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Thread: Iowa Caucuses (or Cauci?)

  1. Top | #231
    Administrator lpetrich's Avatar
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    IDP Caucus 2020 - Iowa Democratic Party
    I redid the proportional allocation for 41 total delegates.
    Candidate SDE's Del's HA LR
    Bennet 0 0 0 0
    Biden 339.678 6 6 7
    Bloomberg 0.21 0 0 0
    Buttigieg 564.302 14 11 11
    Delaney 0 0 0 0
    Gabbard 0.114 0 0 0
    Klobuchar 263.883 1 5 5
    Patrick 0 0 0 0
    Sanders 561.528 12 11 11
    Steyer 6.619 0 0 0
    Warren 388.48 8 8 7
    Yang 21.856 0 0 0
    Other 0.693 0 0 0
    Uncommitted 3.732 0 0 0

    • SDE: State Delegate Equivalent
    • HA: Highest-averages proportional allocation - D'Hondt with and without initial round-down
    • LR: Largest-remainder proportional allocation

  2. Top | #232
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    The head of the Iowa Democratic party filed his resignation Wednesday, as the organization is still picking up the pieces from last week's caucus debacle.

    Troy Price had been head of the state party since 2017, but after his role in overseeing a process widely panned as disorganized and opaque, it became an open question whether he would stay on in his job.

    "While it is my desire to stay in this role and see this process through to completion, I do believe it is time for the Iowa Democratic Party to begin looking forward, and my presence in my current role makes that more difficult," Price said, in a letter to the Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee.

    Prior to being elected head of the state party in July 2017, Price worked on the presidential campaigns of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in Iowa.

    Last week's contest was Price's first presidential caucus as chairman, and he had long made it clear he hoped to use technology to make the caucus process more accessible and quick.
    https://www.npr.org/2020/02/12/80546...-night-debacle

    It just keeps getting worse.

  3. Top | #233
    Administrator lpetrich's Avatar
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  4. Top | #234
    Administrator lpetrich's Avatar
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    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "Candidate preferences aside, the integrity of our primaries are incredibly serious. We cannot afford to be pointing fingers- we need to pinpoint solutions.
    If the DNC was responsible for security and there were security failures, we need to address that. https://t.co/ix4cK71v7W" / Twitter

    noting
    The Iowa Caucuses App Had Another Problem: It Could Have Been Hacked — ProPublica
    While there is no evidence hackers intercepted or tampered with the results, a security firm consulted by ProPublica found that the app lacks key safeguards.

    ...
    The IowaReporterApp was so insecure that vote totals, passwords and other sensitive information could have been intercepted or even changed, according to officials at Massachusetts-based Veracode, a security firm that reviewed the software at ProPublica’s request. Because of a lack of safeguards, transmissions to and from the phone were left largely unprotected.

    Chris Wysopal, Veracode’s chief technology officer, said the problems were elementary. He called it a “poor decision” to release the software without first fixing them. “It is important for all mobile apps that deal with sensitive data to have adequate security testing, and have any vulnerabilities fixed before being released for use,” he said.
    So this app had some elementary mistakes in it.

  5. Top | #235
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    Quote Originally Posted by lpetrich View Post
    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "Candidate preferences aside, the integrity of our primaries are incredibly serious. We cannot afford to be pointing fingers- we need to pinpoint solutions.
    If the DNC was responsible for security and there were security failures, we need to address that. https://t.co/ix4cK71v7W" / Twitter

    noting
    The Iowa Caucuses App Had Another Problem: It Could Have Been Hacked — ProPublica
    While there is no evidence hackers intercepted or tampered with the results, a security firm consulted by ProPublica found that the app lacks key safeguards.

    ...
    The IowaReporterApp was so insecure that vote totals, passwords and other sensitive information could have been intercepted or even changed, according to officials at Massachusetts-based Veracode, a security firm that reviewed the software at ProPublica’s request. Because of a lack of safeguards, transmissions to and from the phone were left largely unprotected.

    Chris Wysopal, Veracode’s chief technology officer, said the problems were elementary. He called it a “poor decision” to release the software without first fixing them. “It is important for all mobile apps that deal with sensitive data to have adequate security testing, and have any vulnerabilities fixed before being released for use,” he said.
    So this app had some elementary mistakes in it.
    Okay, DNC’s involvement only centered around security... but the app was terribly insecure. Who in the hell is in charge of IT for the DNC, Gomer Pyle.

  6. Top | #236
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    Hardly known for leftist conspiracy theorizing, USA Today offered some chilling reflections the morning after:

    ‘What’s this about Shadow and where did the app come from? The app was created by a company called Shadow Inc., and issued by Jimmy Hickey of Shadow Inc., metadata of the program that the Des Moines Register analyzed Tuesday shows. A LinkedIn profile for James Hickey lists him as COO of Shadow and an engineering manager for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign. Two other former Clinton campaign workers, former Gerard Niemira and Krista Davis, co-founded Shadow…The New York Times has reported that ACRONYM – a Democratic nonprofit founded in 2017 “to educate, inspire, register, and mobilize voters,” according to its website – supported Shadow. Its founder and CEO is Tara McGowan, a former journalist and digital producer with President Obama’s 2012 presidential campaign, The Los Angeles Times reported….Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Troy Price, who also worked as Clinton’s 2016 Iowa political director, did not immediately respond to requests for comment Tuesday about the relationship between the party and Shadow, which it paid $63,184 for website development and travel expenses…’

    It gets worse. According to the Los Angeles Times, in an article titled “Tech Firm Started by Clinton Campaign Veterans Linked to Iowa Caucus Debacle”: “Among Shadow’s clients is Pete Buttegieg’s presidential campaign, which paid $42,500 to the firm in July 2019 for ‘software rights and subscriptions,’ according to disclosures to the FEC.”
    https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/02...ame-is-rigged/

  7. Top | #237
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    All,


    I have been watching the official results at the link I gave and I noticed recently that they have changed.

    For example, the previous numbers had more of a distance between Sanders and Buttigieg:
    Buttigieg's SDE (as you can see in lpetrich's table) was 564.302 while Sanders had SDE of 561.528:

    Quote Originally Posted by lpetrich View Post
    IDP Caucus 2020 - Iowa Democratic Party
    I redid the proportional allocation for 41 total delegates.
    Candidate SDE's Del's HA LR
    Bennet 0 0 0 0
    Biden 339.678 6 6 7
    Bloomberg 0.21 0 0 0
    Buttigieg 564.302 14 11 11
    Delaney 0 0 0 0
    Gabbard 0.114 0 0 0
    Klobuchar 263.883 1 5 5
    Patrick 0 0 0 0
    Sanders 561.528 12 11 11
    Steyer 6.619 0 0 0
    Warren 388.48 8 8 7
    Yang 21.856 0 0 0
    Other 0.693 0 0 0
    Uncommitted 3.732 0 0 0

    • SDE: State Delegate Equivalent
    • HA: Highest-averages proportional allocation - D'Hondt with and without initial round-down
    • LR: Largest-remainder proportional allocation

    HOWEVER, here are new values from the official website:
    Candidate SDE's
    Buttigieg 563.207
    Sanders 563.127

    There is currently a .08 difference in SDEs, but the national delegates remain disproportionate for some reason.

    I will add that I examined a couple of the cases that PyramidHead brought to the thread and the complaints were mathematically valid.

    For example, I spot checked randomly 2 of the complaints submitted by PyramidHead, the first 2:
    I spot checked the second one in the new results and see it has been adjusted to be mathematically correct.

    I don't know that these are the final numbers now and for the last week or so I have been delving into the numbers to reproduce the issues. So I actually have both the old file with old results and new file with new results and can compare.

    While I will report back any issues or non-issues I see, it is important to note that (1) there were actually many validly complained about problems because the Sanders campaign submitted 25 issues and the Buttigieg submitted 57, but overall Sanders decreased the distance and (2) the national delegate assignment remains disproportionate.

  8. Top | #238
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    Here is the worst offending row in the table as far as I can tell.

    County: Scott
    Precinct: (D34) City of Davenport
    Benefited: Other
    Harmed: Sanders

    The category of Other had ZERO Final votes. But for some reason ended up with SDEs. (.4133)

    I looked at final votes and constructed an ideal proportional allotment to candidates based on the sum of all delegate assignments in that precinct. Then, I looked at which candidate was furthest from the ideal (Sanders) which one benefited the most (Other). I then determined the root mean square between the ideal proportional assignment and the actual assignment. Afterward, I took the root mean square of the putative correction which would give the delegate to Sanders to see which fit of discrete delegate assignments would have lesser error from the ideal and the answer was assigning it to Sanders by far. So when I wrote that this was the most offending data point I had meant that the RMS was furthest away from RMS of putative correction which I hope you will all agree is a fairly reasonable and objective way to measure error.

    This is only a single data point as there are others where the error is less obvious.

  9. Top | #239
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    editing post...
    Last edited by Don2 (Don1 Revised); 02-21-2020 at 07:49 PM.

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