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Thread: Republicans 2020

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    Administrator lpetrich's Avatar
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    Republicans 2020

    I have decided to create a companion thread for Democrats 2020. I first note Republican Coronation 2020? about RNC to push undivided support for Trump reelection, state leaders consider canceling caucuses - ABC News

    But some Republican politicians have shown some interest in challenging President Trump (pResident tRump?). Last month, former Massachusetts governor William Weld entered the race, running as a moderate. Bill Weld, Larry Hogan, John Kasich opening for Trump challenge in New Hampshire - Washington Times
    Fergus Cullen, a GOP fixture in New Hampshire politics, sent out 150 invites to his house party for Bill Weld, the first Republican to announce a primary challenge to President Trump.

    No fan of the president, Mr. Cullen didn’t go out of his way to invite die-hard Trump supporters, and some simply couldn’t make it. But more than 60 people showed up and — most notably — only three declined with some version of “Thanks, but I’m with Trump.”
    John Kasich Warns That Russia Is Still Meddling in U.S. Elections, but ‘Nobody Is Doing Anything About It’

    Larry Hogan derides Trump as ‘dear leader’ - POLITICO

    Bob Corker: Primary challenger for Trump would be ‘good thing for our country’ - POLITICO
    However,
    Corker: 'I just don't' see path to challenge Trump in 2020 | TheHill
    "I think for someone to undertake that, they have to feel there's at least somewhat of an opportunity to actually be elected," Corker, a fierce critic of Trump's, told reporters after a speech at the Nashville Rotary Club, according to The Times Free Press. "I see no point in just doing it to [run], you know, I just don't."

    ...
    Corker repeatedly criticized Trump during the first two years of his presidency, and occasionally sparred with the president over their differences. Corker once referred to the White House as an "adult day care center."
    Some possible candidates have stated that they will not run, like Mitt Romney and Jeff Flake.

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    It's going to be Trump. US Republicans are the equivalent of the Middle Ages Christianity. Christian Talibanism if you will. To question their Dear Leader is heresy!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Patooka View Post
    It's going to be Trump. US Republicans are the equivalent of the Middle Ages Christianity. Christian Talibanism if you will. To question their Dear Leader is heresy!

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    Administrator lpetrich's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patooka View Post
    It's going to be Trump. US Republicans are the equivalent of the Middle Ages Christianity. Christian Talibanism if you will. To question their Dear Leader is heresy!
    Cute. I've discovered some Trumpies who share those sentiments, calling his challengers RINO's - Republicans in Name Only, or rhinoceroses, fake elephants.

    But more seriously, a primary challenger likely means inadequate support. So I will look at the track record of presidents seeking re-election.
    • 1956 - Dwight Eisenhower - primary popular vote 86%. Lost only the states with favorite-son challengers - won
    • 1972 - Richard Nixon - primary popular vote 87%, delegates all but one out of 1324 - won
    • 1976 - Jerry Ford - primary popular vote 53%, delegates 1187 out of 2258, challenger: Ronald Reagan - lost
    • 1980 - Jimmy Carter - primary popular vote 51%, challenger: Teddy Kennedy - lost
    • 1984 - Ronald Reagan - primary popular vote 99%, delegates all but two out of 2235 - won
    • 1992 - George Bush I - primary popular vote 73%, challenger: Pat Buchanan - lost
    • 1996 - Bill Clinton - primary popular vote 89%, challenger: Lyndon Larouche - won
    • 2004 - George Bush II - primary popular vote 98% - won
    • 2012 - Barack Obama - primary popular vote 89% - won

    • Victories: 86%, 87%, 89%, 89%, 98%, 99%
    • Defeats: 51%, 53%, 73%

    So even if Trump wins the nomination, a strong showing by a challenger will indicate vulnerability for him.

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    Content Thief Elixir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lpetrich View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Patooka View Post
    It's going to be Trump. US Republicans are the equivalent of the Middle Ages Christianity. Christian Talibanism if you will. To question their Dear Leader is heresy!
    Cute. I've discovered some Trumpies who share those sentiments, calling his challengers RINO's - Republicans in Name Only, or rhinoceroses, fake elephants.

    But more seriously, a primary challenger likely means inadequate support. So I will look at the track record of presidents seeking re-election.
    • 1956 - Dwight Eisenhower - primary popular vote 86%. Lost only the states with favorite-son challengers - won
    • 1972 - Richard Nixon - primary popular vote 87%, delegates all but one out of 1324 - won
    • 1976 - Jerry Ford - primary popular vote 53%, delegates 1187 out of 2258, challenger: Ronald Reagan - lost
    • 1980 - Jimmy Carter - primary popular vote 51%, challenger: Teddy Kennedy - lost
    • 1984 - Ronald Reagan - primary popular vote 99%, delegates all but two out of 2235 - won
    • 1992 - George Bush I - primary popular vote 73%, challenger: Pat Buchanan - lost
    • 1996 - Bill Clinton - primary popular vote 89%, challenger: Lyndon Larouche - won
    • 2004 - George Bush II - primary popular vote 98% - won
    • 2012 - Barack Obama - primary popular vote 89% - won

    • Victories: 86%, 87%, 89%, 89%, 98%, 99%
    • Defeats: 51%, 53%, 73%

    So even if Trump wins the nomination, a strong showing by a challenger will indicate vulnerability for him.
    Ford, Carter and Bush 1 didn't have foreign adversaries working for them to rig both the election itself and the social landscape. That's the difference.

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    Administrator lpetrich's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elixir View Post
    Ford, Carter and Bush 1 didn't have foreign adversaries working for them to rig both the election itself and the social landscape. That's the difference.
    True, but such people would want a big victory in the primaries also.

    More generally, one has to watch out for the difference between correlation and causation. If A and B is correlated, it is only sometimes true that A causes B. Likewise, it is sometimes true that B causes A, sometimes true that A and B have a cause separate from them, and sometimes true that that correlation is a coincidence.

    I suspect that the correlation here is a case of external causation: how strongly the president is supported more generally.

    But the attempts to cancel caucuses suggests that the Trumpies may want to hide poor support for their hero.

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    Administrator lpetrich's Avatar
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    Ex-Kasich adviser backs out of $350G Russia lobbying gig, vows 'laser focus' against Trump in 2020 | Fox News
    Gov. John Kasich 'seriously look at' running for president in 2020, says dysfunction in Washington is 'very disturbing'

    The Ohio governor speaks out on 'Fox News Sunday' on his timeline for making a decision to challenge President Trump.

    A former campaign adviser for John Kasich said Thursday that he’s backing out of a $350,000 contract to lobby against sanctions on behalf of a Russian state-owned nuclear energy company, vowing instead to put a "laser focus" on helping prevent President Trump's re-election.

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    Veteran Member seyorni's Avatar
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    Trump need only start a war. Wartime presidents always get re-elected.

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    Content Thief Elixir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lpetrich View Post
    I suspect that the correlation here is a case of external causation: how strongly the president is supported more generally.
    Agreed. The Russian influence is brought to bear directly on that "external" factor. Strong support in the form of irrational fervor is a product of the effort, and that fervor converts to turnout.

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    Industrial Grade Linguist Copernicus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seyorni View Post
    Trump need only start a war. Wartime presidents always get re-elected.
    He seems to be thinking along those lines with Iran. As the investigations close in, I fear that it is more likely he will see this as the ultimate distraction.

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