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Thread: The Stock Market

  1. Top | #171
    Veteran Member TV and credit cards's Avatar
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    Well, I’m guessing the markets should stop their wild swings for awhile, now that President Behind the Curve finally figured out we’re not coming out of this anytime soon. This should tamp down the emotional responses. Hopefully we’ll just bounce around in these choppy waters until real numbers start coming in on how bad or not this is really going to be.

    My worry is how many trillions can the government throw at this economy? We do have to pay interest on all this, don’t we?
    Dwight

  2. Top | #172
    Formerly Joedad
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    Quote Originally Posted by TV and credit cards View Post
    My worry is how many trillions can the government throw at this economy? We do have to pay interest on all this, don’t we?
    I don't think Trumpo and his kind really care about the health of the U.S. To them the world is simply a place to play your game and make yourself as wealthy as possible. There isn't anything special about any place or country on the planet. It's all there to be exploited.

    Deficit spending is how you make yourself wealthier, the more the better. Concern about repayment is something for losers.

  3. Top | #173
    Veteran Member funinspace's Avatar
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    Bottoms Up

    I thought this was a decent summary of when things may bottom as any. It also makes a good point about how corporate buy-backs were a significant party of the last few years market gains, and it probably won't be nearly so big going forward...
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/st...chs-2020-03-30
    To feel confident that the stock market has found a bottom, Kostin and his colleagues say three criteria must be met:

    1 The viral spread in the United States must begin to slow, so that the ultimate economic impact of the virus and containment efforts can be understood.
    2 There must be evidence that “extraordinary measures” taken by the Federal Reserve and Congress to support the U.S. economy are sufficient.
    <snip>
    3 Investor sentiment and positioning must bottom out. Goldman analysts point to their U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator, which combines nine measures of equity positioning, noting that it has only declined by 1.4 standard deviations, versus standard deviations of between -2 and -3 in recent corrections.
    <snip>
    “Buybacks have represented the single largest source of U.S. equity demand in each of the last several years, and we believe higher volatility and lower equity valuations are among the likely consequences of reduced buybacks."

  4. Top | #174
    Content Thief Elixir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by funinspace View Post
    I thought this was a decent summary of when things may bottom as any. It also makes a good point about how corporate buy-backs were a significant party of the last few years market gains, and it probably won't be nearly so big going forward...
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/st...chs-2020-03-30
    To feel confident that the stock market has found a bottom, Kostin and his colleagues say three criteria must be met:

    1 The viral spread in the United States must begin to slow, so that the ultimate economic impact of the virus and containment efforts can be understood.
    2 There must be evidence that “extraordinary measures” taken by the Federal Reserve and Congress to support the U.S. economy are sufficient.
    <snip>
    3 Investor sentiment and positioning must bottom out. Goldman analysts point to their U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator, which combines nine measures of equity positioning, noting that it has only declined by 1.4 standard deviations, versus standard deviations of between -2 and -3 in recent corrections.
    <snip>
    “Buybacks have represented the single largest source of U.S. equity demand in each of the last several years, and we believe higher volatility and lower equity valuations are among the likely consequences of reduced buybacks."
    I suspect it's a mistake to try to apply a template from past crashes to this situation. I agree with the three criteria to some extent but suspect that the timeline is going to be drawn out to at least 2 years before previous levels are attained. I don't think we're going to see another 2008 deep steep trough following the initial 20% drop, but rather a slow erosion over 12-16 months followed by a moderately fast recovery.
    If effective treatments or a vaccine comes along in the meanwhile, that will cause a bunch of spikes as the fear factor is mitigated but entire economic engines are compromised, and that isn't going to be a quick fix no matter how much money Trump prints and stuffs in his and his donors' pockets, or how fiscally wise a Democrat President might be. That fact is slowly going to dawn on people, and the markets will continue to slip. Dirty Don's delayed reaction and bungled response probably stretched the recovery timeline by year for the US.

  5. Top | #175
    Veteran Member TV and credit cards's Avatar
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    Clownstick Orange and the Incredible Recessing Legislature may actually get one right and push through an infrastructure package. We could actually make America's infrastructure great safe again. Nancy, that shrewd negotiator told Donald he'll get to wear his hardhat so he's all in.

    Trump and Democratic House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi have found common ground in wanting to include capital works projects in this “Phase 4” legislation to provide jobs for millions of newly displaced workers. These will be labor intensive jobs. I wonder how many of our newly unemployed country(wo)men are even fit enough to work construction eight hours a day? I was thinking CAT would be a good play here. Now I'm thinking makers of AEDs.


    Read on CNBC mortgage applications are off 24% annually. Owie!
    Dwight

  6. Top | #176
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    Wait... what? The solution to a pandemic is to get all the people who lost their jobs all together so they can build roads and buildings and sewers?

  7. Top | #177
    Content Thief Elixir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Higgins View Post
    Wait... what? The solution to a pandemic is to get all the people who lost their jobs all together so they can build roads and buildings and sewers?
    Sure - it's Infrastucture Week! (AGAIN)
    Of course most of the jobs will be working on The Wall, and paychecks will be signed by President Obrador.

  8. Top | #178
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    I think one problem with an infrastructure bill at this point is that in '09 they were pushing "shovel ready". Infrastructure is a long term stimulus, not instant stimulus. It takes time for engineers to work hard with designs, put them to bid, and have the contractor fuck it all up and send engineers into therapy for suicidal tendencies.

    I know Ohio has been strapped for cash, so construction is taking longer because we can't afford to build it straight up. So that could be accelerated a bit. But then we also get back to the issue of, we only have so many contractors. Right now, we don't need a stimulus like we did in '09.

  9. Top | #179
    Veteran Member Ford's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Higgins View Post
    Wait... what? The solution to a pandemic is to get all the people who lost their jobs all together so they can build roads and buildings and sewers?
    It's such an innovative and original solution to a national crisis! All we need next is an economic/environmental catastrophe to hit the middle of the country, a world war, and we'll be right back to where we were in the "good old days" of the 1950s!

  10. Top | #180
    Veteran Member James Brown's Avatar
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    Down another 5% today.

    I believe new unemployment figures come out tomorrow, and they're expected to be even worse than last week, since not all states were locking down yet when the last figure was calculated.

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