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Thread: The World-O-Meter Thread

  1. Top | #1301
    Content Thief Elixir's Avatar
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    49,396

    49,396 is the 7-day US new case average currently shown on the World-O-Meters site. Finally dipping below 50,000, if there are no more retro-adds.
    The tail on this curve is going to be epic in length.

    I am totally un-surprised that Derec has declined to put forth another prediction regarding when we will see the 49,396 number go down below 15,000.
    Maybe he was referring to Easter 2022 this whole time? My own guess is that we will be there before then, but I don't have ultra-high confidence in that guess because the nature of variants not yet seen, is impossible to predict. And it is now apparent that none of the "herd immunity" that is integral to the Happy Talk mantra, is ever going to materialize.

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    Food for thought is that despite the elderly being vaccinated, the main death vector patient, deaths right now are on par with before the Fall surge, before vaccination. They have plateau'd to 700+.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Higgins View Post
    Food for thought is that despite the elderly being vaccinated, the main death vector patient, deaths right now are on par with before the Fall surge, before vaccination. They have plateau'd to 700+.
    Apparently that's an acceptable death rate.
    I'd tend to agree, if it was completely isolated to anti-vax/mask idiots. Hopefully that day is coming.

  4. Top | #1304
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elixir View Post
    I am amazed that despite your consistent track record of never being anywhere near correct about ANYTHING related to this pandemic, here you are bloviating in contradiction to the best epidemiologists in the country.
    1. At least I am not a sore winner.
    2. I also predicted things that happened. For example I predicted cases would drop off in January after a bumpy plateau and that's what happened. Anyway, let's hear what you are predicting will happen. No herd immunity ever? More surges? What?
    3. Best epidemiologists? You quoted NY Times. Anyway, look at Israel. Less than 60% vaccinated and cases and deaths are already close to zero.

    You sound just like a boilerplate Trumpsucker. I'd love to sucker you into another bet on your superstitious Happy Talk beliefs
    Not at all. I recognize that Covid is serious, but while we are not yet at <15k, cases have dropped precipitously, which is quite happy.

    But in any case, if you want to Doom and Gloom Talk us, what do you think will happen?

    It takes a Special Kind of Stupid to think that California is a "herd". It's enough of a stretch (ask someone qualified) to construe the USA as a herd, given the openness of travel between this country and others.
    Herd immunity is a term of art. Humans are not literally herd animals. So your silly literal mindedness fails again. Look at the cases. Most counties are <10/100,000/day and places like LA metro are below 5. A combination of vaccine immunity and natural immunity, enough to achieve herd immunity, explains that well.


    Your unfamiliarity with how WoM works is another reason you should shut up and stop digging.
    I am quite familiar with how WoM works. You seem not to have been, as you evidently thought some states being a little late to report over the weekend was a big deal.

    Let's have a little fun though, since you insist on spreading your dangerous Happy Talk.
    When are we going to be down to <15k new cases per day, 7-day average?
    Go ahead, Derec - show us how much you know about epidemiology and this pandemic!
    You first. What do you think is going to happen over the next 3 months.

    (Hint: 3 unhinged posts in a row don't equal one cogent post)
    You should take that to heart.

  5. Top | #1305
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elixir View Post
    Which is to say - no, not gonna happen. Happy Talkers and anti-vax/maskers are making sure of that.
    Derec's "herd immunity" is a pipedream. California, or other small regions are not herds. "Herds" in the context of herd immunity are isolated from individuals outside of the herd.
    So, by your weird definition only the whole world can constitute herd immunity? Very convenient.
    Also, California is hardly a small region.

  6. Top | #1306
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel View Post
    1) Previous infection doesn't give a lot of protection against the variants. Only vaccination should be counted.
    2) 70% won't do it. We need 80% for herd immunity.
    Look at Israel for a counterpoint.

  7. Top | #1307
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Higgins View Post
    Derec is hanging the hat that Covid-19 immunity lasts a while. We are at the anniversary of 1 million and in a month we'll be seeing the anniversary of it getting to 2 million people. The variants out there are different from 1 year ago, so the natural immunity benefit might be less significant than hat hanging would suggest. Between now and November, every month is an annual anniversary for about 1 million more people that were confirmed as getting it.
    We have been seeing some reinfections, but so far no widespread waves of reinfection. So yes, I do think immunity lasts a while. Most likely not forever, but neither do vaccines.

    So enough with this ridiculous optimism. The anti-Covid response optimism has yet to be right about anything!
    I was right about some things. Besides, I never said we should not take this thing seriously.

  8. Top | #1308
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    Quote Originally Posted by Derec View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Higgins View Post
    Derec is hanging the hat that Covid-19 immunity lasts a while. We are at the anniversary of 1 million and in a month we'll be seeing the anniversary of it getting to 2 million people. The variants out there are different from 1 year ago, so the natural immunity benefit might be less significant than hat hanging would suggest. Between now and November, every month is an annual anniversary for about 1 million more people that were confirmed as getting it.
    We have been seeing some reinfections, but so far no widespread waves of reinfection. So yes, I do think immunity lasts a while. Most likely not forever, but neither do vaccines.

    So enough with this ridiculous optimism. The anti-Covid response optimism has yet to be right about anything!
    I was right about some things. Besides, I never said we should not take this thing seriously.
    covid-20?

  9. Top | #1309
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    Quote Originally Posted by Derec View Post
    I was right about some things.
    I can think of one thing: you correctly surmised (back in November) that once infections peaked they would decline.
    I'm surprised that you even got that right, despite it being as obvious as the wetness of water.
    Of course, you were wrong about when it would peak, how high it would peak, how fast it would decline and pretty much everything else.

    When do you think we'll see that elusive 7-day 15k/day new case average?

  10. Top | #1310
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    Quote Originally Posted by Derec View Post
    We have been seeing some reinfections, but so far no widespread waves of reinfection.
    So you repeat the same fallacy to the statement regarding why said fallacy might not carry water... IE... we are just past a year for 2 million people. Each and every month to November will be another million. That is when someone can state that reinfection isn't as much an issue... at least for a period of 12 to 18 months.. and for the variants at the time. It might be next May or January when we see the numbers go back up after the variants have changed enough (because we still have tens of thousands testing positive in the US a day). We could be one variant change from everyone that had Covid-19 being reinfected.

    So yes, I do think immunity lasts a while. Most likely not forever, but neither do vaccines.
    You have absolutely no data to support that natural immunity will be relevant. Of the confirmed cases in the US, less than 10% of them have past a year since having it.

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