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Thread: Republicans 2020

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    Administrator lpetrich's Avatar
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    I remember when the right wing dismissed Bill Clinton's wars as "wag the dog" distractions. That's after a movie called "Wag the Dog" where a US President starts a war to distract everybody from his troubles.

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    Administrator lpetrich's Avatar
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    The End of the Republican Trump Resistance - The Atlantic - "The last two serious prospective primary challengers to the president have dropped out, even as an appetite remains for a rival among Republican voters."
    If you’re looking for a date to chisel on the gravestone of the Republican resistance to President Donald Trump, June 1, 2019, will work nicely.

    That’s the day that Maryland Governor Larry Hogan told The Washington Post, “I’m not going to be a candidate for president in 2020.” The day before, former Ohio Governor John Kasich also closed the door, which was only very slightly ajar, on his own 2020 run. “There is no path right now for me. I don’t see a way to get there,” Kasich said on CNN. “Maybe somebody wants to run and make a statement, and that’s fine, but I’ve never gotten involved in a political race where I didn’t think I could win.”
    That leaves Bill Weld.

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    Administrator lpetrich's Avatar
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    Republicans Unveil Donald Trump Statue As 2020 Election Campaign Begins, Praise President's 'Accountability and Transparency'
    Republican Party supporters in Oklahoma marked the official start of President Donald Trump's 2020 election campaign by unveiling a statue of the divisive leader, named "The President Who Loved America."

    ...
    But the tone of Trump's 2020 launch was somewhat less positive. The president's speech at his rally in Orlando, Florida, was peppered with misinformation about his Democratic opponents, vilification of the media and attacks former special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.
    Bill Weld is barely making any news. One of the most recent articles on his candidacy: Trump challenger Weld renews calls for his resignation after comments on political opponent | TheHill

    Presidential candidates, 2020 - Ballotpedia -- all 25 Democratic candidates and 2 Republican ones. 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries and 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries

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    Content Thief Elixir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lpetrich View Post
    Republicans Unveil Donald Trump Statue As 2020 Election Campaign Begins, Praise President's 'Accountability and Transparency'
    Republican Party supporters in Oklahoma marked the official start of President Donald Trump's 2020 election campaign by unveiling a statue of the divisive leader, named "The President Who Loved America."

    ...
    But the tone of Trump's 2020 launch was somewhat less positive. The president's speech at his rally in Orlando, Florida, was peppered with misinformation about his Democratic opponents, vilification of the media and attacks former special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.
    Bill Weld is barely making any news. One of the most recent articles on his candidacy: Trump challenger Weld renews calls for his resignation after comments on political opponent | TheHill

    Presidential candidates, 2020 - Ballotpedia -- all 25 Democratic candidates and 2 Republican ones. 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries and 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
    Republicans don't want to upset the Emperor, and Democrats don't want to have to run against a possibly rational person, so... Weld shall be ignored.
    (Or some might say "All's well that ends Weld.")

  5. Top | #15
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    Has a sitting president ever been primaried going into their second term? Would it be a first?

  6. Top | #16
    Veteran Member Sarpedon's Avatar
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    Its fairly common. Those who have trouble with the challenger are generally defeated. Ford, Carter, and Bush 1 were all primaried and had difficulty defeating them.

    I don't think any sitting president has ever lost the primary since the 19th century. I'm not even sure if it happened then, as things were different back then when it came to how nominations were made.

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    Administrator lpetrich's Avatar
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    Presidents who ran for re-election and what challengers in their party they had when doing so.

    1912: William Howard Taft: Theodore Roosevelt, Robert M. La Follette. Prim pop: 34.6%, conv dels: 53%, conv vote: 77%. He loses, though TR became a third-party spoiler
    1916: Woodrow Wilson: (none). He wins.
    1924: Calvin Coolidge: Hiram Johnson, Robert M. La Follette. Conv vote: 96%. He wins.
    1932: Herbert Hoover: John J. Blaine, Joseph I. France, James Wolcott Wadsworth, Jr. Conv vote: 98.0%. He loses.
    1936: Franklin Delano Roosevelt: Henry Skillman Breckinridge. Conv vote: 100%. He wins.
    1940: Franklin Delano Roosevelt: John Nance Gardner, James Farley. Conv vote: 87%. He wins.
    1944: Franklin Delano Roosevelt: (Harry Byrd). Conv vote: 92%. He wins.
    1956: Dwight David "Ike" Eisenhower: (none). He wins.
    1964: Lyndon Baines Johnson: Pat Brown, George Wallace, Sam Yorty. Prim pop: 31%, conv vote: 100%. He wins.
    1972: Richard Milhous Nixon: Pete McCloskey, John Ashbrook. Prim pop: 92%, prim dels: 99.92%, conv vote: 99.92%. He wins.
    1976: Gerald Rudolph Ford: Ronald Reagan. Prim pop: 53.3%, conv vote: 52.6%. He loses.
    1980: Jimmy Carter: Teddy Kennedy, Jerry Brown, Cliff Finch. Prim pop: 54.75%, conv vote: 64.04%. He loses.
    1984: Ronald Wilson Reagan: Harold Stassen, Ben Fernandez. Prim pop: 99.63%, conv vote: 99.91%. He wins.
    1992: George Herbert Walker Bush: Pat Buchanan, David Duke, Pat Paulsen, Harold Stassen, Jack Fellure. Prim pop: 74.54%, conv vote: 99.13%. He loses.
    1996: William Jefferson Clinton: Lyndon LaRouche. Prim pop: 89.0%, conv vote: 99.72%. He wins.
    2004: George Walker Bush: (none). He wins.
    2012: Barack Hussein Obama: (none). He wins.
    (Unpledged delegates ignored in vote counts)

    Jerry Ford, Jimmy Carter, George Bush I, and William Taft had sizable primary challenges, and they all lost. All the winners won nearly 100% in the primaries and conventions, with the exception of LBJ. Herbert Hoover won big in the convention, but nevertheless lost in the general election.

  8. Top | #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elixir View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by lpetrich View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Patooka View Post
    It's going to be Trump. US Republicans are the equivalent of the Middle Ages Christianity. Christian Talibanism if you will. To question their Dear Leader is heresy!
    Cute. I've discovered some Trumpies who share those sentiments, calling his challengers RINO's - Republicans in Name Only, or rhinoceroses, fake elephants.

    But more seriously, a primary challenger likely means inadequate support. So I will look at the track record of presidents seeking re-election.
    • 1956 - Dwight Eisenhower - primary popular vote 86%. Lost only the states with favorite-son challengers - won
    • 1972 - Richard Nixon - primary popular vote 87%, delegates all but one out of 1324 - won
    • 1976 - Jerry Ford - primary popular vote 53%, delegates 1187 out of 2258, challenger: Ronald Reagan - lost
    • 1980 - Jimmy Carter - primary popular vote 51%, challenger: Teddy Kennedy - lost
    • 1984 - Ronald Reagan - primary popular vote 99%, delegates all but two out of 2235 - won
    • 1992 - George Bush I - primary popular vote 73%, challenger: Pat Buchanan - lost
    • 1996 - Bill Clinton - primary popular vote 89%, challenger: Lyndon Larouche - won
    • 2004 - George Bush II - primary popular vote 98% - won
    • 2012 - Barack Obama - primary popular vote 89% - won

    • Victories: 86%, 87%, 89%, 89%, 98%, 99%
    • Defeats: 51%, 53%, 73%

    So even if Trump wins the nomination, a strong showing by a challenger will indicate vulnerability for him.
    Ford, Carter and Bush 1 didn't have foreign adversaries working for them to rig both the election itself and the social landscape. That's the difference.
    Carter did--Iran in collusion with the Repugs.

  9. Top | #19
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    Republican Presidential Candidates for 2020

    Will John Kasich challenge Trump for the nomination for what would be Trump's second run in the general and second presidential term?

    Will Ted Cuz?

    Will anybody else? Will there be a challenge to Trump or will he sail through straight to the general?

  10. Top | #20
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    I didn't spot the other thread already started for this. Please delete or merge this thread to it.

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