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Thread: Will China Invade Taiwan?

  1. Top | #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trausti View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Angra Mainyu View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by TV and credit cards View Post
    If China took some military action against Taiwan, there would be a multinational force coming to aid Taiwan, challenging China to fire upon it. And by multinational I mean US and Japan and likely the Brits and Aussies. Beyond that, any local war over Taiwan between the US and China would put a freeze on business between the two nations (and curtail trade between China and all our allies) and interest payments to China on US debt they hold. It would be an economic shit show but in the end, if there be a second cold war, who would ally themselves with China, besides the obvious asshole? Economically, China has too much to lose.
    Japan can't have this in their region. It is a threat to their security. And if Japan joined the US in a shooting war against China, you can bet your boots Japan would muster it's citizenry behind the cause.
    Not many would ally themselves with China. Maybe (depending on how it goes) NK and maybe Russia, though they might just remain technically neutral and Russia might take advantage of the situation (i.e., Kim and Putin). Other countries will not participate militarily, but would remain friendly with China and unfriendly with the US as they are now. On the other hand, not many countries would ally themselves with the US in a war against China, either. The vast majority of countries would very probably remain neutral, though if there is a clear decisive winner some countries might later join the winning side just because it's winning.
    The US is broke and its military has gone Woke. It ain't gonna win a modern conventional war against a symmetrical foe.
    Maybe, but there are a few things one needs to consider:

    1. How symmetrical are they? The point is that US military tech is still ahead, and while China is modernizing fast, advances by US companies that sell to the US military may well keep them ahead, especially in the field of AI. On the other hand, it may well go in the other direction. It's hard to predict when there is so little info and so many variables. In particular, breakthroughs in AI are a wild card in either direction.

    2. China's military, even with growing tech and number of weapons, and has significant organizational problems. Maybe they'll fix that before the war, to a sufficient extent. But again who knows?

    3. One should not discount the tenacity of Taiwanese defenders. These people will be fighting for the survival of their country. If they get weapons advanced enough to give them a fighting chance, it could be a very difficult for China if they choose to invade. In the end, if China beats the US it can blockade Taiwan until it has no food, ammo or anything, and then invade. But that can take a long time.

  2. Top | #32
    Cyborg with a Tiara
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    I didn’t realize the Taiwanese had so much defensive firepower.

  3. Top | #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rhea View Post
    I didn’t realize the Taiwanese had so much defensive firepower.
    Look at their history and it's obvious why they do.
    Tom

  4. Top | #34
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    The only way China benefits is by waltzing into Taiwan and taking over without firing many bullets. Any infrastructure damage in Taiwan gravely lessens the benefits of taking it over. It'd be hard see China taking it over so easily.

    The good news is the US has so much leverage over China, it can just refuse to purchase any more goods it uses from China. Sure, that'll lead to catastrophic economic crash in the US, but we care that much for Taiwan.

  5. Top | #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Higgins View Post
    The only way China benefits is by waltzing into Taiwan and taking over without firing many bullets. Any infrastructure damage in Taiwan gravely lessens the benefits of taking it over.
    But who is China?
    Xi Jinping benefits if he conquers Taiwan, even if he has to do massive damage to get that. He would be seen as the architech of the reunification by the nationalist masses. Perhaps he'll be seen as the greatest chairman ever if he defeats the US.


    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Higgins View Post
    It'd be hard see China taking it over so easily.
    Xi will probably have to sacrifice plenty of his troops, so not easy, I agree.

  6. Top | #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rhea View Post
    I didn’t realize the Taiwanese had so much defensive firepower.
    It doesn't take that much to stop an amphibious invasion. You need overwhelming firepower to force a landing and it's gotten much harder to do that these days. The Harpoon missile can be fired from land vehicles, it probably could be jury-rigged to fire from a large pickup although the driver would have to flee before launch. A bunch of them are hiding 30 miles inland. You'll need some very good air defenses to keep your landing fleet out of Davy Jones' locker. Or what happens when you seed your coastal waters with command-controlled CAPTOR mines? Near the coast there's going to be a lot of crud on the sea floor, sweeping them is going to be very, very hard--and the invaders will be sitting ducks while they're trying to sweep them--and can you be confident you got all of them? Miss one and you'll only find out when sonar screams "torpedo!"

  7. Top | #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Rhea View Post
    I didn’t realize the Taiwanese had so much defensive firepower.
    It doesn't take that much to stop an amphibious invasion. You need overwhelming firepower to force a landing and it's gotten much harder to do that these days. The Harpoon missile can be fired from land vehicles, it probably could be jury-rigged to fire from a large pickup although the driver would have to flee before launch. A bunch of them are hiding 30 miles inland. You'll need some very good air defenses to keep your landing fleet out of Davy Jones' locker. Or what happens when you seed your coastal waters with command-controlled CAPTOR mines? Near the coast there's going to be a lot of crud on the sea floor, sweeping them is going to be very, very hard--and the invaders will be sitting ducks while they're trying to sweep them--and can you be confident you got all of them? Miss one and you'll only find out when sonar screams "torpedo!"
    Air defenses against the Taiwan defenders aren't very important if the Taiwanese air force is previously destroyed, mostly on the ground by a massive missile attack. Still, it's not easy to beat the ground forces in their own territory.

  8. Top | #38
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    Since WWII it's been essentially impossible to make an opposed amphibious landing without air supremacy. Ships are so vulnerable to modern aircraft that they cannot operate in areas where an enemy airforce has even fairly limited capability. Look at the Falklands - a tiny number of Argentine aircraft and aircrews were able to sink Royal Naval vessels that had state of the art defences and their own air support.

    And such combat is massively one sided. Shoot down the attacking aircraft, and the enemy loses a couple of people. But one plane with one missile can sink a ship with a crew of hundreds.

    On D-Day, the allies had air supremacy; A massive advantage in materiel and manpower over the defensive forces (most of whom were successfully decoyed into defending an area outside the invasion zone); And the support of a friendly civilian population in the landing areas. And even then, it was a close run thing, and there was a real possibility that the invasion could have been repulsed.

    I don't think China could successfully invade Taiwan, even if the Americans and other allies promised hand on heart not to do anything to stop them. China could possibly eradicate Taiwan, killing or imprisoning almost everyone and destroying almost every structure in the process. But that would be both hugely expensive (in Chinese lives, as well as money and materiel) and completely pointless.

  9. Top | #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by SLD View Post
    And if so, what should be the U.S. response?
    The response has to be WW3. It's that or China's takeover of the entire South East Asia is inevitable. Their current territorial claims are absurd.

    Quote Originally Posted by SLD View Post
    There’s been a lot of talk about China invading Taiwan in the next few years. CINCPAC warned Congress it could happen very soon. Recently, the Chinese Navy “surrounded” Taiwan, conducting exercises to demonstrate their capabilities. Xi has said he doesn’t want to leave unification to the next generation. And he’s 67.

    Personally I’m skeptical though that China would try and launch a full scale invasion. The political and military risks are too great. This isn’t just some river crossing. China doesn’t have much of an amphibious capability. They have one aircraft carrier and minimal ASW experience. They risk US and many other nations involvement which would threaten trade relations throughout the world.

    Furthermore, it’s not clear they could take the island, although they could do enormous damage to it. Taiwan has significant military assets, and it’s possible they could hit any invasion force pretty hard and make any attempted occupation very, very costly. That’s even if no one comes to Taiwan’s aid. And if the U.S. surreptitiously sends its subs into the strait (which is shallow so that’s risky) they could effectively thwart any invasion fleet.

    So I’m a bit skeptical that they would risk such an overt attempt. But they are likely to do further things to try and intimidate Taiwan into just surrendering without a shot. They may even go so far as establish a blockade. But that’s an act of war and would justify an aggressive response.

    The other concern is the political independence of China’s military. Could the commanders go rogue and just do it, thus compelling China to go whole hog or give up?

    There’s lots of scenarios.

    Thoughts?
    I think what Xi Jinping has in mind is unification, like what happened with Hong Kong. I somehow doubt China will invade Taiwan. While China's economy keeps expanding Xi Jinping's position in China is secure. Why would he risk that?

    China is not Russia. Jinping doesn't sit as security as Putin does.

  10. Top | #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrZoidberg View Post
    I think what Xi Jinping has in mind is unification, like what happened with Hong Kong. I somehow doubt China will invade Taiwan. While China's economy keeps expanding Xi Jinping's position in China is secure. Why would he risk that?

    China is not Russia. Jinping doesn't sit as security as Putin does.
    To be the leader who reunified that last piece of China would be quite an accomplishment for Xi Jinping and a very proud moment for China.

    Though I think China will work toward breaking the morale of Taiwan. To let them know they will never be safe, will be constantly harassed as long as they continue to resist.
    I can’t see any military action being taken by China. Al least not until after the 2022 Olympics.

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