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Thread: Trump Claims Republicans are "the majority"

  1. Top | #31
    Contributor Cheerful Charlie's Avatar
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    Gallup polling - Part affiliation

    2021 Jun 1‑18

    Republican - 24%
    Independent - 44%
    Democratic - 30%

    Not exactly a majority, now is it? And Independents seem to be more democratic leaning than Republican.
    Cheerful Charlie

  2. Top | #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cheerful Charlie View Post
    Gallup polling - Part affiliation

    2021 Jun 1‑18

    Republican - 24%
    Independent - 44%
    Democratic - 30%

    Not exactly a majority, now is it? And Independents seem to be more democratic leaning than Republican.
    I think there are far fewer "true" Independents (Not to pull a "No True Scotsman" fallacy) than is implied in affiliation polls like the above.

    There's almost zero "centrist" ground left for Conservatives to cling to; those Righties who in ordinary circumstances would prefer to live there. Trump has codified this extremism-or-nothing mindset in which you're either a Fake News, Climate-Change-Denying, Stolen Election bleach-drinker, or you're not really in the GOP tent. The Left has much more middle ground open, and none of that same "stigma" attached to standing in it.

    When I see "Independent" in a poll like this, I tend not to imagine a truly open/undecided/impartial voter, who's equally likely to vote for any Republican as any Democrat, (although some of those obviously exist.) I just don't think THOSE people are anything close to being 44% of the electorate, even though these percentages come from self-identification as such.

    I think *some* non-zero percent of those "Independents" are Conservatives who were (or are) somewhat embarrassed by Trump, and express some buyer's remorse by claiming Independent rather than fly a flag that Trump has highjacked. I similarly think some percentage are Liberals who are a bit turned off by the extremism of the AOC/Squad wing of the Democratic Party, and find the center a way to temper their support of that.

    And surely some are simply so turned off by the whole shit show of our obviously dysfunctional, broken government that they can't in good conscience line up in either of its two branches.

    I just don't believe that the biggest chunk of voters truly has no particular dog in this hunt.

  3. Top | #33
    Super Moderator crazyfingers's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LoAmmo View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Cheerful Charlie View Post
    Gallup polling - Part affiliation

    2021 Jun 1‑18

    Republican - 24%
    Independent - 44%
    Democratic - 30%

    Not exactly a majority, now is it? And Independents seem to be more democratic leaning than Republican.
    I think there are far fewer "true" Independents (Not to pull a "No True Scotsman" fallacy) than is implied in affiliation polls like the above.

    There's almost zero "centrist" ground left for Conservatives to cling to; those Righties who in ordinary circumstances would prefer to live there. Trump has codified this extremism-or-nothing mindset in which you're either a Fake News, Climate-Change-Denying, Stolen Election bleach-drinker, or you're not really in the GOP tent. The Left has much more middle ground open, and none of that same "stigma" attached to standing in it.

    When I see "Independent" in a poll like this, I tend not to imagine a truly open/undecided/impartial voter, who's equally likely to vote for any Republican as any Democrat, (although some of those obviously exist.) I just don't think THOSE people are anything close to being 44% of the electorate, even though these percentages come from self-identification as such.

    I think *some* non-zero percent of those "Independents" are Conservatives who were (or are) somewhat embarrassed by Trump, and express some buyer's remorse by claiming Independent rather than fly a flag that Trump has highjacked. I similarly think some percentage are Liberals who are a bit turned off by the extremism of the AOC/Squad wing of the Democratic Party, and find the center a way to temper their support of that.

    And surely some are simply so turned off by the whole shit show of our obviously dysfunctional, broken government that they can't in good conscience line up in either of its two branches.

    I just don't believe that the biggest chunk of voters truly has no particular dog in this hunt.
    Independents are for sure a mixed back but a few posts up I provided some charts that combine Democrat leaning independents and Republican leaning independents. I think that it provides a better though not perfect picture.

    I'm an independent but I'm more liberal than the Democratic party is. But I suppose that makes me Democratic leaning, from the outside as there is no chance in hell I'd ever vote for a Republican. Democrats are too conservative for me but it's vote for the Democrat or not vote at all. Not voting at all only helps the Republicans.

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