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Thread: Tier 1 Water Shortage for SW appears inevitable

  1. Top | #61
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    South and central American civilizations came and went. Growth to the limits of resources. In one case archeological evidence points to fouling of the water supply from large scale production of building materials involving lime.

    Anyone who thinks population can continue to grow without And is playing solitaire with a short deck.

    Africa as it has been is chronically unable to support existing populations. Chronic poverty, food shortages, and disease.

    The govt predictionis that we will no longer be a net exporter of food with climate change and water shortages.

    I believe India rhas eached its water limit already.

  2. Top | #62
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  3. Top | #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by steve_bank View Post
    Oh, so that's why the drivers are so bad here--they're drunk!

    I wish it were Lake Water.

  4. Top | #64
    Fair dinkum thinkum bilby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by T.G.G. Moogly View Post
    The seas are big. People used to think about the Chesapeake Bay and Lake Erie similarly, just keep dumping the waste there, it won't matter.

    Back on topic, the problem isn't water, it's population.
    Population isn't a problem, it's the objective.

    All of human endeavour is about making life better for the population.

    Population has stopped growing, so the exponential growth fears of the 1960s and '70s are no longer valid.

    We can sustainably improve the lives of the population we have through technology, or we can force people to live in misery; or we can force people to have children only at the say-so of the authorities, or we can commit genocide.

    Those are the options. People who say "population is the problem" either haven't looked at demographics in the last fifty years, or want to be luddites even if that entails being a vile sociopathic cunt.

  5. Top | #65
    Fair dinkum thinkum bilby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by steve_bank View Post
    South and central American civilizations came and went. Growth to the limits of resources. In one case archeological evidence points to fouling of the water supply from large scale production of building materials involving lime.

    Anyone who thinks population can continue to grow without And is playing solitaire with a short deck.
    Anyone who thinks population is going to grow beyond the next couple of decades hasn't paid attention since the 1970s

    It doesn't matter if it CAN. Because it WON'T.
    Africa as it has been is chronically unable to support existing populations. Chronic poverty, food shortages, and disease.
    Africa is a vast continent with huge variations in quality of life. But with very few exceptions, every part of Africa has a wealthier, better fed, and healthier population today than it did forty years ago. Typically FAR wealthier, better fed, and healthier.

    The last major famine in Africa was the one Bob Geldof ranted about at Live Aid. Since then, Ethiopia has approximately trebled its population. No famine. It turns out, population doesn't correlate with famine at all in most of Africa. Famine is a characteristic of war and civil disturbance.
    The govt predictionis that we will no longer be a net exporter of food with climate change and water shortages.
    [citation needed]
    I believe India rhas eached its water limit already.
    Reality doesn't care what you believe.

  6. Top | #66
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    Rwanda and Senegal today have about the same life expectancy and infant mortality the US had in 1960 or Austria in 1968: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator...GH-DE-SN-RW-ET

    Ethiopia is a net exporter of agricultural products*.

    Those African countries that do have significant trade deficits in agricultural products either do so because peasants fleeing conflicts have left the land fallow, like Sudan or Somalia, or because they can afford to rely on imported food due to mineral riches.

    * these statistics are typically based on dollar value rather than nutritional value, so it's conceivable would be unable to feed its population without importing grains even if they were to convert their coffee and rose plantations to grain fields. I'd like to see some actual data before concluding this is true, though.

  7. Top | #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by bilby View Post
    Anyone who thinks population is going to grow beyond the next couple of decades hasn't paid attention since the 1970s

    It doesn't matter if it CAN. Because it WON'T.
    "In the space of one hundred and seventy-six years the Lower Mississippi has shortened itself two hundred and forty-two miles. That is an average of a trifle over one mile and a third per year. Therefore, any calm person, who is not blind or idiotic, can see that in the Old Oolitic Silurian Period,' just a million years ago next November, the Lower Mississippi River was upwards of one million three hundred thousand miles long, and stuck out over the Gulf of Mexico like a fishing-rod. And by the same token any person can see that seven hundred and forty-two years from now the Lower Mississippi will be only a mile and three-quarters long, and Cairo and New Orleans will have joined their streets together, and be plodding comfortably along under a single mayor and a mutual board of aldermen. There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact." - Mark Twain

  8. Top | #68
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    Funny how as things are getting worse some people just keep rationalizing the problem away.

    Over here that generally defines Trump era republicans.

  9. Top | #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by bilby View Post
    We can sustainably improve the lives of the population we have through technology
    We do that, and could do it further but for the foibles of human character.

    or we can force people to live in misery
    We do that too. While overall metrics of health and welfare (life expectancy, quality of life etc.) continue to improve, some populations are forced to live in misery.

    or we can force people to have children only at the say-so of the authorities
    Well, we can try that. But there are dueling authorities - most of the religious ones condone runaway reproduction to increase the ranks of their "faithful".

    or we can commit genocide.
    And we do that also.
    The only question in my mind is whether the next significant decrease in global human population will be man-made or "natural". I anticipate a combination of the two. For example, a good blast of gamma rays from a nearby supernova, a pulsar or even an exceptional solar storm could take out so much infrastructure including transportation and communication, that widespread famine and violence would almost certainly follow.
    Super-volcanoes, impact events and numerous other natural events could bring mass deaths on a scale previously impossible. It is a certainty that some such thing will occur eventually, whether or not we are anticipating and preparing for it (which we are not as of now).

    In the meanwhile, as Hans Rosling points out

    "The world's population will grow to 9 billion over the next 50 years -- and only by raising the living standards of the poorest can we check population growth."

    This is the paradoxical answer that Hans Rosling unveils at TED@Cannes using colorful new data display technology (you'll see).
    TED Talk, worth watching IMHO -

  10. Top | #70
    Fair dinkum thinkum bilby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by steve_bank View Post
    Funny how as things are getting worse some people just keep rationalizing the problem away.

    Over here that generally defines Trump era republicans.
    Funny how people just assert what they believe without bothering to look at whether or not it's true.

    That reminds me of a certain political class too...

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