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Thread: This is What is Going to Happen - we need suppression, not mitigation

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    Content Thief Elixir's Avatar
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    This is What is Going to Happen - we need suppression, not mitigation

    This is by far the best article I have read to-date on the epidemiology of COVID-19. I strongly urge everyone to read it, and in fact think it should be required reading for anyone with a high school education.

    The article spells out what will likely occur in terms of infections, hospitalizations, critical cases and deaths from COVID-19 over time depending on what steps are taken.
    AFAIK it uses the most massive data set of any compiled to date, and all the assumptions are transparently laid out. Please read, share, distribute. Let's get our politicians educated on their options and the consequences of the decisions they are going to have to make in short order.


    THANK YOU


    This article has been the result of a herculean effort by a group of normal citizens working around the clock to find all the relevant research available to structure it into one piece, in case it can help others process all the information that is out there about the coronavirus.

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    If we keep the infections that low (good luck on doing it!) we will have to do a very strict quarantine of all travelers until a vaccine comes along. I don't think we can maintain such a quarantine.

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    Content Thief Elixir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel View Post
    If we keep the infections that low (good luck on doing it!) we will have to do a very strict quarantine of all travelers until a vaccine comes along. I don't think we can maintain such a quarantine.
    Well, that's kinda the point. If we go hard and fast we don't have to maintain it so much. Start now, go hard and put strict controls on behavior for a number of weeks (best possible outcome ~4000 US deaths), or ... put half assed measures in place and let it balloon, then be forced to put harsh measures in place for 18 months (worst possible outcome ~10,000,000 US deaths).

    In that worst possible outcome, those deaths are only the primary ones directly caused by the disease, and mostly due to the fact that the care and treatment resources wouldn't even be close to adequate. It doesn't include the heart attack patient who dies before EMS gets there because EMS is overwhelmed with Corvid-19 patients or other such deaths.

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    China and South Korea have turned the epidemic. I honestly think the US is incapable of mounting a similar proactive response.

    BTW that was an excellent article.

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    Quote Originally Posted by T.G.G. Moogly View Post
    China and South Korea have turned the epidemic. I honestly think the US is incapable of mounting a similar proactive response.
    The Cheato cartel and Moscow Mitch will probably reject any measure that would put a stop to this thing before it's time for the November election - which they will then cancel. The White House has already declined to invoke the Defense Production Act which would put a big dent in the spread of the Trump Virus, and now they want another giveaway to big business with zero assurance that they won't just use the money for more stock buybacks.

    Again - if we locked the country down for a few weeks starting NOW, there could be as few as 4000 American deaths. If we don't, there might be ten million.
    That is a factor of 2,500, meaning that for every person who is inevitably going to die, these jackasses are likely to kill up to 2500 more people just to keep themselves in power.

    BTW that was an excellent article.
    I agree - and again, I think it should be required reading. People don't understand how critical timely action is.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Elixir View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel View Post
    If we keep the infections that low (good luck on doing it!) we will have to do a very strict quarantine of all travelers until a vaccine comes along. I don't think we can maintain such a quarantine.
    Well, that's kinda the point. If we go hard and fast we don't have to maintain it so much. Start now, go hard and put strict controls on behavior for a number of weeks (best possible outcome ~4000 US deaths), or ... put half assed measures in place and let it balloon, then be forced to put harsh measures in place for 18 months (worst possible outcome ~10,000,000 US deaths).

    In that worst possible outcome, those deaths are only the primary ones directly caused by the disease, and mostly due to the fact that the care and treatment resources wouldn't even be close to adequate. It doesn't include the heart attack patient who dies before EMS gets there because EMS is overwhelmed with Corvid-19 patients or other such deaths.
    I don't understand. We can't hope to drive the count to zero, we are going to have to deal with this until we have immunity, either from infection or vaccine.

    This morning's newsletters included a video about how to use one ventilator on 4 patients at once. Hospitals are going to need to take that sort of risk.

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    Well, we are already passed 40,000 infections, and it seems 100,000+ by Fri/Sat seems inevitable as state governments react too late to the crisis over economic concerns that have gone unaddressed by Congress and President Trump.
    Quote Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Elixir View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel View Post
    If we keep the infections that low (good luck on doing it!) we will have to do a very strict quarantine of all travelers until a vaccine comes along. I don't think we can maintain such a quarantine.
    Well, that's kinda the point. If we go hard and fast we don't have to maintain it so much. Start now, go hard and put strict controls on behavior for a number of weeks (best possible outcome ~4000 US deaths), or ... put half assed measures in place and let it balloon, then be forced to put harsh measures in place for 18 months (worst possible outcome ~10,000,000 US deaths).

    In that worst possible outcome, those deaths are only the primary ones directly caused by the disease, and mostly due to the fact that the care and treatment resources wouldn't even be close to adequate. It doesn't include the heart attack patient who dies before EMS gets there because EMS is overwhelmed with Corvid-19 patients or other such deaths.
    I don't understand. We can't hope to drive the count to zero, we are going to have to deal with this until we have immunity, either from infection or vaccine.

    This morning's newsletters included a video about how to use one ventilator on 4 patients at once. Hospitals are going to need are being forced to take that sort of risk.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Elixir View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by T.G.G. Moogly View Post
    China and South Korea have turned the epidemic. I honestly think the US is incapable of mounting a similar proactive response.
    The Cheato cartel and Moscow Mitch will probably reject any measure that would put a stop to this thing before it's time for the November election - which they will then cancel. The White House has already declined to invoke the Defense Production Act which would put a big dent in the spread of the Trump Virus, and now they want another giveaway to big business with zero assurance that they won't just use the money for more stock buybacks.

    Again - if we locked the country down for a few weeks starting NOW, there could be as few as 4000 American deaths. If we don't, there might be ten million.
    That is a factor of 2,500, meaning that for every person who is inevitably going to die, these jackasses are likely to kill up to 2500 more people just to keep themselves in power.

    BTW that was an excellent article.
    I agree - and again, I think it should be required reading. People don't understand how critical timely action is.
    Did you really just cal it the "Trump virus?" I can not believe what I am reading.

    Did you also call the Swine Flu "the Obama Flu?" I'm guessing not.

    How can people be so stupid as to think Trump is a bumbling buffoon and also capable of creating a virus in the lab all by himself???

    Classic fascist double think. The enemy must be weak and strong at the same time.

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    Elder Contributor Keith&Co.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Half-Life View Post
    How can people be so stupid as to think Trump is a bumbling buffoon and also capable of creating a virus in the lab all by himself???
    No, child, just no.
    This is a Trump Flu not gecsuse he's the source, but because he cannot bribe it, bully it, or sic lawyers on it. And no matter how hard any Republicans try to cover his ass, it's still going to be there, killing people, on his watch.
    It has defeated all of his usual tricks, and clearly highlighted his failings as a leader.
    It is definitely his defining crisis, and he's fucking it up.

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