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Thread: The World-O-Meter Thread

  1. Top | #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jokodo View Post
    Not a higher population density than New York City. Also, Europe has more than twice the population of the US. The EU alone (which doesn't cover all of Europe) has over 500M. What's true is that the USA has more people than any single European country.
    Yes, and the Worldometer numbers are given by country, not EU as a whole.

    New York state has 19.5m population and a peacetime death rate of 0.8% per year. By my math, that works out as about 430 deaths on an average day. Yesterday, New York recorded 372 COVID-19 deaths, most of them in NYC. We can safely assume that the overall death rate has already at least doubled due to COVID-19 there, and the numbers are still rising relentlessly.
    I think some "peacetime" deaths decreased due to social distancing. Traffic fatalities for one, and other accidental deaths. Murders probably too. Then there is the fact that since COVID deaths are disproportionally old and ill, some of the COVID dead would have been dead soon anyway.

    I'm afraid when New York peaks, Wuhan and Milan during their respective peaks will look like promising destinations for a weekend trip. Scary.
    I hope you are wrong on that. I think NY reacted better than Lombardy, so I definitely have hope NY will not be nearly as bad.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Derec View Post
    Yes, and the Worldometer numbers are given by country, not EU as a whole.


    I think some "peacetime" deaths decreased due to social distancing. Traffic fatalities for one, and other accidental deaths. Murders probably too. Then there is the fact that since COVID deaths are disproportionally old and ill, some of the COVID dead would have been dead soon anyway.

    I'm afraid when New York peaks, Wuhan and Milan during their respective peaks will look like promising destinations for a weekend trip. Scary.
    I hope you are wrong on that. I think NY reacted better than Lombardy, so I definitely have hope NY will not be nearly as bad.
    Well I hope so too, I'm just not seeing it.

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    Content Thief Elixir's Avatar
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    04-01



    Lots of new records of course. Over 5k deaths now, ramped up to a thousand a day and rising. Now at 15 deaths/million population. Early March I was hoping we would top out at around 100/m but that's now a pipe dream. We'll be lucky if we end up below 500/m and it will probably be several times that. The only good news is that Trump now seems dimly aware of the fact at least hundreds of thousands of people are going to die, and is preparing to give himself a big old attaboy when that happens.

    The more this administration pats itself on the back without doing anything substantial, the worse the outlook for this country. Every day Fauci paints the rosiest picture his conscience will allow, Cheato gives lip service to that outlook and proceeds to do whatever he thinks best serves his self interest for the next day. Almost as if he thinks he can just change his story any time he wants, say "I didn't say that" when challenged, and his trumpsuckers will believe it.

    Oh, right.... never mind.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Derec View Post
    Seriously dude - you do yourself no favors by sounding like Half-Whatever.
    Since I never said that this thing will be over by April, I definitely do not sound like him.
    Just because I don't subscribe to "we are all doomed" chicken little shit does not mean I am downplaying the seriousness of the situation.
    Guess I should apologize for that snark. I know you're not in his ...uh, ballpark. But the sensible alternative to his idiocy is not, IMHO, to maintain a rhetorical bias toward an optimal outcome that becomes worse looking every day, but to raise the alarm that seemingly has yet to be heard in the darkest corners of American stupidity.
    Without universal compliance with distancing and other precautions, we're just pushing the recovery horizon back further and further. That applies to both the health recovery and the economic recovery.
    So... there's my backhanded apology/excuse - sorry.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Elixir View Post
    Lots of new records of course. Over 5k deaths now, ramped up to a thousand a day and rising. Now at 15 deaths/million population.
    Things will keep rising. Cumulative cases and cumulative deaths can't go down, by definition.
    What is important is to look at daily numbers. They are still increasing, but the rate of increase seems to be slowing. That is good news.

    Early March I was hoping we would top out at around 100/m but that's now a pipe dream. We'll be lucky if we end up below 500/m and it will probably be several times that. The only good news is that Trump now seems dimly aware of the fact at least hundreds of thousands of people are going to die, and is preparing to give himself a big old attaboy when that happens.
    327k deaths would be 1000/million, or 0.1% of the population. That would not be the worst possible outcome, if it's the grand total, although of course we could have done better with more competent leadership. Unfortunately, I am not terribly impressed with Biden either. The biggest Democratic field probably ever, and this is what we end up with to challenge Trump? Biden really should have run in 2016. He was 4 years younger and he could have won where Hillary lost. And he would have been orders of magnitude more competent in this crisis, even if only because he would have delegated to a much better team.
    But now? Hopelessly over the hill.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Elixir View Post
    Guess I should apologize for that snark.
    I think you should.

    But the sensible alternative to his idiocy is not, IMHO, to maintain a rhetorical bias toward an optimal outcome that becomes worse looking every day, but to raise the alarm that seemingly has yet to be heard in the darkest corners of American stupidity.
    Alarm needed to be raised. And while it's too much to expect any alarm will be hard in the darkest corners of American stupidity (some idiotic Pennsylvania pastor wants to organize a "Christian Woodstock" for Easter) being too fatalistic and not acknowledging that social distancing measures are showing some success is not the right alternative either.

    Without universal compliance with distancing and other precautions, we're just pushing the recovery horizon back further and further. That applies to both the health recovery and the economic recovery.
    So... there's my backhanded apology/excuse - sorry.
    Acknowledging that social distancing measures are working is not a call to relax them now or not to comply. Quite the opposite. And I think you are missing the point. The social distancing is slowing the recovery. Not doing anything would mean quicker recovery but many would needlessly die because the health system would be overwhelmed several times over. Social distancing is pushing the peak back and by doing that making the peak less tall. Also, by delaying the peak, it buys time to procure more equipment, testing and perhaps even have better treatment options.

  7. Top | #27
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    I'll accept the keep it upbeat when young people actually do stay at home, don't in-person party, and take things as seriously. You know, as we did during vietnam era when when we actually shuffled off to Canada to reduce cannon fodder supply.

    Until then we need keep wearing disaster hair shirts to prevent young people from not having access to grandparents.

    Young scare easily yano. I remember. I was one once.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Elixir View Post


    Lots of new records of course. Over 5k deaths now, ramped up to a thousand a day and rising. Now at 15 deaths/million population. Early March I was hoping we would top out at around 100/m but that's now a pipe dream. We'll be lucky if we end up below 500/m and it will probably be several times that. The only good news is that Trump now seems dimly aware of the fact at least hundreds of thousands of people are going to die, and is preparing to give himself a big old attaboy when that happens.

    The more this administration pats itself on the back without doing anything substantial, the worse the outlook for this country. Every day Fauci paints the rosiest picture his conscience will allow, Cheato gives lip service to that outlook and proceeds to do whatever he thinks best serves his self interest for the next day. Almost as if he thinks he can just change his story any time he wants, say "I didn't say that" when challenged, and his trumpsuckers will believe it.

    Oh, right.... never mind.
    Also more confirmed cases now than the second and third place combined.

    Yes, I know, the US population is also quite a bit larger than Italy's and Spain's combined. I wonder how much longer that excuse will work.
    Last edited by Jokodo; 04-02-2020 at 08:15 AM. Reason: original misstated "more deaths" instead of "more cases"

  9. Top | #29
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    By the way, New York recorded 505 new deaths yesterday, up from 372 the day before, a 35% increase. Per capita, that's still a lower rate than Lombardy (394 deaths - they seem to have plateaued - to 10 million people), but at this rate, New York will catch up with Lombardy even on a per capita basis tomorrow, if not today.

    Of course, there's strong evidence that the deaths in Lombardy are massively underreported. We (I at least) don't know that this is also true in New York, but neither that it isn't.
    Last edited by Jokodo; 04-02-2020 at 08:32 AM.

  10. Top | #30
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    Derec is right to look at the per capita numbers; they are the best predictor of what's in store for the US. Italy is now at 218 deaths/million. Italy is being touted as the most reliable analog to what's happening in the US, so there is no reason to believe that the US is going to top out anywhere below where they end up. When we get to 218/m it will reflect some 72,000 deaths.
    The good news is that the daily reported death tally in Italy, while still piling up, looks like it might be starting to level out. But there's still no knowing where it stops. And no great confidence that all the deaths related to COVFEFE-19 are being reported as such.

    I strongly disagree that alarms don't need to be raised, or that raising alarms is a totally futile exercise. Florida just instituted a stay-at-home order, despite the fact that DeSantis is trumpsucking liar and a conservotard lowlife. Even the Republican troglodytes eventually bow to the pressure applied by the stench of death, just as Trump did - after more than two months of denial that will cost tens or hundreds of thousands of lives.

    Trump is guilty of negligent homicide on a grand scale, dereliction of duty and treason. The death penalty would be too good for him.
    Last edited by Elixir; 04-02-2020 at 02:04 PM.

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