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Thread: The World-O-Meter Thread

  1. Top | #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel View Post
    The sacrifice granny crowd wants it over as fast as possible, never mind the megadeaths.
    But there needs to be some middle ground between "sacrifice granny" crowd, which wants to open everything up as soon as possible, and "we have to remain on lockdown until Christmas".

  2. Top | #112
    Fair dinkum thinkum bilby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Derec View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel View Post
    The sacrifice granny crowd wants it over as fast as possible, never mind the megadeaths.
    But there needs to be some middle ground between "sacrifice granny" crowd, which wants to open everything up as soon as possible, and "we have to remain on lockdown until Christmas".
    Your desire for it to be so doesn't make it so.

    Whether there can be any such middle ground is entirely dependent on the way the virus spreads through the population, and what measures are effective in limiting that spread to a sufficient extent as to keep deaths and permanent disabilities to an acceptable level.

    Of course, we don't yet know any of the variables with certainty, so there's a wide range of possibilities; But at this stage, it seems more likely than not that any attempt to reduce the severity of the lockdown, before either an effective treatment or an effective vaccine (or both) are widely and cheaply available, would be disastrous - and it's very unlikely indeed that either will be available as soon as Christmas 2020, much less June.

    Wishes, hopes, and desires count for nothing. Reality is real, and doesn't give two shits about the economy.

    This is not a negotiation; We either do what is necessary, or lots of people die. No middle ground, no compromises, no appeals to the dire impact on the economy, or on people's preferences and wants.

    We don't have to like it, and we can't make a deal with it, so we have to cope with it.

  3. Top | #113
    Content Thief Elixir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Derec View Post
    Yesterday was a bad day - almost 2,000 dead. New cases were flat though. I hope the death spike is an outlier.
    It's time to pay more attention to the new cases. The deaths were new cases days or weeks ago. That figure is going to lag...

  4. Top | #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by Derec View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel View Post
    The sacrifice granny crowd wants it over as fast as possible, never mind the megadeaths.
    But there needs to be some middle ground between "sacrifice granny" crowd, which wants to open everything up as soon as possible, and "we have to remain on lockdown until Christmas".
    We would love to have "some middle ground" between the two options. The trouble is, 40% of the nation was effectively closed 3 weeks ago, and the virus is STILL spreading! The rate of spread is slowing down, however, some people seem to be not getting what the apex is and how we aren't even at the Apex yet! One fifth of US states had over 1,000 new confirmations on the virus. That is becoming a small and smaller percentage, but ultimately, percentages only matter for a chart. If 100 people had the virus anywhere, and we open back up, we'll be right back here.

    It took, what just a few people, and potentially an inept Executive Branch to spread it across the US territories (not continental, Puerto Rico, Guam, Hawaii, Alaska)?

    I sure the heck don't want to be stuck inside for several more months, and I can only imagine how much worse it is for people who don't have yards or live in the middle of urban areas. But the reality is, how do you prevent the spread of a disease that is failrly communicable (doesn't survive like measles can, but leaves a lot of people very asymptomatic) while allowing people to be around one another? Our nation lacks the PPE to pull that off. Every person who went outside would need disposable PPE until a vaccine could be developed (and of course, you'd get the asshole narcissists who would refuse vaccination).

  5. Top | #115
    Veteran Member funinspace's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elixir View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Derec View Post
    Yesterday was a bad day - almost 2,000 dead. New cases were flat though. I hope the death spike is an outlier.
    It's time to pay more attention to the new cases. The deaths were new cases days or weeks ago. That figure is going to lag...
    Yup! Unfortunately, yesterday's deaths (and worse) will with us for probably 2 weeks, based on projections to 80-90k dead by August. Though it is still too early to say, it is possible that new case growth is flattening...which would be some fresh positive news. The new case trend will be more obvious in the next 2-3 days. Unfortunately, there are half wits who have no clue about statistical data and when to not make farcical concrete declarations of trends...

  6. Top | #116
    Contributor blastula's Avatar
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    To open up, we need more testing and with contact tracing. We also need reliably accurate antibody testing, which is being developed now. That will show who has had it and so can safely be in public.
    Last edited by blastula; 04-08-2020 at 03:13 PM.

  7. Top | #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by funinspace View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Elixir View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Derec View Post
    Yesterday was a bad day - almost 2,000 dead. New cases were flat though. I hope the death spike is an outlier.
    It's time to pay more attention to the new cases. The deaths were new cases days or weeks ago. That figure is going to lag...
    Yup! Unfortunately, yesterday's deaths (and worse) will with us for probably 2 weeks, based on projections to 80-90k dead by August. Though it is still too early to say, it is possible that new case growth is flattening...which would be some fresh positive news. The new case trend will be more obvious in the next 2-3 days. Unfortunately, there are half wits who have no clue about statistical data and when to not make farcical concrete declarations of trends...
    With a Big caveat: the new case growth is only as indicative as testing is consistent across time, or even across different parts of the country when the outbreak subsides in one part but gains steam in another.
    Last edited by Jokodo; 04-08-2020 at 03:49 PM.

  8. Top | #118
    Content Thief Elixir's Avatar
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    I find it heartening that there are people here who do know what to make of raw stats. Seems to be a vanishing skill.
    Thanks, everyone.

  9. Top | #119
    Veteran Member TV and credit cards's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Derec View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel View Post
    The sacrifice granny crowd wants it over as fast as possible, never mind the megadeaths.
    But there needs to be some middle ground between "sacrifice granny" crowd, which wants to open everything up as soon as possible, and "we have to remain on lockdown until Christmas".
    There will be. Unlike China who could shut down one province, the rest of the world could not/did not do that. Come the time people's economic situation becomes so dire, when countries reach the point of civil unrest, some middle ground will have to be met. Trump's stopped clock comment about the cure being worse than the problem will be right eventually. Some may be fitted with the proper PPE and told to go back to work.





    Dwight

  10. Top | #120
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