View Poll Results: Will there EVER be a return to sanity/progressivism?

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  • after 2020

    3 15.00%
  • after 2024

    0 0%
  • after some future election

    1 5.00%
  • never

    5 25.00%
  • only after ecological or economic tragedy

    9 45.00%
  • after ecological or economic tragedy there will be full bore fascism

    2 10.00%
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Thread: Will The Oligarchy that owns the US eeeevvvvveerrrrrr be slightly reined in?

  1. Top | #51
    Administrator lpetrich's Avatar
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    As I was perusing The National Hispanic Institute's pages, I found something very interesting and relevant here. What it is:
    NHI VISION - NHI is a leading organization that fosters future community leaders for the expanding Latino community throughout the United States and Latin America.

    MISSION - NHI creates experiences that engage achieving high school and college age youth in community leadership roles that advance our quality of life.
    It was apparently started in 1979, and one of its founders had this to say about its founding:
    I personally witnessed the decline of leadership after the 1960s. To me, that was very significant, because we were used to a lot of activity in the neighborhood, and a lot of the nonprofit organizations doing that just shut their doors almost overnight. They were tired from the Civil Rights Movement, emotionally and physically.
    I've emphasized the last sentence.

  2. Top | #52
    Administrator lpetrich's Avatar
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    How history predicts the 2020 election (and the next 40 years)
    Misha Leybovich proposes a cyclic theory much like Steven Skowronek's, but with more president types:
    • Transformer: Founder of the Era, from Party A.
    • Continuer: Sidekick from Party A carrying the torch.
    • Triangulator: Party B adjusting.
    • Reimaginer: Party A’s second wind.
    • Precursor: Party B’s next Era preview.
    • Ender: Party A winding down the Era.

    The next President of the United States will be a transformational progressive. This person will shape American politics for the next 40 years. Here’s why.

    ...
    I started by framing elections in terms of disruptive cycles, and which presidents represented a transformational era change. The ones who defined the political conversation for the next several decades. Going backwards, it seems like the consensus is: Reagan (1980), FDR (1932), TR (~1900), Lincoln (1860), Jackson (1828), and Washington (1788).
    He then filled in the blanks, Skowronek fashion. He also gave one-word names to the eras, eras that roughly correspond to party systems.

    Founding Era (40 yrs):
    • Tfm none Washington
    • Ctn F JAdams
    • Tra DR Jefferson
    • Rei DR Madison
    • Prc DR Monroe
    • End DR JQAdams

    Populist Era (32 yrs):
    • Tfm D Jackson
    • Ctn D VanBuren
    • Tra W WHarrison, Tyler
    • Rei D Polk
    • Prc W Taylor, Fillmore
    • End D Pierce
    • End D Buchanan

    Realignment Era (40 yrs):
    • Tfm R Lincoln, AJohnson
    • Ctn R Grant
    • Ctn R Hayes
    • Ctn R Garfield, Arthur
    • Tra D Cleveland
    • Rei R BHarrison
    • Prc D Cleveland
    • End R McKinley

    Progressive Era (32 yrs):
    • Tfm R TRoosevelt
    • Ctn R Taft
    • Tra D WIlson
    • Rei R Harding
    • Rei R Coolidge
    • End R Hoover

    Collectivist Era (48 yrs):
    • Tfm D FDRoosevelt
    • Ctn D Truman
    • Tra R Eisenhower
    • Rei D Kennedy
    • Rei D LBJohnson
    • Prc R Nixon, Ford
    • End D Carter

    Individualist Era (40 yrs):
    • Tfm R Reagan
    • Ctn R BushI
    • Tra D Clinton
    • Rei R BushII
    • Prc D Obama
    • End R Trump

    Humanist Era (?):
    • Tfm D ?

  3. Top | #53
    Administrator lpetrich's Avatar
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    Misha Leybovich then looked at the various presidency types. Most of the types were good fits, though Precursors were a poor fit before the Collectivist Era.

    He then looked at ratings of presidents. They tended to decline over each era.

    Then President Trump.
    This post is not about Trump specifically. But he’s part of this overall story, and he’s the news story right now. As I shared my ideas with people, I often heard (sometimes in fear and sometimes in awe), “well maybe Trump is the start of his own Era.”

    I don’t believe that is the case. His place in the cycle of history has all the makings of the Ender of the Individualist Era. And if you were to make a movie about the end of that Era, you’d includes lots of scenes of the news saying the stuff the news is saying today.
    Then the upcoming era, what ML calls the Humanist Era.
    If patterns hold, the next president will be a transformational progressive.

    It could happen in 2020, or in 2024 if Trump wins re-election. That would be new for an Ender, but could happen.

    This suggests that we’re entering the Seventh Party System. That feels about right. Both parties have deep internal tensions, from realigning coalitions. The next Era/Party System will still probably feature the Dems and GOP as the major parties. But what each represents may change soonish.

    I chose Humanist to label the next Era, because I think the conversation may be about what to do with people as tech progresses at an exponential rate and the impact of climate change grows.

  4. Top | #54
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    Plutocracy not oligarchy. The wealthy here have influence but no direct power.

    A plutocracy (Greek: πλοῦτος, ploutos, 'wealth' + κράτος, kratos, 'power') or plutarchy is a society that is ruled or controlled by people of great wealth or income. The first known use of the term in English dates from 1631.[1] Unlike systems such as democracy, capitalism, socialism or anarchism, plutocracy is not rooted in an established political philosophy. Plutocracy is linked to the term dynastic wealth. The concept of plutocracy may be advocated by the wealthy classes of a society in an indirect or surreptitious fashion since the term itself is almost always used in a pejorative sense.
    Oligarchy (from Greek ὀλιγαρχία (oligarkhía); from ὀλίγος (olígos), meaning 'few', and ἄρχω (arkho), meaning 'to rule or to command')[1][2][3] is a form of power structure in which power rests with a small number of people. These people may be distinguished by nobility, wealth, education or corporate, religious, political, or military control. Such states are often controlled by families who typically pass their influence from one generation to the next, but inheritance is not a necessary condition for the application of this term.
    Throughout history, oligarchies have often been tyrannical, relying on public obedience or oppression to exist. Aristotle pioneered the use of the term as meaning rule by the rich,[4] for which another term commonly used today is plutocracy. In the early 20th century Robert Michels developed the theory that democracies, as all large organizations, have a tendency to turn into oligarchies. In his "Iron law of oligarchy" he suggests that the necessary division of labor in large organizations leads to the establishment of a ruling class mostly concerned with protecting their own power.
    This was already recognized by the Athenians in the fourth century BCE: after the restoration of democracy from oligarchical coups, they used the drawing of lots for selecting government officers to counteract that tendency toward oligarchy in government.[5][page needed] They drew lots from large groups of adult volunteers to pick civil servants performing judicial, executive, and administrative functions (archai, boulē, and hēliastai).[6] They even used lots for posts, such as judges and jurors in the political courts (nomothetai), which had the power to overrule the Assembly.[7]

  5. Top | #55
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    Return to progressive sanity? You must be kidding.

    Some people act as if we have same past where all was well, just, and fair. It has not existed yet.

    The Russian experiment failed. The Chinese experiment failed but China rose with western investment and technology.

    If anything China is an oligarchy maintained by brutal social control and surveillance of all aspects of citizens.

    It does look like the growling divide will lead to pitch forks and angry people in the street, rebellion.

    France has never worked, regular demonstrations. Scanavino countries have seemed to successfully integrate social welfare and security with free market capitalism. It can be done.

    Those at the top settle for less in the interest of stability.

    The wealthy here need to look at it as enlightened self interest. Instability unrest ultimately puts their lifestyles at risk.

  6. Top | #56
    Contributor PyramidHead's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by steve_bank View Post
    Return to progressive sanity? You must be kidding.

    Some people act as if we have same past where all was well, just, and fair. It has not existed yet.

    The Russian experiment failed. The Chinese experiment failed but China rose with western investment and technology.

    If anything China is an oligarchy maintained by brutal social control and surveillance of all aspects of citizens.
    Counterpoint: you have no idea what the fuck you're talking about and get all your information from the US state department's approved (or directly funded) sources.

  7. Top | #57
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    xx

  8. Top | #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by PyramidHead View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by steve_bank View Post
    Return to progressive sanity? You must be kidding.

    Some people act as if we have same past where all was well, just, and fair. It has not existed yet.

    The Russian experiment failed. The Chinese experiment failed but China rose with western investment and technology.

    If anything China is an oligarchy maintained by brutal social control and surveillance of all aspects of citizens.
    Counterpoint: you have no idea what the fuck you're talking about and get all your information from the US state department's approved (or directly funded) sources.
    When has there been a progressive paradise? The Saivite experiment was equality be decree, which failed miserably. Humans naturally fall into hierarchical power structures. I have seen it evolve often enough.

    Regardless of the system the primary question is about stability and decision making. How conflicts are resolved. It is the same issue socialist, capitalist, communist or whatever.

    Under stability is how well the bottom lives. That is what we are confronted with. Do we cap the top? We see checks and balances failing in congress right now.

    Stability id not a trivial question. Maoism led to the Cultural Revolution with chaos, destruction, and famine. From someone who has interfaced with Chinese busness and govt the thing they are most terrified of is another instabilkity, hence th draconian control.

    The govt caped income in general for the top athletes. It was only recently top world athletes were allowed to generally profit from earnings. They were not permitted to pay for their own trainers. Training was by the state, as such earnings went to the state. That is one way.


    The American progressives focus on the wealthy businesses and investors. What about pro athletes and Hollywood actors, do they deserve to get onscenly rich for what they do while teachers struggle?

    The question is far more complicated than simple sloganeering.

    We are going to create fairness by..? These debates on the forum never get to actual workable solutions including the entore system of compensation and work. The processive answer is tax the 'bad guys' out of existence, Then what? Hasn't worked yet.

    Orwell's Animal Farm parody of the Russian Revolution. The farm animals overthrow the farmer. The animals that took power were worse than the farmer. That is how I view progressives, including Sanders. FYI I am a centrist independent. I look at issues based on merits without ideology. How does it work.

    The left and the right are both ideological and equally fucked up.

    I have yet to hear anywhere well thought out reasoned solutions.

    Let me know if you see one. Solutions that are more than a paragraph.

  9. Top | #59
    Contributor Cheerful Charlie's Avatar
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    Things are going to change. Younger cohorts, Millennials, Generations, X, Y and Z are not happy with today's robber baron, gilded age economics that benefit the top 10% and especially the top 1% and big corporations. We now have the GOP and Trump vowing to eliminate ACA, slash Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and everything else that they can slash. This is not going over big with many people. The GOP hates raising minimum wage, and many parts of rural America are hollowing out, banks and hospitals closing down, family farms failing, towns become ghost towns. I see no way this can go on without a backlash in the future as young people start voting and supporting more of a Scandinavian model that this insane supply side monstrosity that gave us Kansas, Louisiana and failed Southern states kept afloat by Uncle Sugar's largess. This madness cannot go on forever.
    Cheerful Charlie

  10. Top | #60
    Elder Contributor DBT's Avatar
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    Surprising that it has gone on for so long.

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