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Thread: The effects of warming: Kilodeaths

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    Administrator lpetrich's Avatar
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    Earth's 5 warmest years on record have occurred since 2014 - Axios
    The ratio of warm and cold temperature records is increasingly skewed - Axios
    This is how much the world has warmed since 1880 - Axios

    Berkeley Earth - 2018 Temperatures - 1850 to 2018
    Temperature rise since 1850: 1.2 C

    Global-averaged temperature roughly constant until it started rising ~ 1910.
    Why the Little Ice Age Doesn't Matter - The Atlantic
    No evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the preindustrial Common Era | Nature
    The variation is mostly regional.

    Report: Global temps are the highest they've been in 4,000 years - the first half of the Holocene was relatively warm, though likely not as warm as today.
    A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years | Science
    The pattern of temperatures shows a rise as the world emerged from the last deglaciation, warm conditions until the middle of the Holocene, and a cooling trend over the next 5000 years that culminated around 200 years ago in the Little Ice Age. Temperatures have risen steadily since then, leaving us now with a global temperature higher than those during 90% of the entire Holocene.
    NASA GISS: Science Briefs: Earth's Climate History: Implications for Tomorrow - the Holocene has been about as warm as it ever has been over the last 3 million years -- that includes the entire Pleistocene (2.5 m.y.), and it is a little bit into the Pliocene.

    Also shows graphs of the steady loss of Greenland and Antarctic ice, as measured by the GRACE pair of gravity satellites. They transmit signals to each other, and the back-and-forth time for them gives their separation.

    Ice Sheets | Vital Signs – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet - Greenland and Antarctica for 2002 - 2017 - from their gravity, they are losing ice. They gain some in local winter, but they lose more in local summer.

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    Administrator lpetrich's Avatar
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    Dansgaard–Oeschger event
    In the Northern Hemisphere, they take the form of rapid warming episodes, typically in a matter of decades, each followed by gradual cooling over a longer period. For example, about 11,500 years ago, averaged annual temperatures on the Greenland ice sheet warmed by around 8 °C over 40 years, in three steps of five years (see,[3] Stewart, chapter 13), where a 5 °C change over 30–40 years is more common.

    Heinrich events only occur in the cold spells immediately preceding D-O warmings, leading some to suggest that D-O cycles may cause the events, or at least constrain their timing.[4]

    The course of a D-O event sees a rapid warming of temperature, followed by a cool period lasting a few hundred years.[5] This cold period sees an expansion of the polar front, with ice floating further south across the North Atlantic Ocean.[5]
    Geologic temperature record - a lot warmer than the present over much of the Phanerozoic. Likely from reduced or absent ice sheets: no very cold spots.

  3. Top | #13
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    It sure looks like we are heading to a bible scale apocalyptic correction by nature.

    Someone born today in North America or Europe may face food and water shortages in their lifetime.

    A UW study predicts the Columbia River will draw down due to reduced snowpack and spring melts. Eastern Washington and Oregon agriculture are mostly dry land agriculture supported by the Columbia.

    The warming of Lake Washington is interfering with salmon runs. There is an algae bloom based on temperature. Small fish eat the algae and salmon eat the small fish. Salmon are arriving off the peak bloom.

    A recent repot said a salmon run has been devastated in a river by high temperature. The higher temp means less dissolved oxygen. They suffocated.

    Back in the 60s 70s what were then called survivalists were considered fringe eluents. Live off the grid and grow your own food. Looks like they may have been on to something even back then.

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    Quote Originally Posted by steve_bank View Post
    Back in the 60s 70s what were then called survivalists were considered fringe eluents. Live off the grid and grow your own food. Looks like they may have been on to something even back then.
    While you can live off the grid you can't live apart from it--you need the inputs from modern technology to do that, if society collapses you aren't going to be able to get spare parts etc, you won't be growing your own food for long. Not to mention being able to defend it from the hungry hordes that will show up. The only scenario in which the survivalist approach makes any sense at all is some sort of biological catastrophe.

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    Stock a lot of spare parts? Of course the survivalist position is flawed.

    However pre industrial 19th century USA did quite well with no advanced technology. In the event of a total collapse technology and knowledge would survive.

    It is not that hard to make good transistors. Shokley was doing it in a barn on a farm. With a reduction in population renewable energy works well. Solar panels, basic power supplies, and wind turbines are not difficult to make.

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    Quote Originally Posted by steve_bank View Post
    Stock a lot of spare parts? Of course the survivalist position is flawed.

    However pre industrial 19th century USA did quite well with no advanced technology. In the event of a total collapse technology and knowledge would survive.

    It is not that hard to make good transistors. Shokley was doing it in a barn on a farm. With a reduction in population renewable energy works well. Solar panels, basic power supplies, and wind turbines are not difficult to make.
    I think you may be understating a bit what is needed for technology. Sure a wind mill is fairly easy if you want mechanical power to pump water or to run a grist mill. An electrical generator is a bit more difficult unless you have some simple technique for making insulated wire from raw copper ore and tree sap. Making solar panels would require a bit more than the average survivalist has available. But then I haven't ever heard anyone call Shokley's lab at Bell Laboratories in Murray Hill, New Jersey a barn on a farm.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel View Post
    ... snip ...

    While you can live off the grid you can't live apart from it--you need the inputs from modern technology to do that,

    ... snip ...
    It depends on how you want to live. I think the Amish would be able to do quite well in northern Idaho... and then the tribes in the Amazon rain forest are doing the survivalist thingy pretty well too.

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    Quote Originally Posted by steve_bank View Post
    However pre industrial 19th century USA did quite well with no advanced technology.
    Did quite well IN WHAT WAY???
    In the event of a total collapse technology and knowledge would survive.
    Horseshit.
    It is not that hard to make good transistors. Shokley was doing it in a barn on a farm. With a reduction in population renewable energy works well. Solar panels, basic power supplies, and wind turbines are not difficult to make.
    Have you ever played any Civilization sort of game? Those games have technology trees that one must navigate as one plays. These are inspired by real-life technologies, and most of them have depended on previous ones. steve_bank, the technological regression that you describe is one that goes several steps backward. So going forward again will be difficult - one has to master several steps. Knowing what to do will help, but one will have to have plenty of paper books.

    Why not look at the manufacturing processes necessary for solar panels or integrated circuits? Lots of precision high-tech equipment. Integrated circuits? Absolutely necessary for making computers widely usable. There's a reason that we don't use discrete transistors in our computers anymore.

    So it will be important to keep a high level of technology so we don't have to rebuild it.

  9. Top | #19
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    Successful in the sense steam powered trains delivered live beef and fresh produce around the country. Nutrition took a quantum leap. It manifested in the growth in height of doors. The opposite of NK where growth is stunted from malnutrition of young. Mass production of essential items like tools and nails, plows.

    Solar electricity can power a wide range of machine tools. What survivalists would lack is raw materials like iron and aluminum and copper. With a reduced population that supplies needs plus some general amenities instead of gargantuan production of things we do not need humans could live like kings, if they get their collective shit together.

    I have not played video games since PONG and Asteroids. I base my thinking on history, current events, and knowledge of technology.

    One man's horseshit is another man's perfume.

    Using video games to predict the future, I suppose it is a sign of the times. No one can say for sure, but the general scenarios are predictable. As food, water, and minerals become scarce war. Compounded by nuclear weapons. With the reduction in crop yields from warming the situation at the border only gets worse.

    The govt has already predicted we will cease to be a net food exporter. The Midwest aquifer is drawing down. Ca wells are becoming contaminated with salt water. The Colorado River is nearly entirely consumed. It is predicted the LA area will be unable to supply drinking water in coming decades. A long list of indicators. Lower snowpacks means less water in summer.

    Humans are tribal. China for decades has try to control international waters in the South China Sea for minerals, oil, and fish. Skirmishes with the Philippines. Chinese fishing fleets over time fished out territorial waters and expnded globaly.

    Tribalism is alreasy happening. Trump along with Putin.

    It does mot take a video game to see the possible futures.

    For Germany and Japan WWII was about oil and food.

    Civilization breaks down quickly. Looting during blackouts. ANTIFA vs Neo Nazis.

    We have become an affluent, corrupt, decadent society and do not have the wisdom to preserves what we have. Congress is paralyzed. Global warming is the tipping point.

    I am just hoping things hold up as long as my heart does,.

    Back in the 70s I had a philosophy prof who attended a govt seminar. The gist of it was at some point in future the have nots will try to overwhelm the haves. That is our southern border. And that was the recent wave of people that swept across Europe.

    The historical signs are all there. It does not take an academic to see it.

    Knowledge and technology will likely survive. Collapse followed by authorial systems will need to preserve technology. Like China today. They will meet food riots with guns to maintain order and continuity. Life will go on without the stability of the postwar alliances.

    So the lesson is put on your headphones, take your drug of choice, and watch your video games...there is nothing you can do. Historical forces are in motion.

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    It's not a question of if there is going to be a crisis of world shaking proportions, just when.

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