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Thread: "Coronavirus and the US" or "We are all going to die!!!!"

  1. Top | #231
    Mazzie Daius fromderinside's Avatar
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    So initial numbers suggest about 1500 die for every 50,000 infections or about 0.3% . WHO estimates could mean perhaps 4,500,000,000 infections up to about 13.5 million could die.

    Nope. Just your average flu season. I suspect the numbers might be one tenth of that because there are many multiples more infections than what's been reported

    For instance, if 250 get infected on a ship of 3300 which provides a closed loop and concentrated sample suggests infections are much less likely than the numbers WHO generates.

  2. Top | #232
    Elder Contributor barbos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fromderinside View Post
    So initial numbers suggest about 1500 die for every 50,000 infections or about 0.3% . WHO estimates could mean perhaps 4,500,000,000 infections up to about 13.5 million could die.
    That would be 3% and 135 million.

  3. Top | #233
    Mazzie Daius fromderinside's Avatar
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    Even better. My excuse is I'm losing it and I resist confirming with excel. Obviously well overblown as cruise ship example where 250 infected and no deaths suggests an infection rate of less than 10%. My guess is the actual infected - infected are mostly people in China - is more like 500,0000 on the way to about two to 5 million when all is said and done. bringing the I-D ratio back down to 0.3 or less.
    Last edited by fromderinside; 02-14-2020 at 05:27 PM.

  4. Top | #234
    Elder Contributor barbos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fromderinside View Post
    Even better. Obviously well overblown as cruise ship example suggests. My guess is the actual infected - infected are mostly people in China - is more like 500,0000 on the way to about two to 5 million when all is said and done. bringing the I-D ratio back down to 0.3 or less.
    Death rate is not known very well yet.

  5. Top | #235
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    Time to calm down and analyze your chances of exposure, b/o lifestyle, proximity to vectors, etc.
    In my case:
    1- Reside in American Midwest
    2- Vegetarian and do not eat seafood
    3- Had a Chinese Checker game set, but got rid of it in about 2007
    4- No longer patronize prostitutes from the Pacific Rim. Rephrasing: got a rim.. Rephrasing again: I never patronized prostitutes from the Pacific Rim. Or any other Rim that I can think of.
    5- Have not been overseas since 1987
    On the debit side:
    1- I go to the lunch buffet at the Hong Kong Café every couple o' weeks
    2- Do not believe the Christian narrative, therefore would not be included in the general upsweep if there were to be a Rapture event (this might actually belong on the positive list, right? The Christers will get the Corona and be tickled to get it?) (As of last night, local meterologists have not made any Rapture forecasts.)
    My analysis: 80 to 85% safe.

  6. Top | #236
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    You go to the Hong Kong cafe?

    You're going to die. Hide underneath your bed immediately.

  7. Top | #237
    Industrial Grade Linguist Copernicus's Avatar
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    I am in Singapore today. Most people are not wearing masks, but the city seems largely deserted. We boarded a cruise ship with a maximum capacity of 800 passengers. Most people cancelled, so there are less than 200 passengers. When we got to the cruise terminal, my wife and I were the only people in the embarkation hall, except for the army of staff there to manage and guide us to the registration counter.

    We are looking forward to a very relaxing vacation. Plenty of food, drink, and entertainment. Free internet included. We head for Vietnam tomorrow, but they may refuse us entry. We usually catch a cold during a cruise, but everything is so sanitary that this will likely be the most germ-free ship we've been on.

  8. Top | #238
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I am in Singapore today. Most people are not wearing masks, but the city seems largely deserted. We boarded a cruise ship with a maximum capacity of 800 passengers. Most people cancelled, so there are less than 200 passengers. When we got to the cruise terminal, my wife and I were the only people in the embarkation hall, except for the army of staff there to manage and guide us to the registration counter.

    We are looking forward to a very relaxing vacation. Plenty of food, drink, and entertainment. Free internet included. We head for Vietnam tomorrow, but they may refuse us entry. We usually catch a cold during a cruise, but everything is so sanitary that this will likely be the most germ-free ship we've been on.
    Fotos??

  9. Top | #239
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    I don't know why Americans are freaking out over this new virus, when as many as 19,000 Americans have already died of the flu this year.

    https://weather.com/health/cold-flu/...lnesses-deaths

    The current flu season started at the beginning of October and lasts until May. As of Feb. 9, between 15.4 million and 17.8 million people nationwide have caught the flu, the Centers for Disease and Control reported.

    Two million of those cases came in the week that ended Feb. 9. The CDC warned that was the highest flu activity it has seen this season, USA Today reported.

    There have been 11,600 to 19,100 deaths so far.

    A total of 34 influenza-associated pediatric deaths have been reported to CDC for this season. For the 2017-2018 season, 185 pediatric flu deaths were reported.

    Between 184,000 and 221,000 people have been hospitalized with the flu so far this season.

    The CDC said the flu typically kills 12,000 to 56,000 people in the U.S. in a year.

    “The number of deaths we’re seeing is a little bit surprising,” CDC epidemiologist Brendan Flannery told the Wall Street Journal. “It’s a reminder that flu can be severe.”
    The vaccine this year is about 47% effective, but a lot of the pediatric and deaths related to younger people, are due to a strain that most adults have immunity from. People born after 1992 were never exposed to that particular strain of the virus.

    I've read quite a few articles about this new virus and most people have very mild symptoms. So far the death rate is a lot less than SARS. The biggest problem with this virus seems to be that's it's very contagious, especially when many people don't even realize they are infected with it, or their symptoms are so mild, that they don't consider they. may be infecting other people. Plus, I doubt that it helped that the Chinese government tried to hide this illness until it was around for about a month. We are obviously not a very rational species, are we?

  10. Top | #240
    Contributor skepticalbip's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by southernhybrid View Post
    I don't know why Americans are freaking out over this new virus,
    Americans love to freak out.

    WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!


    We are obviously not a very rational species, are we?
    AHA... so you knew the answer to your question all along.

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