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Thread: Wisconsin: Harbinger of Idiocy

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    Wisconsin: Harbinger of Idiocy

    Updated 5/28. Prior to 5/13 there was a downward trend in the 7-day trailing average number of daily new cases.
    Then, on 5/13 the (Republican) Wisconsin Supreme Court disallowed the social distancing measures imposed by the (Dem) Governor.
    People immediately went out and partied like there was no tomorrow. Since that joyous day there has been a 54% increase.
    Now some of those revelers will be looking at the very real spectre of no tomorrow.
    All thanks to (more) Republican idiocy. "Open up the economy!" they said. "It'll be fun!", they said.


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    Veteran Member prideandfall's Avatar
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    this is why i find the narrative that the trump admin's response to the pandemic was a failure, or that any other outcome was possible in the US.
    my wife tried to argue that if they'd only issued a national stay at home order 2 weeks earlier, X number of cases would have been avoided... but the truth is that if you looking at the behaviors, even in the midst of active infections, people were denying the efficacy of any kind of collective response, and chomping at the bit to defy governmental orders and act like nothing was happening.

    if mandatory government enforced shutdowns of society are the only thing stopping rampant infection rates, because people refuse to follow guidelines on their own, then i start to question whether or not you can really blame 'the government' for what's happening.

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    Quote Originally Posted by prideandfall View Post
    this is why i find the narrative that the trump admin's response to the pandemic was a failure, or that any other outcome was possible in the US.
    my wife tried to argue that if they'd only issued a national stay at home order 2 weeks earlier, X number of cases would have been avoided... but the truth is that if you looking at the behaviors, even in the midst of active infections, people were denying the efficacy of any kind of collective response, and chomping at the bit to defy governmental orders and act like nothing was happening.

    if mandatory government enforced shutdowns of society are the only thing stopping rampant infection rates, because people refuse to follow guidelines on their own, then i start to question whether or not you can really blame 'the government' for what's happening.
    If I understand you correctly, I believe that's a false dichotomy. If you have 100 contagious people and you quarantine them on day 1 of being infected, let's say, then no matter what percentage may break that quarantine subsequently, you've already managed to prevent an exponentially larger number of secondary infections as compared to if that quarantine went into effect on day 14 of being infected.

    Iow, your wife is correct; it's the timing of the quarantine vs the amount of time the infected people who need to be quarantined have been allowed to roam around infecting people.

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    Veteran Member prideandfall's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Koyaanisqatsi View Post
    If you have 100 contagious people and you quarantine them on day 1 of being infected, let's say, then no matter what percentage may break that quarantine subsequently, you've already managed to prevent an exponentially larger number of secondary infections as compared to if that quarantine went into effect on day 14 of being infected.
    on paper, yes. but in reality that's a logistical impossibility - there's no way you pick just the infected people and quarantine them.
    in a situation like in the US if you just become aware that a highly contagious virus has entered the physical space of the continental land mass and a significant portion of your population refuses to isolate themselves and the virus gets within that segment of the population, there's nothing you can do to stop it.

    i just tried googling this but i couldn't find any info, maybe my search terms are wrong... what is the current infection rate within the US population that is strictly adhering to self-quarantine? how many people who don't go out at all except when absolutely necessary and who have highly limited contact with the outside world have become infected?
    i could be wrong here and making a completely baseless assumption, but logic tells me that infection rates are happening within groups that aren't following self-quarantine in the first place.

    if the federal government had started telling people to not go to work and not go out and lock themselves in their homes 3-6 weeks earlier than actually happened... well, even when the news was reporting left and right that infection rates were skyrocketing in the US you had millions of people refusing to do it. if you did it 2 months earlier before there was widespread outbreak, do you really think more people would have gone along with it?
    i suspect if you'd done it before the news cycle churned up herd panic, you'd simply have more of the anti-government reactionaries going out of their way to break quarantine best practices out of spite.

    assuming the infection rates are primarily within the segments of the population that are NOT self isolating in the first place and would not self isolate under any circumstances, why is the assumption that earlier public self isolation would have made any difference, if these people weren't going to do it anyways?

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    Wisconsin: Harbinger of Idiocy

    Quote Originally Posted by prideandfall View Post
    this is why i find the narrative that the trump admin's response to the pandemic was a failure, or that any other outcome was possible in the US.
    my wife tried to argue that if they'd only issued a national stay at home order 2 weeks earlier, X number of cases would have been avoided... but the truth is that if you looking at the behaviors, even in the midst of active infections, people were denying the efficacy of any kind of collective response, and chomping at the bit to defy governmental orders and act like nothing was happening.

    if mandatory government enforced shutdowns of society are the only thing stopping rampant infection rates, because people refuse to follow guidelines on their own, then i start to question whether or not you can really blame 'the government' for what's happening.
    Except if you contain it before it has spread, you have a better chance at eliminating it, for a bit. The reported numbers are only confirmed and the actual cases must be 3x to 10x higher. So it has spread too far to be contained.

    Kind of like Iraq, the clock is set when you start, you have until X to make things right, after that, you dun fucked up.

    One thing I’d question is how long the lag is before you notice infections. The dumbass fuckwads were venturing out demanding freedom before this.

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    Veteran Member prideandfall's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Higgins View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by prideandfall View Post
    this is why i find the narrative that the trump admin's response to the pandemic was a failure, or that any other outcome was possible in the US.
    my wife tried to argue that if they'd only issued a national stay at home order 2 weeks earlier, X number of cases would have been avoided... but the truth is that if you looking at the behaviors, even in the midst of active infections, people were denying the efficacy of any kind of collective response, and chomping at the bit to defy governmental orders and act like nothing was happening.

    if mandatory government enforced shutdowns of society are the only thing stopping rampant infection rates, because people refuse to follow guidelines on their own, then i start to question whether or not you can really blame 'the government' for what's happening.
    Except if you contain it before it has spread, you have a better chance at eliminating it, for a bit. The reported numbers are only confirmed and the actual cases must be 3x to 10x higher. So it has spread too far to be contained.

    Kind of like Iraq, the clock is set when you start, you have until X to make things right, after that, you dun fucked up.

    One thing I’d question is how long the lag is before you notice infections. The dumbass fuckwads were venturing out demanding freedom before this.
    i don't want to simply repeat myself to the post i just made to koyaa, but you kind of hit directly on my point - it's not that i don't understand how limiting exposure works to prevent the spread of infections or that i'm suggesting if the whole country had gone hermit in early january that the numbers wouldn't be different... i'm saying that no matter when you called for a national lockdown and no matter how you implemented it, in the US a sizable portion of the population would not only ignore the orders but would act directly in opposition to it out of spite.
    therefore, my contention is that 'containing it before it spread' was never an option in the US in the first place, so acting like it WAS an option and then trying to blame the government for not doing it seems kind of stupid to me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by prideandfall View Post
    this is why i find the narrative that the trump admin's response to the pandemic was a failure, or that any other outcome was possible in the US.
    my wife tried to argue that if they'd only issued a national stay at home order 2 weeks earlier, X number of cases would have been avoided... but the truth is that if you looking at the behaviors, even in the midst of active infections, people were denying the efficacy of any kind of collective response, and chomping at the bit to defy governmental orders and act like nothing was happening.

    if mandatory government enforced shutdowns of society are the only thing stopping rampant infection rates, because people refuse to follow guidelines on their own, then i start to question whether or not you can really blame 'the government' for what's happening.
    I have maintained this all along, while the Trump administration is clearly woefully inept, I just don't think it is realistic to expect the American population to do something like what is being done in, say, Korea.

    To put it another way, I don't know how much room there is for any administration, even the best possibly prepared ones, given the American populace. I mean, people are shooting each other over being asked to wear a mask in a store.

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    Elder Contributor barbos's Avatar
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    Yeah, other democratic countries are not doing that well. So it's doubtful that Obama would have done much better than president Deplorable.

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    Quote Originally Posted by J842P View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by prideandfall View Post
    this is why i find the narrative that the trump admin's response to the pandemic was a failure, or that any other outcome was possible in the US.
    my wife tried to argue that if they'd only issued a national stay at home order 2 weeks earlier, X number of cases would have been avoided... but the truth is that if you looking at the behaviors, even in the midst of active infections, people were denying the efficacy of any kind of collective response, and chomping at the bit to defy governmental orders and act like nothing was happening.

    if mandatory government enforced shutdowns of society are the only thing stopping rampant infection rates, because people refuse to follow guidelines on their own, then i start to question whether or not you can really blame 'the government' for what's happening.
    I have maintained this all along, while the Trump administration is clearly woefully inept, I just don't think it is realistic to expect the American population to do something like what is being done in, say, Korea.

    To put it another way, I don't know how much room there is for any administration, even the best possibly prepared ones, given the American populace. I mean, people are shooting each other over being asked to wear a mask in a store.
    Here are all the reasons why you CAN say Obama (or any other sane president) would do better
    • Trump is deliberately and repeatedly undermining the messages on how to stay safe
    • Trump is actively encouraging disobedience
    • Trump is muzzling the scientists who people should hear
    • Trump is not a kind person and cannot get people's cooperation on anything peaceful
    • Trump is playing games with equipment and PPE
    • Trump is deliberately and repeatedly undermining state efforts to help people stay safe



    Other Democratic countries are doing better than the USA

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    Quote Originally Posted by prideandfall View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Higgins View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by prideandfall View Post
    this is why i find the narrative that the trump admin's response to the pandemic was a failure, or that any other outcome was possible in the US.
    my wife tried to argue that if they'd only issued a national stay at home order 2 weeks earlier, X number of cases would have been avoided... but the truth is that if you looking at the behaviors, even in the midst of active infections, people were denying the efficacy of any kind of collective response, and chomping at the bit to defy governmental orders and act like nothing was happening.

    if mandatory government enforced shutdowns of society are the only thing stopping rampant infection rates, because people refuse to follow guidelines on their own, then i start to question whether or not you can really blame 'the government' for what's happening.
    Except if you contain it before it has spread, you have a better chance at eliminating it, for a bit. The reported numbers are only confirmed and the actual cases must be 3x to 10x higher. So it has spread too far to be contained.

    Kind of like Iraq, the clock is set when you start, you have until X to make things right, after that, you dun fucked up.

    One thing I’d question is how long the lag is before you notice infections. The dumbass fuckwads were venturing out demanding freedom before this.
    i don't want to simply repeat myself to the post i just made to koyaa, but you kind of hit directly on my point - it's not that i don't understand how limiting exposure works to prevent the spread of infections or that i'm suggesting if the whole country had gone hermit in early january that the numbers wouldn't be different... i'm saying that no matter when you called for a national lockdown and no matter how you implemented it, in the US a sizable portion of the population would not only ignore the orders but would act directly in opposition to it out of spite.
    therefore, my contention is that 'containing it before it spread' was never an option in the US in the first place, so acting like it WAS an option and then trying to blame the government for not doing it seems kind of stupid to me.
    It is hard to predict. On one hand we have lots of deaths in Europe and "Trump's plan" has quelled cases in the US and saved tens of thousands of lies. He is vindicated as the death toll and cases in non-NYC areas are negligible. So that could help press on with that sort of plan. On the other hand, the lack of cases is mistaken for meaning the early shutdown wasn't needed at all and America was safe because we have oceans to both sides, so the shutdown was dumb, right-wingers revolt.

    It could go either way.

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