents overall do not. From another PEW study, we know that Independents are the largest voting bloc:

    In Pew Research Center surveys conducted in 2017, 37% of registered voters identified as independents, 33% as Democrats and 26% as Republicans. When the partisan leanings of independents are taken into account, 50% either identify as Democrats or lean Democratic; 42% identify as Republicans or lean Republican.
    So, again, we're looking at a very large percentage of registered left-leaning voters that either won't vote or might actually swing to Trump (among Independents in particular) for one reason and one reason only; gay.

    And there's this in regard to 2020 specifically:

    While demographic changes unfold slowly, it’s already clear that the 2020 electorate will be unique in several ways. Nonwhites will account for a third of eligible voters – their largest share ever – driven by long-term increases among certain groups, especially Hispanics.
    ...
    In raw numbers, a projected 32 million Hispanics will be eligible to vote in 2020, compared with 30 million blacks. The population of Asians eligible to vote will reach an estimated 11 million in 2020, which is more than double the 5 million who were eligible to vote in 2000, accounting for 5% of next year’s electorate.
    ...
    Voter turnout will play an important role in determining the relative electoral influence of different racial and ethnic groups. For example, while Hispanics will outnumber blacks among eligible voters next year, they may not actually cast more ballots than blacks due to different turnout patterns. In recent presidential elections, blacks were substantially more likely than Hispanics to vote. Indeed, the number of Hispanic eligible voters who didn’t vote has exceeded the number of those who did vote in every presidential election since 1996.
    ...
    Another important long-term trend is the overall aging of the electorate. In 2020, nearly a quarter of the electorate (23%) will be ages 65 and older, the highest such share since at least 1970. This reflects not only the maturation of the large Baby Boom generation but also increased life expectancy among older Americans.

    Baby Boomers and older generations, who will be ages 56 and older next year, are expected to account for fewer than four-in-ten eligible voters in 2020
    ...
    The next presidential election will also mark the first time that Millennials (who will be ages 24 to 39 in 2020) will account for a slightly smaller share of the electorate than they represented in the last presidential election. The raw number of Millennials eligible to vote is increasing due to foreign-born Millennials naturalizing to become citizens. But the Millennial share of the electorate has peaked as they are not growing as fast as the electorate overall.
    ...
    Differences in turnout rates again matter when talking about generations and should be kept in mind as election season gets underway. Since older adults are more likely to turn out to vote, it’s possible that older generations will form a larger share of actual voters in 2020 than their share in the electorate. That’s what happened in 2016: Even though Boomers and older generations accounted for 43% of eligible voters, they cast 49% of the ballots.
    So, Millennial voters will actually account for a smaller share, because of Gen Z (who won't vote in large numbers either), but, again, the ones who actually vote--and therefore are the most reliable indicators--are still the older generations (mine, X and the boomers + silent).

    If just 10% of that 52% total left-leaning registered voters don't vote (or, worse, swing right), that drops us down to parity with Republicans and will likely mean Trump remains.

    All for something that has nothing to do with policy and therefore can't ever be debated or talked out. It's just a fundamental quality that has the very real potential of alienating a huge percentage of reliable Dem voters.

    Hopefully, it will motivate enough of those reliable voters to vote against him in the primaries and what he will have accomplished is to lay the groundwork for him to run in the only logical election for him (i.e., 2028). The other biggest problem, however, is that because he is the greatest threat to our retaking the WH, he is likely already being slotted into both the Russian and the GOP influencing machine--which, by now, since nothing has been done to stop the Russians--is a finely honed and far more efficient machine than the one deployed against us in 2016.

    So its effects are likely exponentially more pronounced and far better targeted.
    Last edited by Koyaanisqatsi; 04-22-2019 at 03:59 PM.

  2. Top | #132
    Content Thief Elixir's Avatar
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    I'm waiting for some reported to ask him if being gay is too much baggagieg.

  3. Top | #133
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    I reviewed my analysis of "The 5 Corners Of The 2020 Democratic Primary" at FiveThirtyEight, and some related articles.

    That 538 article identified five main Democratic voting blocs: Millennials, The Left, Party Loyalists, Hispanics, and Blacks. From the 538 team's assessment of each candidate's appeal to different blocs, I worked out which blocs liked to vote together and which ones in different directions.

    I used a data-mining technique called principal components analysis, a technique which is essentially fitting data points to a multidimensional ellipsoid and then finding that ellipsoid's axis directions and lengths. I found:
    • In the largest component, The Left and Party Loyalists tend to vote in opposite directions. Millennials and Blacks were weakly on the side of the Left, and Hispanics were neutral.
    • In the second-largest component, Hispanics voted much like Blacks, with Millennials and Party Loyalists voting weakly with them, and The Left being a bit against.

    According to that article, PB himself appeals most strongly to Millennials, less strongly to Blacks and Hispanics, and in between to The Left and Party Loyalists.

  4. Top | #134
    Veteran Member PyramidHead's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lpetrich View Post
    According to that article, PB himself appeals most strongly to Millennials, less strongly to Blacks and Hispanics, and in between to The Left and Party Loyalists.
    Latest Iowa poll:

    Attached Images Attached Images

  5. Top | #135
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    n/m

  6. Top | #136
    Administrator lpetrich's Avatar
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    Here is a table of all the 538 staff's estimations of the candidates' appeals to various Democratic voting blocs:
    Candidate Mill Left PrLo Hisp Blak
    Joe Biden 2.5 2.0 4.5 2.5 3.5
    Kamala Harris 3.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 5.0
    Beto O'Rourke 4.5 2.0 4.0 4.0 2.0
    Bernie Sanders 4.0 5.0 1.0 2.0 2.0
    Cory Booker 4.0 2.0 3.5 3.0 4.5
    Julian Castro 3.0 2.5 3.0 5.0 2.5
    Elizabeth Warren 3.5 4.5 3.0 2.0 2.0
    Amy Klobuchar 2.5 2.0 5.0 2.0 2.0
    Kirsten Gillibrand 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
    Sherrod Brown 2.5 4.5 4.0 2.0 3.0
    Jay Inslee 3.5 3.5 3.0 2.0 2.0
    Steve Bullock 3.0 2.5 3.0 2.0 2.0
    John Hickenlooper 3.5 2.0 3.5 2.5 2.0
    Mitch Landrieu 2.0 1.5 3.0 2.0 3.5
    Michael Bloomberg 2.5 1.0 3.0 2.5 2.5
    Pete Buttigieg 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0
    Bill de Blasio 2.5 4.5 2.0 3.5 3.5
    Eric Garcetti 3.0 2.5 3.0 4.0 2.5
    Andrew Gillum 3.0 4.5 1.5 2.5 5.0
    Stacey Abrams 4.0 4.5 2.0 2.5 5.0
    Terry McAuliffe 2.0 1.0 3.5 3.0 3.5
    Andrew Cuomo 2.0 1.5 4.0 3.5 3.5
    Howard Schultz 2.0 1.5 2.5 2.0 2.0
    Oprah Winfrey 4.0 2.5 2.5 3.0 5.0
    Tulsi Gabbard 3.0 3.5 1.0 3.5 2.5
    Richard Ojeda 2.5 4.0 2.5 2.0 2.0
    John Delaney 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.0 2.5
    Note: these identities are not necessarily exclusive.

  7. Top | #137
    Senior Member Brian63's Avatar
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    That lists Oprah Winfrey on it. Is it out-of-date, or in error, or voters thinking she is going to change her mind or something?

  8. Top | #138
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    Here are the above numbers, in easier-to-read form:
    Candidate Mill Left PrLo Hisp Blak
    Joe Biden ##+ ## ####+ ##+ ###+
    Kamala Harris ###+ ### ###+ #### #####
    Beto O'Rourke ####+ ## #### #### ##
    Bernie Sanders #### ##### # ## ##
    Cory Booker #### ## ###+ ### ####+
    Julian Castro ### ##+ ### ##### ##+
    Elizabeth Warren ###+ ####+ ### ## ##
    Amy Klobuchar ##+ ## ##### ## ##
    Kirsten Gillibrand ### ### ### ### ###
    Sherrod Brown ##+ ####+ #### ## ###
    Jay Inslee ###+ ###+ ### ## ##
    Steve Bullock ### ##+ ### ## ##
    John Hickenlooper ###+ ## ###+ ##+ ##
    Mitch Landrieu ## #+ ### ## ###+
    Michael Bloomberg ##+ # ### ##+ ##+
    Pete Buttigieg ###+ ##+ ##+ ## ##
    Bill de Blasio ##+ ####+ ## ###+ ###+
    Eric Garcetti ### ##+ ### #### ##+
    Andrew Gillum ### ####+ #+ ##+ #####
    Stacey Abrams #### ####+ ## ##+ #####
    Terry McAuliffe ## # ###+ ### ###+
    Andrew Cuomo ## #+ #### ###+ ###+
    Howard Schultz ## #+ ##+ ## ##
    Oprah Winfrey #### ##+ ##+ ### #####
    Tulsi Gabbard ### ###+ # ###+ ##+
    Richard Ojeda ##+ #### ##+ ## ##
    John Delaney ## ## ##+ ## ##+

  9. Top | #139
    Administrator lpetrich's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brian63 View Post
    That lists Oprah Winfrey on it. Is it out-of-date, or in error, or voters thinking she is going to change her mind or something?
    The list's creators wanted to take into account the possibility that she might enter the race. Some people speculate that she might do so, because of her wealth and fame -- just like Donald Trump.

  10. Top | #140
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    Quote Originally Posted by PyramidHead View Post
    I recommend this Current Affairs article on him and his book for a start. A bit long but comprehensive and worth the read. The short answer is he is essentially no different from the dogshit DNC-approved candidates running to the right of Warren and Sanders; all are morally bankrupt. In addition to what's in the article about his basic blindness to issues of class and race, he's an apologist for American imperialism. He's on record saying that the clemency given to Chelsea Manning, and not the war crimes she bravely and heroically exposed, is "troubling" to him. He unquestioningly supports Israel.

    He's Hillary 2020. He checks all the boxes that dull, mediocre people think are important while not offering anything substantive that isn't also awful.
    That is the only article I have read about Pete and I think the following quote is spot on.

    Mayor Pete does not have an entirely different story than any other politician in our lifetime. He has the same story they all have. David Axelrod has gushed: “His story is an incredible story.” Is it? The son of two professors at an elite university goes on to several different elite universities, serves an uneventful seven-month tour of duty in the Navy, and then becomes the technocratic mayor of the city his parents’ university is in? Ilhan Omar has an entirely different story than any other politician. So does Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. This man is the story of the American elite.

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