Page 138 of 140 FirstFirst ... 3888128136137138139140 LastLast
Results 1,371 to 1,380 of 1396

Thread: "Coronavirus and the US" or "We are all going to die!!!!"

  1. Top | #1371
    Veteran Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Riverside City
    Posts
    4,423
    Archived
    6,289
    Total Posts
    10,712
    Rep Power
    43
    Quote Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel View Post

    And note that that still doesn't tell you if it's sterilizing immunity or not. Due to the danger of Covid you can't conduct tests in which you deliberately expose someone, thus all you can do is observe what happens--and without basically 100% effective contact tracing you have no way to figure out if those who are vaccinated can still spread it. The places that can actually accomplish this have so few Covid cases that they don't make reasonable areas to conduct a Phase III trial in.

    So, why in the heck weren't those in the study routinely tested, I don't know either weekly for the virus or monthly for antibodies? Why don't we have an answer for the above? Was it merely because they didn't have a large enough testing pool?
    Tests are in short supply, you want to use up a million tests for very little information? Remember, the tests can't tell the difference between live virus and dead virus--if the virus comes along and your body promptly kills it you still might test positive.

    And the antibody tests are problematic--there's a cold virus that's similar enough to Covid to cause false positives with the antibody test.
    I'm pretty sure there is no cold virus that's at all similar to Covid - though there are several that are pretty similar to SARS-CoV-2.

  2. Top | #1372
    Super Moderator
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Nevada
    Posts
    31,145
    Archived
    96,752
    Total Posts
    127,897
    Rep Power
    100
    Quote Originally Posted by Jokodo View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel View Post

    And note that that still doesn't tell you if it's sterilizing immunity or not. Due to the danger of Covid you can't conduct tests in which you deliberately expose someone, thus all you can do is observe what happens--and without basically 100% effective contact tracing you have no way to figure out if those who are vaccinated can still spread it. The places that can actually accomplish this have so few Covid cases that they don't make reasonable areas to conduct a Phase III trial in.

    So, why in the heck weren't those in the study routinely tested, I don't know either weekly for the virus or monthly for antibodies? Why don't we have an answer for the above? Was it merely because they didn't have a large enough testing pool?
    Tests are in short supply, you want to use up a million tests for very little information? Remember, the tests can't tell the difference between live virus and dead virus--if the virus comes along and your body promptly kills it you still might test positive.

    And the antibody tests are problematic--there's a cold virus that's similar enough to Covid to cause false positives with the antibody test.
    I'm pretty sure there is no cold virus that's at all similar to Covid - though there are several that are pretty similar to SARS-CoV-2.
    Close enough to cause a false positive doesn't mean the disease is similar.

  3. Top | #1373
    Veteran Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Riverside City
    Posts
    4,423
    Archived
    6,289
    Total Posts
    10,712
    Rep Power
    43
    Quote Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Jokodo View Post

    I'm pretty sure there is no cold virus that's at all similar to Covid - though there are several that are pretty similar to SARS-CoV-2.
    Close enough to cause a false positive doesn't mean the disease is similar.
    You're missing my point (or my not pick, if you will). You were talking about the virus, Covid is the disease, so... category error.

  4. Top | #1374
    Super Moderator
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Nevada
    Posts
    31,145
    Archived
    96,752
    Total Posts
    127,897
    Rep Power
    100
    Quote Originally Posted by Jokodo View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Jokodo View Post

    I'm pretty sure there is no cold virus that's at all similar to Covid - though there are several that are pretty similar to SARS-CoV-2.
    Close enough to cause a false positive doesn't mean the disease is similar.
    You're missing my point (or my not pick, if you will). You were talking about the virus, Covid is the disease, so... category error.
    I'm not a virologist. We commonly refer to the virus with the name of the disease.

  5. Top | #1375
    Contributor blastula's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    The greatesst state
    Posts
    6,825
    Archived
    6,070
    Total Posts
    12,895
    Rep Power
    65
    Paul Offit was on TWiV and talked about the covid vaccines. He's an infectious disease doc who's also a member of the FDA Advisory Committee that reviews vaccines. You might also know him because he's been involved with CSI (the skeptic group) and speaks publicly about vaccine safety.

    TWiV 720: With vaccines, Offit is on it

    It's a 2 hour episode, but he's only in the first half and only talks about covid from about 18 min to 59 min (in the audio version). He gives good information, I'll go over some of it.

    For those concerned about vaccine safety or that they were rushed, the trial sizes of about 30k-40k is typical for vaccine trials and the safety follow-up time was also typical for prior vaccines. The reason vaccines typically take longer for FDA licensure is for determining efficacy not safety. The covid vaccines were approved under emergency use authorization because of the pandemic, they haven't been licensed by the FDA. But any serious side effects are always picked up within 6 weeks of a dose, and they had 2 months of follow-up after the second dose of the mrna ones. The uncertainty here is not over safety but on how long it’s effective -- for efficacy of a vaccine months or years out, need to study it for that long. But he’s confident these vaccines will be effective for much longer than the time they were tested.

    He's encouraged seeing cases decreasing now in the middle of February since it’s a winter respiratory virus. Believes it’s because of the numbers that have immunity, estimates that about 35% of US has protection from disease, combining actual recovered cases and the number of vaccinated.

    What could change this is if a variant comes out that is truly resistant to the vaccine and natural immunity, meaning could infect and cause severe disease. None of the variants (UK, RSA, Brazil) out now have been found to have such resistance to the vaccines.

    On sterilizing immunity, he says that's rare for any vaccine, can think of only one like that, but does believe that those vaccinated for covid should shed less and so transmit less. If define herd immunity as completely eliminating virus, the vaccines won’t achieve it, but if define it as getting to point of living with a certain degree of hospitalizations and death, then yes.

    He's also impressed that the flu this year is basically gone, typically about 150-200 children die each year, but this year so far one has died from it. Says social distancing works, maybe should keep doing it in some respects after all this.

  6. Top | #1376
    Contributor repoman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2001
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Posts
    7,714
    Archived
    2,280
    Total Posts
    9,994
    Rep Power
    80
    These kids will have piss poor all around immunity going forward,

  7. Top | #1377
    Contributor repoman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2001
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Posts
    7,714
    Archived
    2,280
    Total Posts
    9,994
    Rep Power
    80
    Attached Images Attached Images

  8. Top | #1378
    Contributor
    Join Date
    Aug 2001
    Location
    Georgia, US
    Posts
    5,113
    Archived
    3,862
    Total Posts
    8,975
    Rep Power
    82

    There's a new scary mutation!

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/05/h...t-all-surfaces


    Scientists in Oregon have spotted a homegrown version of a fast-spreading variant of the coronavirus that first surfaced in Britain — but now combined with a mutation that may make the variant less susceptible to vaccines.

    The researchers have so far found just a single case of this formidable combination, but genetic analysis suggested that the variant had been acquired in the community and did not arise in the patient.

    “We didn’t import this from elsewhere in the world — it occurred spontaneously,” said Brian O’Roak, a geneticist at Oregon Health and Science University who led the work. He and his colleagues participate in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s effort to track variants, and they have deposited their results in databases shared by scientists.

    The new version that surfaced in Portland has the same backbone, but also a mutation — E484K, or “Eek” — seen in variants of the virus circulating in South Africa, Brazil and New York City.

    Lab studies and clinical trials in South Africa indicate that the Eek mutation renders the current vaccines less effective by blunting the body’s immune response. (The vaccines still work, but the findings are worrying enough that Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna have begun testing new versions of their vaccines designed to defeat the variant found in South Africa.)

  9. Top | #1379
    Veteran Member George S's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    FL for winter
    Posts
    2,867
    Archived
    16,498
    Total Posts
    19,365
    Rep Power
    52
    Quote Originally Posted by southernhybrid View Post
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/05/h...t-all-surfaces


    Scientists in Oregon have spotted a homegrown version of a fast-spreading variant of the coronavirus that first surfaced in Britain — but now combined with a mutation that may make the variant less susceptible to vaccines.

    The researchers have so far found just a single case of this formidable combination, but genetic analysis suggested that the variant had been acquired in the community and did not arise in the patient.

    “We didn’t import this from elsewhere in the world — it occurred spontaneously,” said Brian O’Roak, a geneticist at Oregon Health and Science University who led the work. He and his colleagues participate in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s effort to track variants, and they have deposited their results in databases shared by scientists.

    The new version that surfaced in Portland has the same backbone, but also a mutation — E484K, or “Eek” — seen in variants of the virus circulating in South Africa, Brazil and New York City.

    Lab studies and clinical trials in South Africa indicate that the Eek mutation renders the current vaccines less effective by blunting the body’s immune response. (The vaccines still work, but the findings are worrying enough that Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna have begun testing new versions of their vaccines designed to defeat the variant found in South Africa.)
    There is the California mutation. There is the NY mutation. And now Seattle.

    Lockdowns and masking were designed to slow the spread to (1) avoid hospital overloading, (2) defer infections giving time for good treatment protocols to emerge, (3) time for a vaccine to be found.
    An unintended consequence was to provide billions of chances for mutation. The damn thing has, through blind chance, found a way to modify their spike protein so the immune system doesn't recognize it making the mRNA vaccine shooting for the target that is no longer there.

  10. Top | #1380
    Super Moderator
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Nevada
    Posts
    31,145
    Archived
    96,752
    Total Posts
    127,897
    Rep Power
    100
    Quote Originally Posted by George S View Post
    There is the California mutation. There is the NY mutation. And now Seattle.

    Lockdowns and masking were designed to slow the spread to (1) avoid hospital overloading, (2) defer infections giving time for good treatment protocols to emerge, (3) time for a vaccine to be found.
    An unintended consequence was to provide billions of chances for mutation. The damn thing has, through blind chance, found a way to modify their spike protein so the immune system doesn't recognize it making the mRNA vaccine shooting for the target that is no longer there.
    No--slowing it down doesn't increase the number of mutations. That's based on the number of people infected, not the time period over which they are infected.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •