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Thread: Tier 1 Water Shortage for SW appears inevitable

  1. Top | #51
    Elder Contributor barbos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jokodo View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by barbos View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by steve_bank View Post

    I believe the Saudis attempted to do it. Tat was mainstream news.
    People should not be living there, let alone procreate like they do over there.
    There comes a time when one has to acknowledge that one is old enough for what one learnt in school to be no longer true.

    For you (and me) that time has long passed. Saudi Arabia has a total fertility rate (projected lifetime number of children per woman, based on summing current age-specific fertility rates) of 2.3, barely above replacement level. The other rich gulf countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar) are below 2.
    That's still awfully high, stable population has 2.1 fertility rate.
    SA is 35mil now, 20 years ago it was 20mil, 40 years ago -10mil. It's a fucking desert!
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ia-historical/

    I don't really see any evidence of 2.3 on that graph. Could be some funky statistics with including foreign female workers.

    Before oil finally crashes we will have 50-60 millions people in SA alone. This is insane.


    While growth would slow somewhat from the 1980s to 1990s, partially due to the economic impact of the oil-price crash of 1986, the population would continue to increase well into the 21st century, and in 2020, just under 35 million people are estimated to live in the country.

  2. Top | #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by barbos View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Jokodo View Post

    There comes a time when one has to acknowledge that one is old enough for what one learnt in school to be no longer true.

    For you (and me) that time has long passed. Saudi Arabia has a total fertility rate (projected lifetime number of children per woman, based on summing current age-specific fertility rates) of 2.3, barely above replacement level. The other rich gulf countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar) are below 2.
    That's still awfully high, stable population has 2.1 fertility rate.
    SA is 35mil now, 20 years ago it was 20mil, 40 years ago -10mil. It's a fucking desert!
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ia-historical/

    I don't really see any evidence of 2.3 on that graph.
    That's because you aren't looking at a graph of TFR. Population growth lags TFR trends by 2-3 generations. If fertility was previously high, the population keeps growing with a replacement level fertility because there aren't enough old people around for their deaths to match even a moderate number of births. The number of old age deaths (the vast majority of deaths in peacetime and with anything resembling modern medicine) is roughly proportional to the number of people born 70-90 years ago, while the number of births is roughly proportional to the number of people born 20-40 years ago multiplied by fertility. So if fertility was high between 1940 and 1990, births will continue to outnumber deaths (albeit with decreasing margins) even with replacement level fertility until the people born in the 80s and 90s start to die in significant numbers, simply because more people were born in the 80s and 90s than in the 30s and 40s.

    If you want to see a graph of TFR, that's what you should Google for.

  3. Top | #53
    Elder Contributor barbos's Avatar
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    Well, damage is done then? it will most likely balloon to 80mil before they ran out of oil and move to Siberia

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    Quote Originally Posted by barbos View Post
    Well, damage is done then? it will most likely balloon to 80mil before they ran out of oil and move to Europe
    That may or may not be so. It doesn't make your statement about "procreat[ing] like they do over there" any less outdated.

  5. Top | #55
    Elder Contributor barbos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jokodo View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by barbos View Post
    Well, damage is done then? it will most likely balloon to 80mil before they ran out of oil and move to Siberia
    That may or may not be so. It doesn't make your statement about "procreat[ing] like they do over there" any less outdated.
    2.3 is still more than 2.1.

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    Quote Originally Posted by barbos View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Jokodo View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by barbos View Post
    Well, damage is done then? it will most likely balloon to 80mil before they ran out of oil and move to Siberia
    That may or may not be so. It doesn't make your statement about "procreat[ing] like they do over there" any less outdated.
    2.3 is still more than 2.1.
    2.3 and consistently dropping. People who know more about demographics, and about disentangling drivers and effects, than the two of us combined project a peak population of 45-50M around the year 2060.

    https://worldpopulationreview.com/co...bia-population
    Last edited by Jokodo; 06-11-2021 at 11:39 AM. Reason: Add link

  7. Top | #57
    Elder Contributor barbos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jokodo View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by barbos View Post
    2.3 is still more than 2.1.
    2.3 and consistently dropping. People who know more about demographics, and about disentangling drivers and effects, than the two of us combined project a peak population of 45-50M around the year 2060.

    https://worldpopulationreview.com/co...bia-population
    Regardless, these 50-80mil would have to stay in desert, no way they are coming here.

  8. Top | #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by barbos View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Jokodo View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by barbos View Post
    2.3 is still more than 2.1.
    2.3 and consistently dropping. People who know more about demographics, and about disentangling drivers and effects, than the two of us combined project a peak population of 45-50M around the year 2060.

    https://worldpopulationreview.com/co...bia-population
    Regardless, these 50-80mil would have to stay in desert, no way they are coming here.
    It's hard to stay in the desert when you don't exist.

  9. Top | #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jokodo View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by barbos View Post
    Well, damage is done then? it will most likely balloon to 80mil before they ran out of oil and move to Europe
    That may or may not be so. It doesn't make your statement about "procreat[ing] like they do over there" any less outdated.
    Quote Originally Posted by Wikipedia
    The total number of non-Saudis in the country is estimated to be 10,736,293 [and they ARE included in population figures].
    I award the round to Jokodo. And ask for a cite on the "like they do over there."

  10. Top | #60
    Veteran Member bleubird's Avatar
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    https://www.princeton.edu/~ota/disk1/1992/9203/9203.PDF

    We laughed at Wally at the time,but maybe he was on to something.

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