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Thread: The World-O-Meter Thread

  1. Top | #121
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    Quote Originally Posted by blastula View Post
    To open up, we need more testing and with contact tracing. We also need reliably accurate antibody testing, which is being developed now. That will show who has had it and so can safely be in public.
    Jebus, would that even work, in application, not the theory. I can't imagine people not lying about that.

    Then we'd probably see Covid-19 parties pop up, so they could get it and then not worry about it.

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    Things are looking better. A couple of weeks ago, the curve was suggesting 1M deaths by April 26. Now it's 75K.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horatio Parker View Post
    Things are looking better. A couple of weeks ago, the curve was suggesting 1M deaths by April 26. Now it's 75K.
    What about delayed reporting?

  4. Top | #124
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jokodo View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Horatio Parker View Post
    Things are looking better. A couple of weeks ago, the curve was suggesting 1M deaths by April 26. Now it's 75K.
    What about delayed reporting?
    What about it?

  5. Top | #125
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    Question

    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Higgins View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by blastula View Post
    To open up, we need more testing and with contact tracing. We also need reliably accurate antibody testing, which is being developed now. That will show who has had it and so can safely be in public.
    Jebus, would that even work, in application, not the theory. I can't imagine people not lying about that.

    Then we'd probably see Covid-19 parties pop up, so they could get it and then not worry about it.
    The main hurdle is making an accurate enough test, the other part is easier.

    Germany To Introduce Coronavirus 'Immunity Certificates' For Recovered Public - Newsweek

    My idea is we wear collars around our neck with a covid tag.


  6. Top | #126
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    Quote Originally Posted by Horatio Parker View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Jokodo View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Horatio Parker View Post
    Things are looking better. A couple of weeks ago, the curve was suggesting 1M deaths by April 26. Now it's 75K.
    What about delayed reporting?
    What about it?
    Projecting the curve based on the last few days is unreliable if we don't know if/when/how many cases that have already been confirmed are yet to be tallied (which may get added to recent days' tallies). Do we have a good estimate of those rates of delayed reporting?

  7. Top | #127
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    Quote Originally Posted by blastula View Post
    The main hurdle is making an accurate enough test, the other part is easier.
    Watching coverage of Suffolk Cty NY where they have drive through testing.
    FORTY SIX percent testing positive!
    If there are significant numbers of false negatives I shudder to think...

  8. Top | #128
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    That's testing for the virus, which is reportedly accurate with good swabbing technique.

    Apparently, accurate antibody testing is typically harder to achieve, can get too many false positives (meaning the test will say you have had the disease when you did not).

    There's also the issue of whether and how long immunity lasts for covid.

  9. Top | #129
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    Quote Originally Posted by blastula View Post
    That's testing for the virus, which is reportedly accurate with good swabbing technique.

    Apparently, accurate antibody testing is typically harder to achieve, can get too many false positives (meaning the test will say you have had the disease when you did not).

    There's also the issue of whether and how long immunity lasts for covid.
    It'll be interesting to see what the mortality rate is from C-19 infections in Suffolk county once all the newly discovered positives are factored in...

  10. Top | #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jokodo View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Horatio Parker View Post

    What about it?
    Projecting the curve based on the last few days is unreliable if we don't know if/when/how many cases that have already been confirmed are yet to be tallied (which may get added to recent days' tallies). Do we have a good estimate of those rates of delayed reporting?
    The last week has generally been a slower incline. We are not longer at that 25 to 30+ percent daily increase. 10 percent is much better, but it is still an increase.

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