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Thread: 2020 Election Results

  1. Top | #1141
    Elder Contributor Keith&Co.'s Avatar
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    to cancel the program to buy newer planes to replace the OC-135s.[/B] That's eliminating the option of replacing the aircraft with more modern variants as well.
    Well, at worst it delays the option. Doesn't eliminate it.
    However far the program got, that contractor still has all the paperwork, designs, cost estimates. They just need to put new dates on the schedules, double the prices, bop right along. All they need is a go from the appropriate program office.
    Or, maybe there was a plan for satellites when he cancelled the program?

  2. Top | #1142
    Administrator lpetrich's Avatar
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    Opinion | It Wasn't Ideology That Sank House Democrats. It Was Bad Strategy. - POLITICO - "Poor decisions from the national party left Democratic candidates in swing districts unable to hold their own."
    It was weak strategy, based on bad polling information and poor decisions from the national party that left Democratic candidates in swing districts—and candidates of color in particular—unable to hold their own in the face of a massive, and massively underestimated, Republican voter surge. The fact is: If you’re going to win a campaign, you’ve got to campaign, which means getting in front of voters and meeting them where they are. And that was the one thing that Democrats running for Congress could not do this year, upon orders from the party’s campaign arm in Washington.
    Then about the disproportionate power of the DCCC and the DNC, because of all the money that they have.
    Their data was bad—the result of polling that vastly underestimated how many Republicans would turn out to vote and how their ever-strengthening fidelity to President Donald Trump would cause them to back GOP candidates all the way down the ticket. Their understanding of very specific voter beliefs in very different local districts was even worse—which is why Hispanic voters, lumped together into a non-differentiated, assumedly pro-immigration and anti-Trump bloc, provided the party with such disastrous surprises in South Florida and border areas of Texas. While the party isn’t solely to blame for using bad data, it should have known better than to use polls as the main indicator of future success and voter preferences. Indeed, 2016 had offered ample warning that polling was unreliable.

    And the messaging dictates coming from Washington—delivered to all the congressional campaigns in conference calls and memos and advertising guidance from consultants—frequently missed their mark. Democratic campaigns we endorsed and were in frequent communication with were told to hit the Republicans hard for their poor handling of the deadly coronavirus epidemic. Yet swing voters didn’t view their local GOP candidates or officials as complicit in the Russian roulette that the Trump White House had played around Covid. And advice on conference calls we sat in on that encouraged candidates to run TV ads saying they were “angry,” “fed up” and “frustrated,” was laughably ill-suited for candidates of color—especially Black women—running in nearly all-white districts.

    Guidance from Washington broadly understood by campaigns as a ban on in-person canvassing was the most damaging decision of all—an error that compounded all the others.
    Especially when they could have worked out good ways of COVID-19-safe in-person canvassing.
    Again, based on our experience working with congressional campaigns, meeting a congressional candidate on-screen just doesn’t work—and it especially doesn’t work for candidates of color, who are seen as “the Black candidate” or “the Hispanic candidate” or “that Asian candidate” when they’re seen on TV, but simply become “the candidate” when encountered in person.

  3. Top | #1143
    Administrator lpetrich's Avatar
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    Which States Have Certified Presidential Vote Totals - The New York Times - currently 102 out of 306 for Biden, 160 out of 232 for Trump.

    Updates: Tracking The Unresolved 2020 Races | FiveThirtyEight

    listing CA-21, CA-25, IA-04, and NY-22.

    Some of these races are close enough to provoke extended litigation, something that has happened in some previous ones.

    The WaPo adds NY-02, NY-11, and NY-21 to 538's list, and the NYT adds NY-01 to the WaPo's list.


    What Blue And Red ‘Shifts’ Looked Like In Every State | FiveThirtyEight - what the count looked like in each state as the count proceeded.

    Republicans Are On Track To Take Back The House In 2022 | FiveThirtyEight
    Since the end of WWII, the President's party loses an average of 27 seats in the House in the midterm elections, though that loss varies widely, from near 0 to more then 60 seats. In one case the loss was negative: in George Bush II's first term, the Republican Party gained around 5 seats.

    Both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama have a pattern of a big loss followed by a small loss. Could the Dems' big loss this year lead to a small loss in 2022?

    But if Joe Biden cancels some student debt and otherwise does things that puts money in people's pockets, that could get him some House seats. The Senate Republicans will likely fight it tooth and nail, because it won't be to their credit.

  4. Top | #1144
    Administrator lpetrich's Avatar
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    Republicans Won Almost Every Election Where Redistricting Was At Stake | FiveThirtyEight
    "As the map below shows, Republicans are set to control the redistricting of 188 congressional seats — or 43 percent of the entire House of Representatives. By contrast, Democrats will control the redistricting of, at most, 73 seats, or 17 percent."

    So the Republicans will be able to keep themselves in power by gerrymandering yet again.

    Could Social Alienation Among Some Trump Supporters Help Explain Why Polls Underestimated Trump Again? | FiveThirtyEight - Trump doing well among hard-to-poll people.

    What We Know About How White and Latino Americans Voted In 2020 | FiveThirtyEight - "The urban-rural and education divides are stronger than they were in 2016."
    One important factor to keep in mind here — which is partially why some of these shifts toward Trump seem so pronounced — is that Trump did really poorly with Latino voters in 2016. According to pre-election surveys, he won just 18 percent of Latino voters in 2016 but 27 percent this year, putting him back in the territory of other recent Republican presidential nominees.

    Additionally, part of what we’re seeing here isn’t necessarily something unique to Latino voters at all, but an extension of America’s growing urban-rural divide. As Bernard Fraga, a political science professor at Emory University who studies racial and ethnic politics, told us, “Biden was never expected to make gains in rural populations and he didn’t really try. … So if Trump is the candidate that people in rural America identify with more, that’s going to work with Latinos just like it works with other groups.”
    So Hispanics are becoming more like gringo Americans, with their urban-rural split.
    One notable exception to this is Miami-Dade, which is a largely urban area. But Sergio Garcia-Rios, a professor of political science at Cornell University who studies Latino identity, pointed out that Trump may have helped improve his standing among Latinos there by recognizing their diversity and focusing on a few groups where he had the potential to make inroads — like Cubans in South Florida. The Trump campaign made outreach to Cuban voters a priority early on, emphasizing Trump’s tough record on Cuba while also drumming up the (inaccurate) idea that Biden was a “Trojan horse” bringing socialism to the U.S. It’s a message designed especially for voters who trace their roots to Cuba and other countries with histories of socialist dictatorships. And that tack seemed to pay off, especially in Miami-Dade County, where more than half of the Hispanic population is of Cuban origin. Trump still lost the county, but this time just by 7 points after losing it by 29 points in 2016. He made substantial gains across the whole county, but especially in areas heavily populated by Cuban Americans.
    Even though Cubans have long benefited from relocation assistance.

  5. Top | #1145
    Administrator lpetrich's Avatar
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    More Republicans Distrust This Year’s Election Results Than Democrats After 2016 | FiveThirtyEight - what a bunch of sore losers.
    This, of course, isn’t the first time Trump has tried to sow doubt in the democratic process. Before and after the 2016 election, Trump falsely claimed that millions of undocumented immigrants were going to vote in the election, or that “people that have died 10 years ago are still voting,” even though there was never any evidence that these claims were true. And, as was the case ahead of the 2016 election, Republicans once again were more likely than Democrats to believe these fraudulent claims as they went to the polls.

    The key difference between now and 2016, though, is that after the election, a majority of Republicans are still unwilling to accept the result. That wasn’t true of Democrats in 2016.
    I marvel when I see something like this, because many of them claim to oppose claiming victimhood. Almost as if they believe that only they have a right to claim victimhood.

    Americans Were Primed To Believe The Current Onslaught Of Disinformation | FiveThirtyEight
    It started with a drizzle but quickly turned into a downpour: Disinformation about the election, and in particular unfounded claims of election fraud, has flooded the internet over the past week. And Americans were primed to believe it.

    Dozens of false claims shared on social media have kept fact-checkers busy and partisans energized. Pro-Trump Facebook groups that dispute the election results have attracted tens of thousands of users and become a lively marketplace for exchanging disinformation (until the social media network shuts them down). And President Trump’s supporters have shown up in person as well to rail against what they perceive to be election fraud.
    More and more victimhood.

  6. Top | #1146
    Administrator lpetrich's Avatar
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    The Birther Myth Stuck Around For Years. The Election Fraud Myth Might Too. | FiveThirtyEight
    A significant number of Americans currently believe the 2020 election was stolen, even though it wasn’t. A Reuters/Ipsos poll last week showed 52 percent of Republicans believe President Trump “rightfully won” the election. But the only “evidence” of election fraud has been widely debunked.
    Because it makes right-wingers seem like victims, just like birtherism.


    How A Record Number Of Republican Women Will — And Won’t — Change Congress | FiveThirtyEight

    Though they two parties had approximately equal numbers of women in the 101th Congress (1989 - 1991, roughly 15 each), the Democrats were to get a much larger increase in female representation than the Republicans.
    • 116th Congress (elected 2018): 127 = D 105, R 22
    • 117th Congress (elected 2020): 142 = D 107, R 35 (a little bit incomplete)

    Why do Democrats do much better than Republicans at electing women? Author Meredith Conroy has some theories. More women are Democrats. Democratic women are better supported for runs for office than Republican ones. Democrats tend to be more supportive than Republicans of women in public office. "But this cycle, despite a rocky start, Republicans invested early in Republican women, as I wrote this summer."

    MC then listed some Republican women who defeated some Democratic ones: FL-27 Maria Elvira Salazar beating Donna Shalala, OK-05 Stephanie Bice defeating Kendra Horn, NM-02 Yvette Herrell beating Xochitl Torres Small, and IA-01 Ashley Hinson beating Abby Finkenauer.
    Historically, women in both parties (but especially Republicans) have been recruited to run as “sacrificial lambs” in races that the party knew it couldn’t win. And as the chart above shows, that was true this year as well. But many GOP women also ran in more competitive places, and most of them won.
    As to what that might mean for Congress,
    But while many people believe that women in political leadership positions are more compassionate and better at building compromise, it’s a relatively open question whether that actually happens in Congress. Women in Congress report spending more time engaging in across-party coalitions than men, and studies suggest that women in Congress are more collegial, but their legislative activity (such as cosponsoring bills) is actually pretty similar to men’s. It seems clear that the growing partisan divide in the U.S. has created fairly strong disincentives for engaging in bipartisan compromise for men — and women. So will electing more women to Congress help curb the polarization between the two parties?
    MC thinks that it's unlikely.
    Take the studies that have found that, women in both parties tend to prioritize issues related to women, children and families once in office. These areas could be a real opportunity for bipartisanship, but an analysis of Senate bill cosponsorship found that these issues are no longer core to the Republican Party and, as a result, Republican women in the Senate did not really advocate for these policies, while Democratic women did.

  7. Top | #1147
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    Quote Originally Posted by lpetrich View Post
    Opinion | It Wasn't Ideology That Sank House Democrats. It Was Bad Strategy. - POLITICO - "Poor decisions from the national party left Democratic candidates in swing districts unable to hold their own."

    Then about the disproportionate power of the DCCC and the DNC, because of all the money that they have.

    Especially when they could have worked out good ways of COVID-19-safe in-person canvassing.
    Again, based on our experience working with congressional campaigns, meeting a congressional candidate on-screen just doesn’t work—and it especially doesn’t work for candidates of color, who are seen as “the Black candidate” or “the Hispanic candidate” or “that Asian candidate” when they’re seen on TV, but simply become “the candidate” when encountered in person.
    This makes me very very sad. What a missed opportunity. Moscow Mitch will still be in control. If the D's couldn't get a landslide with these conditions, what chance will they have in 2022? Especially with more gerrymandering (pointed out in a following post); even the Census was deliberately subverted. Scotus now has a 6-3 majority of Evil-Doers. Even if (or especially if?) the Trump Crime family is imprisoned, expect thugs and dolts wearing MAGA hats to dominate elections for the rest of the decade.

    So many were focused on just the Presidency, and are pouring champagne in glee. I think such optimism is misplaced. It sounds like flawed DNC priorities were a big part of this electoral failure.

  8. Top | #1148
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    Quote Originally Posted by Treedbear View Post

    Careful what you ask for dude: The demise of the Open Skies Treaty part of an unfortunate pattern


    These planes are used to gather info that the US shares with the EU and NATO and losing them limits their ability to track what moves Russia is making in the east.

    And not only that: https://crooksandliars.com/2020/11/m...anes-destroyed
    "A senior U.S. official said the planes are being designated as 'excess defense articles.' The official said, quote, 'We've started liquidating the equipment.' The senior U.S. official insisted that the goal in disposing of the OC-135s is not to tie the hands of the incoming Biden administration. That said, quote, 'The move follows a decision in July by then-Defense Secretary Mark Esper to cancel the program to buy newer planes to replace the OC-135s. That's eliminating the option of replacing the aircraft with more modern variants as well.
    There's a parable somewhere in the Dead Sea Scrolls about how the devil reacts when being evicted from your house, and how he goes about smashing everything he touches. Now I'm not a believer in such things, but they do reflect human nature. It's really hard to ignore the idea that Putin is behind this and he's probably given a todo list to Donny that needs to happen chop-chop.
    Well Biden shuld be able to fund the new planes pretty quickly, especially if the contracts go to Red States. Repugs do love military spending.

  9. Top | #1149
    Veteran Member Treedbear's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jab View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Treedbear View Post

    Careful what you ask for dude: The demise of the Open Skies Treaty part of an unfortunate pattern


    These planes are used to gather info that the US shares with the EU and NATO and losing them limits their ability to track what moves Russia is making in the east.

    And not only that: https://crooksandliars.com/2020/11/m...anes-destroyed
    "A senior U.S. official said the planes are being designated as 'excess defense articles.' The official said, quote, 'We've started liquidating the equipment.' The senior U.S. official insisted that the goal in disposing of the OC-135s is not to tie the hands of the incoming Biden administration. That said, quote, 'The move follows a decision in July by then-Defense Secretary Mark Esper to cancel the program to buy newer planes to replace the OC-135s. That's eliminating the option of replacing the aircraft with more modern variants as well.
    There's a parable somewhere in the Dead Sea Scrolls about how the devil reacts when being evicted from your house, and how he goes about smashing everything he touches. Now I'm not a believer in such things, but they do reflect human nature. It's really hard to ignore the idea that Putin is behind this and he's probably given a todo list to Donny that needs to happen chop-chop.
    Well Biden shuld be able to fund the new planes pretty quickly, especially if the contracts go to Red States. Repugs do love military spending.
    Good idea. Might be useful leverage in getting the rest of his agenda through. Mitch and the boys would eat it up.

  10. Top | #1150
    Loony Running The Asylum ZiprHead's Avatar
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    When conservatives realize they cannot win democratically, they will not abandon conservatism. They will abandon democracy.

    Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor but because we can't satisfy the rich.

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