View Poll Results: Who will win the 2020 Democratic nomination?

Voters
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  • Joe Biden

    9 45.00%
  • Bernie Sanders

    3 15.00%
  • Elizabeth Warren

    4 20.00%
  • Pete Buttigieg

    0 0%
  • Andrew Yang

    3 15.00%
  • Michael Bloomberg

    0 0%
  • Amy Klobuchar

    0 0%
  • Somebody else (specify)

    1 5.00%
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Thread: Who will win the Democratic nomination for president?

  1. Top | #1
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    Who will win the Democratic nomination for president?

    So the last primary debate of the year is in the rear-view mirror, and Iowa is voting in 6 short weeks. The primary field has winnowed some, but not so much that it is obvious who is most likely to win nomination. So, perfect time to speculate and put down your prediction.

    The major candidates are, with age at inauguration date 2021:

    VP Joe Biden (DE) - 78

    Forget Donny Two Scoops, I get two whole cones!

    Pros: has experience, is well liked (mostly due to association with Obama), would likely be strong in Midwestern states Hillary lost, held his own against Corn Pop
    Cons: older than dirt, gaffe prone, his two previous presidential runs went nowhere

    Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT) - 79

    I got a lot of problems with you people and now you're gonna hear about it!

    Pros: has a very dedicated following, Democratic Party has moved left in the recent years
    Cons: oldest person running, has suffered a recent heart attack, self-described socialist

    Sen. Elizabeth Warren (MA) - 71

    I thought there'd be wine. And a cave.

    Pros: she has a plan for that, like Bernie rides the leftward drift of the Democratic Party, is female, younger than most other frontrunners
    Cons: mangled her M4A plan, still very old, claimed to be Indian, probably too left (not just on economics but especially on identity politics) for the general election

    Mayor Pete Buttigieg (IN) - 39

    I could murder a pork chop just about now. And by the way Liz, that cave wine was delicious!

    Pros: young, smart, military experience, unlike all the legislators dominating the field he actually has executive office experience
    Cons: possibly too young, only a mayor of a medium sized city, being gay could hurt him with blacks in the primaries and evangelicals in the general

    Andrew Yang (NY) - 46

    Getting fed whipped cream straight from can by a presidential candidate is not normal. But on MATH it is.

    Pros: outsider, has an unique issue (automation/AI fundamentally changing the economy necessitating something like UBI), sweet-spot age-wise
    Cons: no elected office, no obvious path to nomination, could miss next debate

    Mayor Michael Bloomberg (NY) - 78

    Must protect people from the big gulp!

    Pros: EE degree, a refreshing change from JD most others have, can self-fund campaign, ran city that is bigger than all but 11 states
    Cons: nanny stater (banned large servings of sugary drinks, wants to keep weed illegal), between Biden and Bernie on age, refusal to seek donation keeps him from the debate stage, path to nomination involves hope of Biden collapse

    Sen. Amy Klobuchar (MN) - 60

    This campaign is giving me a headache.

    Pros: woman, not too old, Mid-western, moderate
    Cons: failed to catch fire so far, has reputation of mistreating staffers, wanted Obama to go after adult porn, salad-gate
    Last edited by Derec; 12-23-2019 at 04:33 AM.

  2. Top | #2
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    The primaries are still very open. How early states go could make a huge difference. Especially Iowa. If it goes for Sanders, New Hampshire will probably too and we may have a repeat of 2016 - a two-way fight between Sanders and the establishment candidate, probably Biden.

    On the other hand, if Buttigieg wins Iowa, Sanders New Hampshire, and Biden South Carolina the nomination would be wide open going into Super Tuesday (3/3) and depending on how those states vote, as wide open afterwards. That would vindicate Bloomberg's strategy and he could pick up state wins and certainly would pick up delegates.

    Should be an interesting Spring.

  3. Top | #3
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    I voted Biden but only because he's more likely than any other candidate to win. He's not likely to win, though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angra Mainyu View Post
    I voted Biden but only because he's more likely than any other candidate to win. He's not likely to win, though.
    Care to elaborate on how someone is more likely to win than anyone else yet at the same time is not likely to win?

  5. Top | #5
    Elder Contributor barbos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patooka View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Angra Mainyu View Post
    I voted Biden but only because he's more likely than any other candidate to win. He's not likely to win, though.
    Care to elaborate on how someone is more likely to win than anyone else yet at the same time is not likely to win?
    If Biden has 30% chance to win but the rest of people are less than 30% individually. The rest combined is 70% hence Biden is less likely to win than somebody else.

  6. Top | #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by barbos View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Patooka View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Angra Mainyu View Post
    I voted Biden but only because he's more likely than any other candidate to win. He's not likely to win, though.
    Care to elaborate on how someone is more likely to win than anyone else yet at the same time is not likely to win?
    If Biden has 30% chance to win but the rest of people are less than 30% individually. The rest combined is 70% hence Biden is less likely to win than somebody else.
    I get the math, but it's "first one past the post" politics. It can also be flipped around; all candidates are likely to lose, but Biden has the least chance to lose. Therefore, the most likely to win. Essentially if someone asked, "Who is most likely to win", an answer like, "Biden, but he's not likely to win" is pretty confusing without qualification.

    Personally, I think it is wayyyy too early to predict. One could easily have a preference, but there is six months left before the convention. That's eighteen to nineteen Scaramuccis in Trump time, a lot can happen is such a period.

  7. Top | #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patooka View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Angra Mainyu View Post
    I voted Biden but only because he's more likely than any other candidate to win. He's not likely to win, though.
    Care to elaborate on how someone is more likely to win than anyone else yet at the same time is not likely to win?
    I reckon for any given candidate, it is probable that that candidate will lose. But for Biden, probability of a win is higher than it is for Warren, or for Buttigieg, or for Sanders, etc., or for any other given candidate (barbos already explained the idea).

  8. Top | #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Angra Mainyu View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Patooka View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Angra Mainyu View Post
    I voted Biden but only because he's more likely than any other candidate to win. He's not likely to win, though.
    Care to elaborate on how someone is more likely to win than anyone else yet at the same time is not likely to win?
    I reckon for any given candidate, it is probable that that candidate will lose. But for Biden, probability of a win is higher than it is for Warren, or for Buttigieg, or for Sanders, etc., or for any other given candidate (barbos already explained the idea).
    That's a pretty convoluted way of saying "I'm not sure".

  9. Top | #9
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    Who was the other person here who voted Yang? I thought I was his only supporter here.

  10. Top | #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jolly_Penguin View Post
    Who was the other person here who voted Yang? I thought I was his only supporter here.
    Click the "View Poll Results", it's not anonymous.

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