# Thread: At what point do coincidences stop being coincidences?

1. Ah the rubber meets the road analogy.

2. Originally Posted by Sarpedon
Is there an accepted method to determine when it is sound to think that coincidences aren't random? I'm talking in every day life, where things happen without lab conditions, and the mind makes connections between things in a free form way. We all know the mind loves to make connections, but is there a point where one can say, "aha! there is some unseen link?" because sometimes there is, isn't there?
As soon as one can accurately predict it.

3. Originally Posted by Tharmas
Originally Posted by bilby
Originally Posted by fromderinside
Probability can be a harsh mistress. Something associated can be just coincidental.
You only said that because it's a full moon.
Well, I heard a newscaster on one of the local stations a while back explain that of course the moon affects us. It causes the tides, she said, and we're 98% water. You can't argue with logic like that.
She is absolutely right, except that last 2% actually represents 85% of what controls us. So while the moon effects us because we are 98% water (despite the fact the moon is always running around the Earth, regardless of how much reflected light we see), it actually only counts for about 15% of our actions.

4. Originally Posted by Jimmy Higgins
Originally Posted by Tharmas

Well, I heard a newscaster on one of the local stations a while back explain that of course the moon affects us. It causes the tides, she said, and we're 98% water. You can't argue with logic like that.
She is absolutely right, except that last 2% actually represents 85% of what controls us. So while the moon effects us because we are 98% water (despite the fact the moon is always running around the Earth, regardless of how much reflected light we see), it actually only counts for about 15% of our actions.
More people are attacked by lions the night after the full moon than on any other day in the lunar month. This is a real and measurable effect; And it has a reasonable explanation. Can you guess why this should be the case?

5. Originally Posted by bilby
Originally Posted by Jimmy Higgins
Originally Posted by Tharmas

Well, I heard a newscaster on one of the local stations a while back explain that of course the moon affects us. It causes the tides, she said, and we're 98% water. You can't argue with logic like that.
She is absolutely right, except that last 2% actually represents 85% of what controls us. So while the moon effects us because we are 98% water (despite the fact the moon is always running around the Earth, regardless of how much reflected light we see), it actually only counts for about 15% of our actions.
More people are attacked by lions the night after the full moon than on any other day in the lunar month. This is a real and measurable effect; And it has a reasonable explanation. Can you guess why this should be the case?
Lions are 99% water and the last percent doesn't do anything. So lions are really nothing more than the Moon's bitches.

6. More lions prefer Colgate toothpaste after a meal and Listerine for bad breath than other brands..

How do you explain that?

Correlation is not causation.

I had several relatives who were firefighters. One swaore that on events like a full moon things got worse, but statistics has never borne that out.

In pop culture the Bermuda Triangle is thought to have a high percentage of lost planes . That too is not brome out. Here in the PNW planes disappear without a trace. Sometimes wreckage is found decades later.

I did enough data analysis to know how easy it is to see patterns and connections where there is none.

As to lions, are more people about after a full moon? What are the data sources?

There is a business astrologer I heard on the radio who claims plant ray and astrological alignments correlate to stock markets and business. He actually has clients.

7. They don't.

So, I'm really crazy. Or at least that's what I tell people. Maybe it's true. I am one to do strange rituals under the moon, and I am about 85% effective give or take on output. I call it a "causal adjacency". Something that is not causal, but may either have some impact through the human element of belief or through some other spookiness that will, by the wise, still be chalked up to placebo.

But even I can recognize that despite doing a ritual to get some lightning-struck copper and having a whopper of a storm you were unaware of being on the way taking down the ground cables on the pole behind your house, to be left in the alley by the maintenance crew, it's still a coincidence.
It's WILD coincidence, sure, but a coincidence nonetheless. It's a hell of a story though, and one I wouldn't have if I'd just bought some wire online.

The point at which it stops being coincidence is when it is repeatable. The thing about wild coincidences is that they happen all the time. They aren't repeatable but, there will always be another. It's almost like the wild coincidence is the depression in the road and the meaning and specialness is us, the puddle of water sitting in it. They will happen, but they will always be unique to us.

The real question is whether y'all allow a sense of wonder and magic when the wild coincidences that are bound to happen do? Do you sit out on the perch of your consciousness eagerly awaiting the arrival of the new and the strange so that it can be a part of your story?

That's one of the things that is "magic": making coincidence useful and fun.

8. Ask yourself "what are consequences of adding ring of Saturn statistics to any multiple correlation?"

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