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Thread: The World-O-Meter Thread

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    Content Thief Elixir's Avatar
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    The World-O-Meter Thread

    Wanted a place to put screen shots, leaving a timeline for how this thing is unfolding.
    Worldometers has a metric shit ton of information, updated constantly. I intend to post this shot, as an overview of the US vs. the runners up.
    I'll try to do this toward the end of the day, GMT - which is the "day" that they use.



    New records:
    * First day with over 20k new cases in the US.
    * Beating the first runner up in new cases by over 60%
    * 210 more US deaths than yesterday, a record 1-day increase
    * First day in double digits for deaths per million population - but don't celebrate too much; we have 10, Italy has 192. Which might portend some 200,000 new cases per day when we reach the point where they are.

    One could say that a bright spot is that less than 1% of US cases has proved fatal - so far. But more than 94% of all US cases are still listed as "active". The number dead (3156) is more than 64 percent of all cases that have been "resolved" (8662).

    It's a shocking picture that runs contrary to the predictions and guarantees of our laughing stock, but still early in the process. Trump's failure to take leadership in any regard, his elevation of his own image and the short term economy as priorities combined with his gutting of the agencies that would have handled the situation, could push the peak back by weeks or even months, and raise that peak to eye-popping heights.
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    Last edited by Elixir; 03-31-2020 at 02:57 AM. Reason: link to worldometers/coronavirus

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    I've been following as well. It's hard to know how meaningful the number of confirmed cases stat is country to country, though it does show a sense of increase within each country. I would think the deaths (and deaths/1m population) are more consistently recorded across nations.

    For the most part I find myself looking at Italy and Spain due to how hard they have both been hit, then Canada as my home country and the US as our immediate neighbour. It's difficult to understand how Italy and Spain are going to stem the tide at this point. Right now in Canada we have adequate resources to treat people. A few of our one day spikes in deaths were due to old folks homes getting hit hard. But the number of severe cases per day will almost certainly keep climbing. Because our population is spread so strangely across such a large landmass, there is going to be very inconsistent capacity to handle an increasing number of hospitalizations.

    A minor point of interest, but that spreadsheet is not well suited to regions with less than 1 million people. San Marino is listed with 26 deaths, but 766/1m pop. Not mathematically incorrect, but kind of misleading.

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    Content Thief Elixir's Avatar
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    Good point about smaller nations. Variable reporting practices also skew the picture. Then there's my bad math; 3156 is obviously not 64% of 8662, it's the inverse (36%).

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    Content Thief Elixir's Avatar
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    3-31



    Notes:
    * New record number of US and World deaths...
    * Record number of new US and World cases ...
    * Tomorrow is April:

    Quote Originally Posted by Half-Life View Post
    ... by April we will be laughing going,
    "Remember how everyone panicked over the coronavirus
    because the media started fear mongering?"
    Moral: Don't listen to Trump or to anyone who listens to Trump
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elixir View Post
    New records:
    * First day with over 20k new cases in the US.
    * Beating the first runner up in new cases by over 60%
    You can't compare raw numbers like that. USA has a large population.
    Based on numbers from the screen shot in your OP, Italy (population 60.5 million) still has slightly more new cases per capita than US even though their epidemic is farther gone and flattening. Spain (pop. 46.7 million) has significantly more new cases per capita.

    * 210 more US deaths than yesterday, a record 1-day increase
    Yes, the daily cases and deaths are increasing, but the rate of increase is slowing. It's not rising exponentially. That shows that the social distancing measures are starting to work. That is heartening.



    * First day in double digits for deaths per million population - but don't celebrate too much; we have 10, Italy has 192. Which might portend some 200,000 new cases per day when we reach the point where they are.
    Italy is not destiny. We have been about 2 weeks behind Italy, but two weeks ago Italy was already a major clusterfuck. There is no reason to assume we will mirror Italy. Or Spain.
    Speaking of Italy, they seem to have peaked. At last they are getting some handle on the situation, even though they went through a lot of pain to get there.

    One could say that a bright spot is that less than 1% of US cases has proved fatal - so far. But more than 94% of all US cases are still listed as "active". The number dead (3156) is more than 64 percent of all cases that have been "resolved" (8662).
    It takes time for the cases to completely resolve themselves. That said, in a few weeks we should have >50k healed cases. That's a lot of people we can take antibodies from, which seems to be our best hope for effective treatment and prophylaxis until a vaccine is ready, which won't be this year unfortunately.

    It's a shocking picture that runs contrary to the predictions and guarantees of our laughing stock, but still early in the process. Trump's failure to take leadership in any regard, his elevation of his own image and the short term economy as priorities combined with his gutting of the agencies that would have handled the situation, could push the peak back by weeks or even months, and raise that peak to eye-popping heights.
    "Pushing the peak back" means flattening the curve, i.e. a lower peak. High peak would occur with an early peak. Also, Trump is no longer talking about opening the country back up soon. So maybe he is learning.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Derec View Post
    You can't compare raw numbers like that. USA has a large population.
    Based on numbers from the screen shot in your OP, Italy (population 60.5 million) still has slightly more new cases per capita than US even though their epidemic is farther gone and flattening. Spain (pop. 46.7 million) has significantly more new cases per capita.



    Yes, the daily cases and deaths are increasing, but the rate of increase is slowing. It's not rising exponentially. That shows that the social distancing measures are starting to work. That is heartening.

    I laud your optimism, but ignoring the significant fluctuation, the three day average of deaths has doubled in four days (March 29-30 / March 25-27 = 2.005). The case count curve *appears* to be flattening but that might as well be a saturation effect due limits on the number of tests that can be conducted - New York's rate of positive tests (more than a third, 75k confirmed cases out of 200k tests conducted) certainly indicates a very high number of unrecorded cases.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Derec View Post
    You can't compare raw numbers like that. USA has a large population.
    Based on numbers from the screen shot in your OP, Italy (population 60.5 million) still has slightly more new cases per capita than US even though their epidemic is farther gone and flattening.
    The US has a large population indeed, but the cases aren't uniformly spread. New York State (just under 20 million population) already has more confirmed cases than Hubei province (60 million) in China, and almost twice as many as Lombardy in Italy (10 million, so a very similar rate). Deaths are lagging 2-3 weeks behind because people don't drop dead as soon as they're infected, but yesterday New York already recorded just shy of 400 deaths in a day. I predict a peak mid-Month of 2-3000 deaths per day and possibly more for New York alone - and by that time, other parts of the country may have become emerging hotspots.

    I hope I'm wrong though.

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    General downward trend for new cases in Italy.

    Up until end of yesterday.

    It would be encouraging if today's numbers fell below 4k.
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    "Let us hope that it is not so. Or if it is, let us pray that the fact does not become generally known."

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    Content Thief Elixir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Derec View Post
    You can't compare raw numbers like that. USA has a large population.
    That's why I posted the whole spreadsheet Derec. We can definitely start patting ourselves on the back as Trump would like, since he has single-handedly kept our infection rate down to less than a third of Italy's (570/m vs 1750/m), and the death rate is only 12/m vs 206/m for Italy. So go dance in the street - those are numbers that every "I'm not a Trumpsucker" should be celebrating.

    But do it soon, Derec, because in a few weeks we will be where Italy is now in terms of those numbers. Hopefully (for you, Trump et al) Italy will be in even worse shape by then so you can continue to point to them and sing the praises of the fed's management of the crisis.

    Seriously dude - you do yourself no favors by sounding like Half-Whatever.

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