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Thread: "Coronavirus and the US" or "We are all going to die!!!!"

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    Post "Coronavirus and the US" or "We are all going to die!!!!"

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    Quote Originally Posted by article
    The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is expected to announce this afternoon that the first case of Wuhan coronavirus has been reported in the United States, in Washington state, a federal source outside the CDC tells CNN.

    The source is involved in the matter and was made aware of a CDC media briefing scheduled for later today.
    I think I can say without an ounce of hyperbole, that this is the most frightening turn of events in the history of mankind. I can't see any way how this won't end in a terrible and cataclysmic way.

    I mean... the Ebola and SARS things were overhyped, but this time... it is for realz. We all ded!

  2. Top | #2
    Fair dinkum thinkum bilby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Higgins View Post
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    Quote Originally Posted by article
    The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is expected to announce this afternoon that the first case of Wuhan coronavirus has been reported in the United States, in Washington state, a federal source outside the CDC tells CNN.

    The source is involved in the matter and was made aware of a CDC media briefing scheduled for later today.
    I think I can say without an ounce of hyperbole, that this is the most frightening turn of events in the history of mankind. I can't see any way how this won't end in a terrible and cataclysmic way.

    I mean... the Ebola and SARS things were overhyped, but this time... it is for realz. We all ded!
    Most epidemics don't become pandemics. But some do. And we don't really have any way of preventing another from occurring.

    Bacterial diseases such as bubonic plague are not currently a threat, due to antibiotics, so we are at significantly reduced risk of a massively dangerous pandemic than was the case a century ago; Antibiotics can also significantly reduce mortality from secondary infections due to viral pandemics such as a repeat of the Spanish Flu of 1919-20. But nonetheless, a rapidly spreading deadly virus could easily kill half of humanity, particularly in this era of rapid international passenger transport.

    Any given 'scare' will likely turn out to be unimportant - often because the WHO, and national level bodies such as the US CDC, take appropriate action to keep a lid on them. But there's plenty of plausible scenarios in which the lid comes off, and hundreds of millions, or even billions, of people die.

    The 'Blue Fever' (aka 'Black Death') of the mid fourteenth century killed between 60 and 95% of people in it's area of effect, which was most of Europe and large parts of North Africa and the Middle East. It was probably bubonic plague, but that's not known for certain.

    Spanish Flu killed more people than WWI did - and is mis-named, as it almost certainly arose as a zoonotic disease in Kentucky, USA, and traveled to Europe with US troop deployments to the Western Front. It's name derives from the fact that as a neutral country, Spain was one of the few places where reports of the new killer disease weren't censored during the continued hostilities of the Great War.

    Every few centuries, a pandemic rips through humanity. We have some minor technological ability to mitigate some (but not all) of the possible future pandemics; But it's almost certain to happen again.

    It's rather like living on the San Andreas fault - most quakes are trivial; And many technologies are in place to make even large quakes less deadly. But sooner or later, there will be a big one that kills a lot of people. It's inevitable. And so it's understandable that hints that 'The big one' might be on its way are big news.

    Pandemic disease is (still) one of the largest threats facing humanity.

  3. Top | #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Higgins View Post
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    Quote Originally Posted by article
    The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is expected to announce this afternoon that the first case of Wuhan coronavirus has been reported in the United States, in Washington state, a federal source outside the CDC tells CNN.

    The source is involved in the matter and was made aware of a CDC media briefing scheduled for later today.
    I think I can say without an ounce of hyperbole, that this is the most frightening turn of events in the history of mankind. I can't see any way how this won't end in a terrible and cataclysmic way.

    I mean... the Ebola and SARS things were overhyped, but this time... it is for realz. We all ded!
    Ebola is a body fluid vector disease--while quite deadly it does not spread well in an informed population and will soon burn out. Scary but not a pandemic threat.

    SARS could have become a major disaster--it was only the world's health systems stomping on it hard that contained it before any victims ended up in areas that lacked adequate health systems. One victim into most places in Africa and the continent would have been in a very bad way. At that point the sort of reaction that stopped it's intrusions into various places would not have been possible.

    Once again we have a disease that has the potential to be bad, although this one looks like it's ability to spread from human to human is limited. Note, however, that there's always the potential for that to change overnight via gene transfer.


    Google turned up one link I find scary: https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-vir...ak-11578485668 (Note: This is not paywalled) There's a level 4 lab in Wuhan. Could this be some sort of lab accident?

  4. Top | #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Higgins View Post
    link

    Quote Originally Posted by article
    The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is expected to announce this afternoon that the first case of Wuhan coronavirus has been reported in the United States, in Washington state, a federal source outside the CDC tells CNN.

    The source is involved in the matter and was made aware of a CDC media briefing scheduled for later today.
    I think I can say without an ounce of hyperbole, that this is the most frightening turn of events in the history of mankind. I can't see any way how this won't end in a terrible and cataclysmic way.

    I mean... the Ebola and SARS things were overhyped, but this time... it is for realz. We all ded!
    Ebola is a body fluid vector disease--while quite deadly it does not spread well in an informed population and will soon burn out. Scary but not a pandemic threat.

    SARS could have become a major disaster--it was only the world's health systems stomping on it hard that contained it before any victims ended up in areas that lacked adequate health systems. One victim into most places in Africa and the continent would have been in a very bad way. At that point the sort of reaction that stopped it's intrusions into various places would not have been possible.

    Once again we have a disease that has the potential to be bad, although this one looks like it's ability to spread from human to human is limited. Note, however, that there's always the potential for that to change overnight via gene transfer.


    Google turned up one link I find scary: https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-vir...ak-11578485668 (Note: This is not paywalled) There's a level 4 lab in Wuhan. Could this be some sort of lab accident?
    Confirmed! This is The Stand! We are all d00m3d!

  5. Top | #5
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    Certainly possible. On of the functions Trump has diminished is the CDC.

    A Bond villain type could potentially unleash a virus or bacteria that destroys crops. Then there is a bio research experiment that gets loose. The African bee hybrid in the Americas were the result of an escape in South America from an experiment. Spread all the way to the USA. They do not like a lot of the plants regular bees like affecting pollination.

  6. Top | #6
    Fair dinkum thinkum bilby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Higgins View Post
    link

    Quote Originally Posted by article
    The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is expected to announce this afternoon that the first case of Wuhan coronavirus has been reported in the United States, in Washington state, a federal source outside the CDC tells CNN.

    The source is involved in the matter and was made aware of a CDC media briefing scheduled for later today.
    I think I can say without an ounce of hyperbole, that this is the most frightening turn of events in the history of mankind. I can't see any way how this won't end in a terrible and cataclysmic way.

    I mean... the Ebola and SARS things were overhyped, but this time... it is for realz. We all ded!
    Ebola is a body fluid vector disease--while quite deadly it does not spread well in an informed population and will soon burn out. Scary but not a pandemic threat.

    SARS could have become a major disaster--it was only the world's health systems stomping on it hard that contained it before any victims ended up in areas that lacked adequate health systems. One victim into most places in Africa and the continent would have been in a very bad way. At that point the sort of reaction that stopped it's intrusions into various places would not have been possible.

    Once again we have a disease that has the potential to be bad, although this one looks like it's ability to spread from human to human is limited. Note, however, that there's always the potential for that to change overnight via gene transfer.


    Google turned up one link I find scary: https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-vir...ak-11578485668 (Note: This is not paywalled) There's a level 4 lab in Wuhan. Could this be some sort of lab accident?
    More likely the causality is the reverse: China established a level 4 lab there because that part of China is a common starting point for new zoonotic viruses. Large, dense human populations with considerable exposure to livestock and poultry is pretty much the recipe for new viral infections - and a pretty good description of the large cities in China, such as Wuhan and Guangzhou. It's hardly surprising that these are the places that new diseases often arise, and therefore hardly surprising that the infectious disease labs are in those cities.

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    Elder Contributor barbos's Avatar
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    Pigs and chicken should be kept separate and in small fully quarantined groups at all time.

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    Fair dinkum thinkum bilby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by barbos View Post
    Pigs and chicken should be kept separate and in small fully quarantined groups at all time.
    That sounds like a great idea. How do you plan to enforce this in China, where many people still live in close proximity to both, and huge numbers of both are traded, live, in busy markets? Live meat is the only guaranteed fresh meat for most Chinese consumers. Banning the intermingling of live pigs and chickens would be at best hugely unpopular, and could easily lead to significant numbers of deaths from food poisoning, and/or a severe reduction in the quality and quantity of food available to ordinary chinese citizens.

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    Elder Contributor barbos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bilby View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by barbos View Post
    Pigs and chicken should be kept separate and in small fully quarantined groups at all time.
    That sounds like a great idea. How do you plan to enforce this in China, where many people still live in close proximity to both, and huge numbers of both are traded, live, in busy markets? Live meat is the only guaranteed fresh meat for most Chinese consumers. Banning the intermingling of live pigs and chickens would be at best hugely unpopular, and could easily lead to significant numbers of deaths from food poisoning, and/or a severe reduction in the quality and quantity of food available to ordinary chinese citizens.
    China is a totalitarian regime, aren't they?
    Meanwhile 440 infected and 9 dead. And it transmits between humans.

  10. Top | #10
    Fair dinkum thinkum bilby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by barbos View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by bilby View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by barbos View Post
    Pigs and chicken should be kept separate and in small fully quarantined groups at all time.
    That sounds like a great idea. How do you plan to enforce this in China, where many people still live in close proximity to both, and huge numbers of both are traded, live, in busy markets? Live meat is the only guaranteed fresh meat for most Chinese consumers. Banning the intermingling of live pigs and chickens would be at best hugely unpopular, and could easily lead to significant numbers of deaths from food poisoning, and/or a severe reduction in the quality and quantity of food available to ordinary chinese citizens.
    China is a totalitarian regime, aren't they?
    Meanwhile 440 infected and 9 dead. And it transmits between humans.
    The trick to running a totalitarian regime is to never issue an order that you know will be disobeyed, unless you are prepared and able to arrest all of those who disobey; Or unless your purpose is to make everyone an outlaw subject to arbitrary arrest.

    The Chinese government doesn't have the ability to enforce such a law - it would require arresting a sizeable fraction of the population (if they could all be identified and their crime detected, which they couldn't), and it would be widely ignored as the impractical and stupid demand that it is.

    And shutting the stable door wouldn't bring those nine people back to life.

    Nine dead is utterly trivial anyway. More people have been killed in Wuhan by automobiles in the last couple of weeks.

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