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Thread: The effects of warming: Kilodeaths

  1. Top | #561
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    Quote Originally Posted by steve_bank View Post
    The ignorant conservatives do not know the defense between local weather and global climate republican from congress walked up to the podium wih a snowball in his hand during a big snow storm and said how can there be global warming.

    The main indicator is ocean water temperatures which are rising globally with consequences. It may seem trivial to tye ignorant, coral are dyeing off from rising temperature. Coral provides habitat for marine life at the bottom of the food chain. Up the food chain are salmon, haddock, and the rest of the commercial fishing we eat.

    Cold waters sinking at the poles drives major ocean currents, like the one passing by Europe. If the current stalls it will affect European climate and fishing. The current churns nutrients in the water.
    The local weather in Greenland could have been above average without a big melt.

  2. Top | #562
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    Quote Originally Posted by angelo View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by angelo View Post

    The mainstream and dare I say it, Leftist media are always ready for news selling fake alarmism like "Record temperatures broken by Climate Change." But ponder this for a second..................Last time it was this hot was in 1938. Did we have GW/CC/CD in 1938? If so, why wasn't anything done about it then?
    It wasn't this hot in 1938. Perhaps in one city it was, but I'm talking about the whole world, not just a point on it.
    Arctic was warmer in 1940
    "Temperatures in the Arctic and in Greenland were warmer by up to 3 Fahrenheit degrees in the late 1930s and early 1940s than they are at present" (Christopher Monckton)

    Can you prove otherwise?
    He's not even a scientist!

    https://skepticalscience.com/Monckton_Myths_arg.htm

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    Mazzie Daius fromderinside's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by angelo View Post

    The mainstream and dare I say it, Leftist media are always ready for news selling fake alarmism like "Record temperatures broken by Climate Change." But ponder this for a second..................Last time it was this hot was in 1938. Did we have GW/CC/CD in 1938? If so, why wasn't anything done about it then?


    Arctic was warmer in 1940
    "Temperatures in the Arctic and in Greenland were warmer by up to 3 Fahrenheit degrees in the late 1930s and early 1940s than they are at present" (Christopher Monckton)

    Can you prove otherwise?
    Eyup.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel View Post
    From which we get:

    As real scientists tend to be very skeptical beasts, it is important that we assess his claim for quality to ensure that it is not based solely on a cherry-pick. In order to do so I ran clear climate code’s Gistemp reimplementation using Python and also their scripts for adding in more data from Environment Canada that was otherwise not included in the Gistemp analysis. This implementation is likely the best representation of the trends in the Arctic as it assumes that stations in the high Arctic follow similar trends to stations in the low Arctic whereas other methods (HadCrut) exclude these regions thereby assuming they have similar trends to the global trend. The accuracy of the reconstruction can be validated through comparison with the various reanalysis datasets which are reassessments of temperature changes combining meteorological stations, satellite measurements, weather balloon data and meteorological models. I have included the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for comparison.
    So what do the results show?


    Figure 1: Temperature Anomalies (1951-1981 Baseline) for the Arctic region (64-90°N) over the past 130 years according to ccc-gistemp analysis and NCEP reanalysis.

  4. Top | #564
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    Quote Originally Posted by fromderinside View Post

    Eyup.



    From which we get:

    As real scientists tend to be very skeptical beasts, it is important that we assess his claim for quality to ensure that it is not based solely on a cherry-pick. In order to do so I ran clear climate code’s Gistemp reimplementation using Python and also their scripts for adding in more data from Environment Canada that was otherwise not included in the Gistemp analysis. This implementation is likely the best representation of the trends in the Arctic as it assumes that stations in the high Arctic follow similar trends to stations in the low Arctic whereas other methods (HadCrut) exclude these regions thereby assuming they have similar trends to the global trend. The accuracy of the reconstruction can be validated through comparison with the various reanalysis datasets which are reassessments of temperature changes combining meteorological stations, satellite measurements, weather balloon data and meteorological models. I have included the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for comparison.
    So what do the results show?


    Figure 1: Temperature Anomalies (1951-1981 Baseline) for the Arctic region (64-90°N) over the past 130 years according to ccc-gistemp analysis and NCEP reanalysis.
    That chart shows a good example of P Hacking. That's where you take any data set that goes up or down in a jagged line (like weather, economy...) and snip out a portion that briefly goes in the direction that supports your claim.

    There may have been a period where the temperature dropped, but the overall trend is upward.

  5. Top | #565
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnG View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by fromderinside View Post

    Eyup.



    From which we get:

    As real scientists tend to be very skeptical beasts, it is important that we assess his claim for quality to ensure that it is not based solely on a cherry-pick. In order to do so I ran clear climate code’s Gistemp reimplementation using Python and also their scripts for adding in more data from Environment Canada that was otherwise not included in the Gistemp analysis. This implementation is likely the best representation of the trends in the Arctic as it assumes that stations in the high Arctic follow similar trends to stations in the low Arctic whereas other methods (HadCrut) exclude these regions thereby assuming they have similar trends to the global trend. The accuracy of the reconstruction can be validated through comparison with the various reanalysis datasets which are reassessments of temperature changes combining meteorological stations, satellite measurements, weather balloon data and meteorological models. I have included the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for comparison.
    So what do the results show?


    Figure 1: Temperature Anomalies (1951-1981 Baseline) for the Arctic region (64-90°N) over the past 130 years according to ccc-gistemp analysis and NCEP reanalysis.
    That chart shows a good example of P Hacking. That's where you take any data set that goes up or down in a jagged line (like weather, economy...) and snip out a portion that briefly goes in the direction that supports your claim.

    There may have been a period where the temperature dropped, but the overall trend is upward.
    How is this p-hacking? The graph shows the whole time frame where we have been burning fossil fuels to a substantial degree.

  6. Top | #566
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by JohnG View Post

    That chart shows a good example of P Hacking. That's where you take any data set that goes up or down in a jagged line (like weather, economy...) and snip out a portion that briefly goes in the direction that supports your claim.

    There may have been a period where the temperature dropped, but the overall trend is upward.
    How is this p-hacking? The graph shows the whole time frame where we have been burning fossil fuels to a substantial degree.
    For starters, it uses a starting point as reference just after the end of the 'little ice age", just as the Earth was emerging from the coldest period in the entire Holocene.

  7. Top | #567
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    Quote Originally Posted by skepticalbip View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by JohnG View Post

    That chart shows a good example of P Hacking. That's where you take any data set that goes up or down in a jagged line (like weather, economy...) and snip out a portion that briefly goes in the direction that supports your claim.

    There may have been a period where the temperature dropped, but the overall trend is upward.
    How is this p-hacking? The graph shows the whole time frame where we have been burning fossil fuels to a substantial degree.
    For starters, it uses a starting point as reference just after the end of the 'little ice age", just as the Earth was emerging from the coldest period in the entire Holocene.
    It's 20 years after the end of the little ice age. I also suspect that's as far back as the data goes.

  8. Top | #568
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by skepticalbip View Post

    For starters, it uses a starting point as reference just after the end of the 'little ice age", just as the Earth was emerging from the coldest period in the entire Holocene.
    It's 20 years after the end of the little ice age. I also suspect that's as far back as the data goes.
    Actually there is data back a few billion years (though far from detailed), a bit more reliable data over the last several million years (tracing the glaciation and inter-glacial periods of the current ice age), better data back to the beginning of the Holocene.

  9. Top | #569
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    Polar ice cores show climate lo ver time including atmospheric gases.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_core

    An ice core is a core sample that is typically removed from an ice sheet or a high mountain glacier. Since the ice forms from the incremental buildup of annual layers of snow, lower layers are older than upper, and an ice core contains ice formed over a range of years. Cores are drilled with hand augers (for shallow holes) or powered drills; they can reach depths of over two miles (3.2 km), and contain ice up to 800,000 years old.

    The physical properties of the ice and of material trapped in it can be used to reconstruct the climate over the age range of the core. The proportions of different oxygen and hydrogen isotopes provide information about ancient temperatures, and the air trapped in tiny bubbles can be analysed to determine the level of atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide. Since heat flow in a large ice sheet is very slow, the borehole temperature is another indicator of temperature in the past. These data can be combined to find the climate model that best fits all the available data.

    Impurities in ice cores may depend on location. Coastal areas are more likely to include material of marine origin, such as sea salt ions. Greenland ice cores contain layers of wind-blown dust that correlate with cold, dry periods in the past, when cold deserts were scoured by wind. Radioactive elements, either of natural origin or created by nuclear testing, can be used to date the layers of ice. Some volcanic events that were sufficiently powerful to send material around the globe have left a signature in many different cores that can be used to synchronise their time scales.

    Ice cores have been studied since the early 20th century, and several cores were drilled as a result of the International Geophysical Year (1957–1958). Depths of over 400 m were reached, a record which was extended in the 1960s to 2164 m at Byrd Station in Antarctica. Soviet ice drilling projects in Antarctica include decades of work at Vostok Station, with the deepest core reaching 3769 m. Numerous other deep cores in the Antarctic have been completed over the years, including the West Antarctic Ice Sheet project, and cores managed by the British Antarctic Survey and the International Trans-Antarctic Scientific Expedition. In Greenland, a sequence of collaborative projects began in the 1970s with the Greenland Ice Sheet Project; there have been multiple follow-up projects, with the most recent, the East Greenland Ice-Core Project, expected to complete a deep core in east Greenland in 2020.
    Glacial periods appear periodic. A long standing puzzle was how human ancestors crossed the African desert. Relatively recent archaeological evidence shows the region is periodically wet. Cave drawings depict water, plants, and animals.

    None of the know periodic climate variations account for the rise in temperature from the start of the Industrial Revolution.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age

  10. Top | #570
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    I knew there were sufficient hammers available here to nail down this Christopher Monckton fraud. Good work. Looks real good. Thanks.

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