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Thread: The Virus - Are You Affected?

  1. Top | #421
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jokodo View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by DrZoidberg View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by seanie View Post
    So when do you reckon the number of US confirmed cases will be double those of China?
    Confirmed cases is a worthless number. Even South Korea and Iceland (who are are at the top of testing) are still testing a tiny fraction of the population. USA is among the worst testers in the world, they still have many confirmed. There's countries in Africa where the numbers of confirmed cases is identical to that of the number of dead, ie only people already dead are tested. In Italy they only test people who are extremely ill, which is why they have a death rate of 40%. It does NOT mean that four out of ten infected in Italy die from it. That's not understanding how statistics work.

    Stop using that number!!! It's only misleading.

    Instead only compare confirmed dead from Covid-19. It's the only number that means the same thing across the globe.
    ...and maybe not even that. France is (I think even officially?) not counting deaths outside of hospital contexts, so a lot of people are dying of COVID-19 without showing up in any statistics - and their share is presumably growing as hospitals are more stretched to their limits and send away people with symptoms that might or might not be on track to become serious. Some Italian communes have excess mortality figures 4-10 times higher than the official count of COVID-19 deaths: https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_...cdbe1130.shtml
    England and Wales too, apparently: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...qoWjOFaqmAPFbo

  2. Top | #422
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jokodo View Post
    UK wide there's thought to be a discrepancy but it's not thought to be large and they're trying to integrate different sets of numbers. Up till now the confirmed deaths have all been from hospital settings where the CV19 status was largely already confirmed. There are also people who've died at home, CV19 has been suspected and tested for, but there's a time lag for confirmation. Those numbers are likely to be small in comparison to hospital ones, at least at this stage, but they might get added into the overall numbers some time after death.

  3. Top | #423
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    Quote Originally Posted by seanie View Post
    Sorry, just re-checked.

    You're now ahead of China in official deaths.
    How do you feel about that ?

  4. Top | #424
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jokodo View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by DrZoidberg View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by seanie View Post
    So when do you reckon the number of US confirmed cases will be double those of China?
    Confirmed cases is a worthless number. Even South Korea and Iceland (who are are at the top of testing) are still testing a tiny fraction of the population. USA is among the worst testers in the world, they still have many confirmed. There's countries in Africa where the numbers of confirmed cases is identical to that of the number of dead, ie only people already dead are tested. In Italy they only test people who are extremely ill, which is why they have a death rate of 40%. It does NOT mean that four out of ten infected in Italy die from it. That's not understanding how statistics work.

    Stop using that number!!! It's only misleading.

    Instead only compare confirmed dead from Covid-19. It's the only number that means the same thing across the globe.
    ...and maybe not even that. France is (I think even officially?) not counting deaths outside of hospital contexts, so a lot of people are dying of COVID-19 without showing up in any statistics - and their share is presumably growing as hospitals are more stretched to their limits and send away people with symptoms that might or might not be on track to become serious. Some Italian communes have excess mortality figures 4-10 times higher than the official count of COVID-19 deaths: https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_...cdbe1130.shtml
    I think this basic problem applies everywhere except the few places that stomped hard and early. I don't think we will ever have good data on the death toll.

  5. Top | #425
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    Quote Originally Posted by TSwizzle View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by seanie View Post
    Sorry, just re-checked.

    You're now ahead of China in official deaths.
    How do you feel about that ?
    Appalled.

  6. Top | #426
    Contributor DrZoidberg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seanie View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by DrZoidberg View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by seanie View Post
    So when do you reckon the number of US confirmed cases will be double those of China?
    Confirmed cases is a worthless number. Even South Korea and Iceland (who are are at the top of testing) are still testing a tiny fraction of the population. USA is among the worst testers in the world, they still have many confirmed. There's countries in Africa where the numbers of confirmed cases is identical to that of the number of dead, ie only people already dead are tested. In Italy they only test people who are extremely ill, which is why they have a death rate of 40%. It does NOT mean that four out of ten infected in Italy die from it. That's not understanding how statistics work.

    Stop using that number!!! It's only misleading.

    Instead only compare confirmed dead from Covid-19. It's the only number that means the same thing across the globe. Also, don't trust China's numbers. Hot tip. They have never been honest about anything else ever... So why would they start now? This time around they seem to be more open an cooperative than they have been previously. But that ain't saying much.
    The confirmed number of US dead could overtake China's within a couple of hours from now.

    So when do you reckon the number of US confirmed dead will be double those of China?

    By the weekend?

    When will it be 10 times those of China?
    Well... Trump is the worst possible person to be in charge of something like this. So button down your hatches. It's going to be an absolute disaster in USA. Luckily Anthony Fauci, who is the medical advisor to USA, is among the most competent medical advisors on the planet (sorted out the AIDS crisis). But now Trump is talking about firing him. OMFG. On the other hand, Fauci has an impeccable reputation. So even if he is fired, I have a feeling all US states will ignore Trump and follow Fauci's advice. But yeah... USA is not looking good right now. It doesn't really matter how wise Fauci is, unless he gets power to whip Americans into line and get them to behave responsibly.
    Last edited by DrZoidberg; 04-01-2020 at 10:34 AM. Reason: Fauci. Not Scalia

  7. Top | #427
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrZoidberg View Post

    Well... Trump is the worst possible person to be in charge of something like this. So button down your hatches. It's going to be an absolute disaster in USA. Luckily Anthony Scalia, who is the medical advisor to USA, is among the most competent medical advisors on the planet (sorted out the AIDS crisis). But now Trump is talking about firing him. OMFG. On the other hand, Scalia has an impeccable reputation. So even if he is fired, I have a feeling all US states will ignore Trump and follow Scalia's advice. But yeah... USA is not looking good right now. It doesn't really matter how wise Scalia is, unless he gets power to whip Americans into line and get them to behave responsibly.
    Trump can't fire Supreme Court judges

  8. Top | #428
    Contributor DrZoidberg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by barbos View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by DrZoidberg View Post

    Well... Trump is the worst possible person to be in charge of something like this. So button down your hatches. It's going to be an absolute disaster in USA. Luckily Anthony Scalia, who is the medical advisor to USA, is among the most competent medical advisors on the planet (sorted out the AIDS crisis). But now Trump is talking about firing him. OMFG. On the other hand, Scalia has an impeccable reputation. So even if he is fired, I have a feeling all US states will ignore Trump and follow Scalia's advice. But yeah... USA is not looking good right now. It doesn't really matter how wise Scalia is, unless he gets power to whip Americans into line and get them to behave responsibly.
    Trump can't fire Supreme Court judges
    Sorry. I meant Anthony Fauci.

  9. Top | #429
    Elder Contributor barbos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrZoidberg View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by barbos View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by DrZoidberg View Post

    Well... Trump is the worst possible person to be in charge of something like this. So button down your hatches. It's going to be an absolute disaster in USA. Luckily Anthony Scalia, who is the medical advisor to USA, is among the most competent medical advisors on the planet (sorted out the AIDS crisis). But now Trump is talking about firing him. OMFG. On the other hand, Scalia has an impeccable reputation. So even if he is fired, I have a feeling all US states will ignore Trump and follow Scalia's advice. But yeah... USA is not looking good right now. It doesn't really matter how wise Scalia is, unless he gets power to whip Americans into line and get them to behave responsibly.
    Trump can't fire Supreme Court judges
    Sorry. I meant Anthony Fauci.
    I know, I just don't understand how you managed to pull off such a typo.
    And I don't think Trump can fire Fauci either, not without 25th-ing himself.

  10. Top | #430
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    Schools in this area have tried using Zoom for virtual classrooms. But they apparently chose to not password protect the meetings. There is a story of non-students breaking into these Zoom meetings, and one apparently played video of the New Zealand mosque shooting, while saying a bunch of bigoted stuff. The schools are now reconsidering using Zoom. They have other resources for teachers to still work from home.

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